Mehdi Hasan

Mehdi Hasan’s polemical take on politics, economics and foreign affairs

The truth about Gideon

Don't believe the hype: the Chancellor of the Exchequer isn't a political genius.

By Mehdi Hasan Published 23 March 2011 12:56

This morning, I took part in a discussion about George Osborne on Radio 4's Today programme with ConservativeHome's Tim Montgomerie. The media narrative says that the Chancellor's star is in the ascendancy right now. Montgomerie wrote a piece in yesterday's Times (£) in which he observed:

Less than 12 months ago, George Osborne's youthful inexperience and zigzagging judgements were among the principal explanations for why David Cameron didn't win a parliamentary majority. Today, the Chancellor's reputation has been transformed. If you listen carefully enough, people are whispering that he may be the next Conservative leader.

You're having a laugh, aren't you? He continues:

A year ago, the idea of "Boy George" as a future leader would have been unthinkable but doubts over Mr Osborne's ability to be a competent Chancellor are largely gone . . . Mr Osborne still struggles to connect with the public and, although voters may never really warm to him, they never warmed to Margaret Thatcher, either. They respected the Iron Lady and, in time, they may respect him if he fixes the broken economy. That is the hope of the loyal circle that surrounds him. Osborne-ites hope to convince commentators, MPs and the Tory grass roots first. This ripples strategy is slowly producing results. According to ConservativeHome polling, Mr Osborne is now more popular than Mr Hague with party members.

Tim's comment piece followed a glowing and lengthy profile of the Chancellor in the Financial Times at the weekend, in which the paper's political editor, George Parker, writes:

Even today, after ten months in office, Osborne is still something of an enigma. He gives few in-depth interviews and hardly ever talks about his family. Little is known about his extraordinarily central role to everything the coalition does. His team talk about maintaining "the mystique" of the office, but his low profile has also ensured that Osborne does not become the public face of the £81bn cuts programme.

"He's playing a long game," says one Treasury colleague. Osborne knows he is not loved by the public but, if he succeeds, he hopes to earn its respect. Conservative observers say he is "like a submarine", surfacing only to make strategic interventions when he has something important to say, then disappearing for weeks on end.

Parker adds:

At cabinet meetings, fellow ministers say that Osborne makes the expected interventions on the economy but that he is also the minister "for looking round corners". One says: "He can see the political fallout from any decision better than anyone. Sometimes, his contributions are hard to follow, but if you close your eyes and listen you can see the government's strategy coming into place."

It's a well-written and fascinating profile from Parker and the FT but, I'm sorry to say, I just don't buy it. The Chancellor of the Exchequer ain't the master strategist he is made out to be by his supporters and nor is he now a "prime minister-in-waiting". The media's newfound admiration for the Chancellor and the corresponding "cult of Boy George" just don't impress me -- for a range of reasons:

1) Osborne is a very clever and astute politician and is indeed his party's most important strategist; he was the Tories' campaign manager during last year's general election. But -- and here's something Tim should consider the next time he compares Osborne to Margaret Thatcher -- Thatcher managed to win general elections; the Tories, despite Osborne's supposed strategic brilliance, couldn't secure a Commons majority, even though they were facing the most unpopular prime minister in living memory and coming off the back of the worst recession since the Second World War. Osborne failed in his role as campaign chief.

2) He's described in the Parker profile as the coalition's minister "for looking round corners". Perhaps he needs to crane his neck a bit more, then, because he's not very good at it -- this is a government that has executed an array of hasty and humiliating U-turns, from the proposed sell-off of our forests to school sports funding to the appointment of the Prime Minister's personal photographer. Didn't the Chancellor spot any of these ahead of time? And, say what you like about Thatcher, but the lady wasn't for turning.

3) Osborne is praised for being a "political" chancellor but chancellors are judged on their economic -- not political -- legacies. Ask Messrs Lawson and Lamont. Or Tony Barber. And as Harold Macmillan remarked: "Events, dear boy, events." The question is: will Osborne's draconian cuts have a negative or positive impact on "events"? Will they rescue the British economy or imperil the "fragile recovery"? So far, the evidence suggests that they are doing the latter -- unemployment is up, inflation is up, borrowing is up and, crucially, growth is down.

