Mehdi Hasan

Mehdi Hasan’s polemical take on politics, economics and foreign affairs

Syndicate contentRSS

Beware Labour’s deficit hawks

The party’s Hooverites are encircling Ed Miliband.

In my column this week ("Let Miliband be Miliband"), I argue that the new Labour leader has to stand up to pressure from the Tories, the media and the Blairites inside his own party, who want him to tack to the right and conform to conventional wisdom.

With the departure of his elder brother, David ("Labour's lost leader", wails the headline in the Murdoch-owned, Tory-supporting Times), the pressure on Ed to "moderate" some of his positions has intensified. "He has to move right on the deficit," a Mili-D supporter told me in Manchester, as if deficit reduction is a right/left issue. It isn't: it is a right/wrong issue.

But Labour's deficit hawks are getting more and more vocal. The outgoing shadow chancellor, Alistair Darling, warned against the party retreating from his four-year-halve-the-deficit plan at the conference in Manchester, and said Labour had to be "realistic and credible". The former City minister Kitty Ussher, now head of the think tank Demos, used a column in yesterday's Financial Times to urge Miliband to "toughen up on cuts":

The changed environment must now spur him to harden, not soften, [the Darling] position.

"Changed environment"? What could she be referring to? The rather convenient IMF report, published on Tuesday, which praised the coalition's austerity measures — despite the Fund having warned a fortnight ago that "[m]ost advanced countries should not tighten fiscal policies before 2011: tightening sooner could undermine recovery"? Perhaps she missed the economist Adam Posen's remarks this week. From the FT:

The UK faces a long period of sluggish growth, with high unemployment and falling prices, unless the authorities act quickly to stimulate the economy, an influential adviser to the Bank of England has warned.

Sounding the alarm over the possibility of years of stagnation, Adam Posen, an external member of the Monetary Policy Committee, rejected the upbeat arguments issued on Monday by the International Monetary Fund about the economy's nascent recovery.

With the prospect of a repeat of 1930s stagnation rather than 1970s inflation, Mr Posen urged the Bank to restart the money printing presses to inject more life into the economy.

Posen, rather ominously, added:

Let us not forget that it was sustained high unemployment and austerity, the sense that governments were unresponsive to average people's dire economic conditions, which led to the rise of extremist intolerant parties in pre-war Europe.

The current debate over deficit reduction is being conducted on the basis of politics, not economics. The Blairite deficit hawks, fans of triangulation, want to meet Cameron and Osborne somewhere in the "middle", regardless of the fragility of the economic recovery, the lessons of economic history or the principles of Keynesian demand management.

Their central, short-term goal is to prevent Ed Balls from securing the shadow chancellor's brief, even though Balls is the party's best economist and an unrivalled attacker of the Tories (see Gove, Michael). His Bloomberg speech, outlining a progressive and Keynesian alternative to the coalition's cuts agenda, has been hailed by commentators and economists from across the spectrum.

In fact, despite whispers about him lacking "credibility" on the deficit, Balls's position is backed by the Nobel Prize-winning economists Paul Krugman and Joseph Stiglitz, the Financial Times duo Martin Wolf and Samuel Brittan, and the governor of the US Federal Reserve (and scholar of the Great Depression), Ben Bernanke. Are they not "credible" enough for the British commentariat or the Labour right? Personally, I think the words "credible" and "credibility" should be banned from all discussions of the deficit.

(On a side note, on the subject of language, before Labour members or supporters get upset with me for using the derogatory phrase "Hooverites" in the standfirst — above — I should point out that I'm quoting Joe Stiglitz here. He told me, in an interview back in February, that deferring to the credit ratings agencies and "scaremongering" about the debt marked a victory for the "Hooverites" over the "Keynesians".)

I was delighted, however, to see Ed M tell Channel 4 News last night that he would want to tax more than the Darling plan allows for, and it is important that the debate over deficit reduction revolves not just around the timing for cutting, halving or eliminating the state's overdraft, but also the preferred ratio of spending-cuts-to-tax-rises. Ed Balls was the first Labour leadership candidate to argue that Labour's plan should be based on a 50:50 ratio between the two and to point out that Norman Lamont and Kenneth Clarke used a similar ratio when the Tories were cutting the deficit in the 1990s.

I happen to believe that Balls is the best candidate for the job of shadow chancellor (and I made my case for him in my column last week). Others have suggested Yvette Cooper, who is also a strong candidate with an impressive CV. But, outside of this particular married couple, who are the other candidates for the job? Are there any? And will they help Labour stand up to the economic illiteracy of the coalition's fiscal sadists?

Ed M — over to you.

12 comments

LabMike's picture

@Bill: http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/6080418/osbornes-headache.thtml

"The below chart sums up the extraordinary announcement from the Office for Budget Responsibility. George Osborne did his best to maintain the “things are worse than we thought” line but the reverse is true. Unemployment, inflation, the deficit – everything is better than not only the Treasury forecast but better than the market had been preparing for."

"That is to say, Osborne’s manifesto pledge – to eliminate “the bulk” of the structural deficit – would have happened under Darling. So no extra cut, or tax hike, is needed to meet this pledge."

The extra cuts are ideological, for sure.

Hans Castorp's picture

" "credible" and "credibility" should be banned from all discussions of the deficit."

Indeed. I remember the last major political figure to be obsessed with these words was Henry Kissinger.

Also, credibility in whose eyes? The vast majority of government debt is held in-country. No credibility problem there for a long time.

