Mehdi on Misunderestimating Miliband

My piece in today's Guardian.

I have a comment piece in today's Guardian that takes on the growing army of critics of the Labour leader, Ed Miliband, and also manages to plug my new biography of him (co-authored with James Macintyre).

I quote George W Bush's famous malaproprism ("They misunderestimated me") and point out that:

. . . the commentariat's hysterical predictions can be safely ignored by the Labour leader and his team. Those pundits who believed Iraq had weapons of mass destruction, predicted a landslide victory for David Cameron at the general election and expected a stroll for David Miliband in the Labour leadership race have little credibility when it comes to forecasting.

Indeed, his critics in parliament and the press are wasting their time; Miliband isn't going anywhere any time soon. He has his eye on the prize -- 10 Downing Street. A close family friend says Ed told him that he had dreamed of being prime minister "as a teenager".

Read the full piece here.

And you can read Sunder Katwala's review of our book -- due to be published in this weekend's Observer -- here.

 

Mehdi Hasan is a contributing writer for the New Statesman and the co-author of Ed: The Milibands and the Making of a Labour Leader. He was the New Statesman's senior editor (politics) from 2009-12.

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Donald Trump's inauguration signals the start of a new and more unstable era

A century in which the world's hegemonic power was a rational actor is about to give way to a more terrifying reality. 

For close to a century, the United States of America has been the world’s paramount superpower, one motivated by, for good and for bad, a rational and predictable series of motivations around its interests and a commitment to a rules-based global order, albeit one caveated by an awareness of the limits of enforcing that against other world powers.

We are now entering a period in which the world’s paramount superpower is neither led by a rational or predictable actor, has no commitment to a rules-based order, and to an extent it has any guiding principle, they are those set forward in Donald Trump’s inaugural: “we will follow two simple rules: hire American and buy American”, “from this day forth, it’s going to be America first, only America first”.

That means that the jousting between Trump and China will only intensify now that he is in office.  The possibility not only of a trade war, but of a hot war, between the two should not be ruled out.

We also have another signal – if it were needed – that he intends to turn a blind eye to the actions of autocrats around the world.

What does that mean for Brexit? It confirms that those who greeted the news that an US-UK trade deal is a “priority” for the incoming administration, including Theresa May, who described Britain as “front of the queue” for a deal with Trump’s America, should prepare themselves for disappointment.

For Europe in general, it confirms what should already been apparent: the nations of Europe are going to have be much, much more self-reliant in terms of their own security. That increases Britain’s leverage as far as the Brexit talks are concerned, in that Britain’s outsized defence spending will allow it acquire goodwill and trade favours in exchange for its role protecting the European Union’s Eastern border.

That might allow May a better deal out of Brexit than she might have got under Hillary Clinton. But there’s a reason why Trump has increased Britain’s heft as far as security and defence are concerned: it’s because his presidency ushers in an era in which we are all much, much less secure. 

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. His daily briefing, Morning Call, provides a quick and essential guide to British politics.