4) Osborne's own political judgement has been suspect. In opposition, the shadow chancellor almost ended his own career when he went to war with Peter Mandelson over "Yachtgate"; Osborne is also the man who suggested to David Cameron that he hire Andy Coulson as his director of communications -- and we all know how that ended.

5) Returning to the Thatcher theme, the Iron Lady exuded calm and confidence; compare and contrast her performances under fire with Osborne's panicked and pale-faced reaction to the negative growth figures that were published in January. The Chancellor was lost for words, blaming "the snow" over and over again (16 times in a single interview). Politicians should be judged on how they behave in a crisis or when the chips are down.

6) Poor Gideon is crippled by the fact that he isn't just an ex-Bullingdon Club toff: 20 years on, he still looks and sounds like a Bullingdon Club toff. He is the real-life personification of the toxic "Tory boy" caricature, right down to his braying, sneering voice. Is it any wonder that the Tories spent £100 an hour on voice coaching for the shadow chancellor in opposition?

7) He might be popular with the press and his pals in the City of London but he has yet to win the trust or affection of the public -- and he is hardly likely to do so in an "age of austerity". As Parker concedes: "[I]t could be said that Osborne has built good relations with just about every group important to his future political success, except one: the electorate." The latest Ipsos-MORI poll shows the shadow chancellor, Ed Balls, has approval ratings of 36 per cent while the Chancellor's are at 35 per cent. Almost half the public (45 per cent) are dissatisfied with Osborne's performance compared to just under a quarter (23 per cent) last year.

The Chancellor told friends before the election that he would be the most unpopular man in the country within six months. Thanks to the human shield that is Nick Clegg, that hasn't happened yet . . . but give it time. By the end of this parliament, I suspect Boy George will make Norman Lamont look like Barack Obama at his peak.

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Tags: Budget 2011 budget deficit Ed Balls George Osborne media

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39 comments

Wed, 2011-03-23 19:05 — Kevin (Irish name) (not verified)

Let's not forget, it was only a few years ago that Gordon Brown was regarded as a great Chancellor and (and as the Prime Minister's obvious successor). Half the Labour front-bench still wanted to offload him before the election.

It doesn't take long for such reputations, however deserved or hard-earned, to be shredded - and whether Osborne is a submarine or a shipwreck remains to be seen.

Wed, 2011-03-23 19:27 — frances smith (not verified)

interesting.

i can see why osborne might have decided on his bonkers deficit reduction strategy in the hope of appealing to the conservative membership, and one day becoming party leader. the only problem would be, however, that he would be leader of a conservative party that would never win again in his life time.

but even if that were his strategy why would the lib dems be daft enough to support it?

the madness of it all will keep the psychologists of the future busy for years!

Fri, 2011-03-25 11:43 — Mr. Divine (not verified)

F All is a perfect name for some people

Wed, 2011-03-23 20:07 — 1R4M

Mehdi
You've been reeeeally quiet lately, barely posting anything online

this is not like u!

Why are we not being treated (not a hint of sarcasm btw) to your amazing and refreshing views, eg on Libya, on Nuclear Power

Wed, 2011-03-23 21:20 — adam (not verified)

At least Gideon is not as combustible as Gordon Brown and I'll bet he tells Cameron what's in the budget before delivering it. Tony Blair never got that privilege and was he too scared to ask.

Wed, 2011-03-23 21:23 — Pam Morgan (not verified)

He may not be a political genius but he's not as "dumb" as Balls.

Pam

Wed, 2011-03-23 21:41 — Gideon Polya

Gideon Osborne is a disaster for ordinary Brits, particularly the sick, workers, unemployed and university students, as well as for the Afghans (3.8 million post-invasion excess deaths from war-imposed deprivation, 2.7 million post-invasion under-5 infant deaths, possibly 1 million violent deaths, 3-4 million refugees) (UN Population Division and UNHCR data; see Afghan Holocaust, Afghan Genocide: https://sites.google.com/site/afghanholocaustafghangenocide/).