Bill's picture

You say that the "current debate over deficit reduction is being conducted on the basis of politics, not economics" yet then talk about Ed Balls's "progressive" alternative. There are two separate debates to be had in relation to the cuts, their speed, and their severity: the ideological/political debate and the economic debate, yet here and elsewhere you constantly conflate and confuse the two. The effect of this intellectual dishonesty is to give the impression that the cuts are being done so quickly for purely political reasons, whereas your opposition is based entirely on economic sense. That may well be the case, but you also need to acknowledge that there is an economic motivation behind the coalition's cuts, and a political/ideological demension to your opposition to them. Otherwise your argument is diminished.

writeoff's picture

Disagree Bill. There is a befuddled economic excuse behind the cuts, but the motivation is purely political. We have a corporate world which has latched on to this austerity rhetoric to slash wages and crap on their workers whilst dressing it up as tough love too. This is why the system is stifling the truth. You diminish your own argument by reducing the issue to speed and severity.

Alison's picture

Agree with you Mehdi, but that's an economic argument, not a political one. Economics is never certain. As Balls not actually in power not much value in 'being right' on economics, as his approach will not be tested. If, and a big if, things don't end badly for govt, and growth is boosted by other means, then by taking an oppositional or even an alternative stance Ball's position will be blown out of the water (regardless of the fact that it wd be because govt gets lucky).

But, if Miliband agrees to some cuts, but nowhere near as severe, and argues more shd be done thru' taxes, he puts himself in a stronger position politically, regardless of outcome surely?

If things turn out OK (haha) he can say wasn't against cuts, if things turn out badly he can say it was because of the timing and severity of the cuts, and that possibly the economics was faulty.

Just a thought.

vanrisszcu's picture

Hold on Alison, neither Ed M nor Ed B say they are opposed to all cuts. They're opposed to the timing of cuts and the extent of cuts and the current coalition ratio of cuts to tax rises.

Luddite's picture

The welfare system, the creation of the reforming Labour government of 1945. Was a contributory system, you paid in you got paid out, at times of 'genuine' need.

Alison's picture

Ed B set out a 'credible alternative path for growth, jobs, continued recovery and the eventual reduction of the deficit'. More deficit reduction by growth rather than cuts - which I happen to agree with to large extent.

It's looking like EdM's political strategy is leaning towards the Darling plan, with a bit of EdB thrown in - eg shorter timing than Ed B, and reducing deficit via cuts but with taxes taking more of the burden.

It doesn't seem to me that they are saying the same thing. EdB's plan seems to imply far less cuts, it is an economic argument, EdM is adopting a political strategy, because it's hard to win an economic argument that you are not in a position to test.

But maybe I've got the wrong end of the stick - I'm not an economist - or a politician :)

ACMJ's picture

It will be interesting to see how Ed handles the situation . The questions to be asked , are Firstly :
How much will the Labour leadership allow Ed miliband to be his "own man"?
The cuts are important , but the average voter is really more concerned about how the cuts will affect him/her , than the country as a whole . Therefore how idealistic can Ed be without being realistic ?
Ed has to find out from his party canvassers as to whether , making cuts was a real major issue with the average voter ,whose homes they paid their visits to during the campaigning .
Can Ed Miliband make clear to the voters as to what he means by saying Labour will not be opposing all the cuts, in opposition ?
As to the highly publicised IMF report , which George Osborne and the BBC are jumping up and down about , in excitement , "Gorgeous Boy George" forgot to tell the country that the IMF warned against a "down side " which was reflected by IMF managing director Dominique Strauss-Kahn , who also told a conference in Oslo 17 days ago that , “We must acknowledge that the crisis will not be over until unemployment declines significantly”, calling growth and jobs the “most urgent problems”. That really does not sound like a thumbs up For the Coalition Government's plans , and you may well find that much of the recovery figures was due to the previous Government , and not the current fledgling coalition .
Can Ed Miliband take those facts into account and hammer it home to the his doubters, and also point out that the IMF report does not totally condone Osborne's plans ?
Osborne's are short sighted ,thoughtless and filled with Thatcherite ideology, rather than realism .

Rob's picture

A strong anti line on the public sector cuts and supporting all attempts by public sector unions to protect EVERY job and EVERY occupationsl pension term/condition is a core vote strategy.

It will cement Labour;s support in their heartlands where public sector employment is high as a proportion of total, and alienate them from the southern seats they need to win back in 2015.

Worst possible strategy for them.

Labour, like the Tories, have got a core vote of around 30%. Core vote strategies don't work.

Robert Taggart's picture

Liebour deficit hawks... IF ONLY !
Liebour = deficit deniers !

Fat Bloke on Tour's picture

Mehdi

The correct term for a right wing establishment slash and burn merchant is a "dog boiler".

They are so called because they would rather, in a time of great economic stress, the poor and unemployed boiled the family pet for sustenance than provide a decent level of state support.

Regarding the OBR report, it was written on the back of a fag packet by a known Tory partisan. The stuff on the structural/cyclical split in the deficit was particularly political, another year of below trend growth and the cyclical deficit gets smaller! Aye right as they say in G1.

On the IMF report, FB had an orgasm reading out the report on the news. You know there are dog boilers everywhere.

Tory deficit reduction plans are totally political. Dave the Rave is using the credit crunch and the fear it is generating to take the hatchet to the TB/GB welfare state as he and his ilk don't want to pay the tax to support it.

As always he is a total chancer but at least now he is being true to himself and his own.

Early stuff about following the TB/GB spending plans was total flannel to keep the electorate sweet.

He want to cut and cut hard so that he has some room for tax cuts in 2014/15 which is funnily enough the pre-election year of his grand plan. Nothing economic about it just pure naked politics.

Latest tweets