Gideon Osborne and all but 13 MPs of the HOC (House of Criminals) have now started the Libyan War that may eventually transmute to a Libyan Holocaust and Libyan Genocide after the fashion of the neocon Tory-Labor-backed Iraqi Holocaust and Iraqi Genocide (see: https://sites.google.com/site/iraqiholocaustiraqigenocide/; 1.2 million post-invasion non-violent excess deaths from war-imposed deprivation, 0.8 million post-invasion under-5 infant deaths, 1.4 million post-invasion violent deaths, 5-6 million refugees, 4.5 million violent and non-violent excess deaths 1990-2011 and 2.0 million under-5 infant deaths, 1990-2011).

Because of these racist, genocidal, anti-Arab anti-Semitic, Tory-Lib-Lab mass murders and war crimes, I am personally relieved that Gideon Osborne rejected the name Gideon (so greatly enhanced by wonderful people such as Gidon Kramer and Gideon Levy) in favor of "George" (the porphyria-maddened psychopath George III raped Ireland, Wales, Scotland, the Americas, Africa, Australia and India, 10 million Indians starving to death in the Great Bengal Famine alone, 1769-1770).

According to George (baptised Gideon) Osborne (2005) on his age 13 name change: "It was my small act of rebellion. I never liked it. When I finally told my mother she said, 'Nor do I'. So I decided to be George after my grandfather, who was a war hero. Life was easier as a George; it was a straightforward name" (see: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Osborne ).

The French-UK-US (FUKUS) Coalition is devastating Libya but decent anti-war Brits could well ask of ex-Gideon Osborne, "Why .... us?"

Wed, 2011-03-23 23:06 — FA

As someone said this is a little catty and calling him "Gideon" a tad immature.

As for the substance:

1. Osborne wasn't solely in charge - the view on the right is that had he been, his more aggressive partisan approach would have ensured a majority and it was Cameron's desire for a concensual approach and image that cost a majority. We'll never know - but either way the Tories got the same % of votes as Labour in 2005 and in the next election the constituencies will favour them.

2. Osborne can't police all his colleagues and interestingly HE hasn't had any screw-ups.

3. Chancellors are praised in hindsight for their economic skills not in the present day. Everyone wants jam today. Osborne has gone for a combination of the economic and political - his deficit cutting is not political or easy, its for the economic greater good as he sees it. Nonetheless he throws in crowd pleasers (taxing private jets).

4. This goes to the first point - Osborne is aggressive, a rightwing Ed Balls. Cameron isn't. And now Cameron is in charge he's wearing the trousers.

5. This is a non-point and frankly a little childish

6. I'll return to this since its the most important point in the blog

7. Osborne, from a business family, is less sympathetic to the City than Cameron (and Brown) is - he much prefers being the champion of small business so this is just an inaccurate stab. But Osborne knows he doesn't go down well with the public (tieing in to 6) unlike Brown - this is one of the foundations of the relationship with Cameron; Osborne will never threaten Cameron.

And back to 6. - Osborne gets the goat of people like Hasan and other leftwing journalists almost entirely because of who he is. Osborne isn't particularly rightwing - however the hate campaign against him means he won't be Cameron's successor. Someone else will be. Someone I imagine genuinely very rightwing. The perilous consequences of character assasination!

Wed, 2011-03-23 23:30 — swatantra nandanwar

You're absolutely right. The man couldn't stomach being called Gideon and was perfectly entitled to change to George Osborne (a character in Vanity Fair). Also why call him 'Boy George' since it does a great diservice to Kevin O'Dowd of Culture Club.
Osborne will never be Leader and seems to have swallowed a frog and a permanent scowl on his face.

Fri, 2011-03-25 13:29 — C Baker

I've known 2 people that felt obliged to change their names. One was a vietnamese boat person refugee who joined my school. The other was a muslim worker called Aalim tht his co workers in the uk found easier to call 'John'. In both instances this was wrong. That is a fault of the British in many ways. An inability to learn other languages.

Inverted snobery or racism is not a good thing. Ths article displays both.
Let's judge people not on their names, race or culture, but their talents.

This article is very childish. It doesn't even mention economics or alternative solutions.

Wed, 2011-03-30 12:22 — nomad (not verified)

'... He gives few in-depth interviews...'

Thats because he knows he will be exposed for the shallow chancer he is. Just as Ed Balls exposed him last week during the budget debate.

It seems he doesn't even know how much tax is raised by petrol duty.

He's a boy in a mans job.

Thu, 2011-03-24 12:42 — Mr. Divine (not verified)

Gideon is a perfect name for some people. It tells you that the person has a weird thing to say to you that it is partly funny, a bit sad and essentially useless.

Thu, 2011-03-24 13:05 — T Andrews (not verified)

Mehdi, I'm a big fan of yours, but please, drop the cliched old political standards, eh? In the last week I've seen you write about a 'summer of discontent', quote Churchill's 'end of the beginning' and in this article regurgitate the 'Events, dear boy...' line.

You're too good a writer to need them, why can't you resist? Are you trying to get a pundit's slot on Sky News or something?

Thu, 2011-03-24 13:42 — Axmed

If I may question the following, please ["Osborne is a very clever and astute politician..." ]- it is your proper a point view on him. I thought he was a part of the celebrity culture! Cheers,

Fri, 2011-07-08 16:50 — Anthony2

The solution to the 2008 crisis didn't solve the underlying problems and in fact made them much worse. what was required was a big market correction but this was avoided with western government's increasing debt further (we were borrowing even when we had booming tax receipts from the property and finance sectors), printing money and lowering interest rates to near zero. http://www.howtoinstalllaminateflooring.org/

Thu, 2011-03-24 15:24 — dillon (not verified)

show some respect to this man,,his name is george osbourne not(gideon),this petty snide class war insult towards george is getting a bit tedious now,,,when the party opposite was in power,we had plenty of posh boys and girls with double barrelled names,,,but thats ok,, there leftys...

Thu, 2011-03-24 15:35 — FA

"Gideon is a perfect name for some people."

There's nothing wrong with the name Gideon - it is a biblical name, that of a noble Jewish warrior. It isn't Tarquin or something.

Sun, 2011-03-27 00:47 — Seaman T

This is the age of the celebrity. They are all manufactured products, specially designed to suit the popular taste of a fickle public. We all like to think we are street wise, but most people under fifty have not had time to know much. The smart ones do what Posh George Osborne does and keep their heads down and their mouths closed in the hope people will imagine them to know all the answers, then quietly ask someone older who might have seen it all before. Which is not such a bad thing, as long as they keep good company.

Thu, 2011-03-24 19:58 — Eddy S (not verified)

gids will need to contend with the biggest market crash ever seen in the not so distant future.

the solution to the 2008 crisis didn't solve the underlying problems and in fact made them much worse. what was required was a big market correction but this was avoided with western government's increasing debt further (we were borrowing even when we had booming tax reciepts from the property and finance sectors), printing money and lowering interest rates to near zero.

the problem is a general one for the west and when one of the euro zone PIGS defaults (as they surely will) the domino effect will be like no other, the near future will see appetite for gov't debt evaporate and most of the west will have to spend what they earn or pay silly interest rates for the privilege to borrow - the era of cheap money will end and with it the era of paper currency. if banks, investment/pension funds and indeed other public institutions want to avoid financial disaster avoid, property and government debt. the price of gold/commodities will double again as the remaining store of value. only china will come up on top from the next crisis.

Wed, 2011-03-23 13:23 — georgep

Thats all a bit catty.
But yeah, he is viewed by the electorate as a bit of a joke. Unfortunatly, a very powerful one.

Mon, 2011-03-28 14:01 — Dr Cath Collins...

Big mistake for Osborne to climax on petrol duty in the Budget speech (and take seven minutes to say it). He should have known that a 1p cut won't be felt or appreciated by anyone, and would be overtaken by price rises as soon as he announced it. Some strategist.

Wed, 2011-03-23 13:36 — swatantra nandanwar

I'm afraid George is just a one track pony. Other than the economy, he has no real interests.
Talk of him being Leader is laughable.The next Laeder of the Tory Party will be a toss up between Theresa May and Cleggy.

Wed, 2011-03-23 13:56 — Whig (not verified)

Good article - I really can't see him ever becoming leader though as he just doesn't have the appeal with ordinary voters.

Mon, 2011-03-28 14:08 — Barny

Osbourne: Anyone else think he looks like a piece of veal?

Wed, 2011-03-23 13:59 — Keir

Like a submarine, eh. One would go by submarine a) to disguise an intention to commit antisocial acts; or b) to disguise one's inability to navigate.

Or for both reasons, of course.

Wed, 2011-03-23 14:14 — Hugh Markey (not verified)

What's all this talk about 'Tom Brown's Schoolboys'? If ever Flashman were to materialise in human[ just suppose] form, he would find a ready-made receptacle - George Osborne

Wed, 2011-03-23 14:36 — REPAY

The economic legacy doesn't look great so far...overall the "cuts" simply aren't happening. "Government spending is rising £90 billion a year over five years." Governments find it hard to encourage (they can't create it) sustainable growth and so far the private sector has taken most of the strain of the recession. Seems the worst of both worlds...

Wed, 2011-03-23 15:03 — Chris Hobson (not verified)

Hype is generated by demagogic journalists like yourself, overusing that overly used name for the chancellor "Gideon". I realize you have to be a contrarian in your profession but this is journalism of the red top nature.

Wed, 2011-03-23 15:06 — Dave C (not verified)

"the most unpopular prime minister in living memory"

I'd like to see the stats, but surely Thatcher and Heath are contenders for that crown?

Wed, 2011-03-23 15:14 — Dave C (not verified)

"chancellors are judged on their economic, not political, legacies."

Up to a point, Lord Copper. Roy Jenkins' 1968 budget is generally judged to have been economically correct, but the measures, such as putting up prescription charges, were politically disastrous. In the following May elections, Labour lost seats everywhere.

Wed, 2011-03-23 16:47 — Livers (not verified)

GO the master strategist might want to peek round the corner on NHS "reforms" ... it is gonna get ugly and it's a mess all of their own making.

I also see the markets spiralled on the revised growth forecasts, politics are nothing to do with that, and that will be his (and unfortunately ours) ultimate undoing --- outcomes. We are all in this together it would seem.

He is a politician and not an economist and it shows.

Wed, 2011-03-23 16:55 — Tanino (not verified)

Half of what was said in this article is predictable propaganda, the rest is rather accurate. I agree that his wealthy demeanour is something of a hindrance, as is his principled and courageous decision to send his children to fee paying schools.

Wed, 2011-03-23 17:32 — Rick (not verified)

"According to ConservativeHome polling, Mr Osborne is now more popular than Mr Hague with party members." - No shit. I bet the Ebola virus is more popular than party members than William Hague.

"Is it any wonder that the Tories spent £100-an-hour on voice coaching for the shadow chancellor in opposition?" - Jesus. What did his voice sound like before? I'd be asking for a refund if I were them.

The mainstream media love Gideon as none of his policies will be upsetting their cosy little applecart. Whilst it's only us getting shafted they don't mind.

Wed, 2011-03-23 17:35 — snark (not verified)

You forgot the compromised wife (hat tip, McBride). Actually, I fail to see the problem with voice coaching - they all do it. I'm certain the Mili-brats have been taught how to say 'gub-mint' in a classless way...

Fri, 2011-03-25 09:20 — Clem the Gem

Hugh M- How dare you traduce the character of Harry Flashman! The pallid, toad-like Gideon has something flowing through his veins, but not the red blood of Flashy!

Wed, 2011-03-23 18:20 — Richard Tagart

Maybe it's because I live on the other side of The Channel, but I've not the faintest idea why people call Osborne 'Gideon'. Anyone care to enlighten this poor, benighted Continental?