Mehdi Hasan

Mehdi Hasan’s polemical take on politics, economics and foreign affairs

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The next Labour leader will be called Miliband

The first proper poll of Labour members confirms that this is a two-horse race.

My column in the magazine this week is on the subject of the Labour leadership election and the "operation", both inside and outside the party, to target the man with the momentum, Ed Miliband, and portray him as a wild-eyed, left-wing extremist -- a "Bennite", a throwback to the 1980s. (Incidentally, the proud Labour "rightist" and Ed M supporter Luke Akehurst has a rather interesting rebuttal to this ludicrous charge on his blog.)

Meanwhile, the Ed Balls camp has been in touch to firmly deny the report in my column that its man has "privately conceded" that he "cannot win". But Balls's campaign has failed to take off, despite his robust and repeated attacks on the coalition and, in particular, on the surprisingly hapless Michael Gove.

Tthere's more bad news for the shadow education secretary today: the first proper poll in this leadership election, of almost 2,500 Labour members and trade unionists, found Balls trailing in last place, behind Andy Burnham and Diane Abbott -- fifth out of five candidates.

The poll adds weight to the idea that this is now a two-horse race and that the next Labour leader will be called Miliband. From the Press Association:

David Miliband is set to be the new Labour leader, edging out his younger brother Ed in what is becoming a two-horse race, according to a new poll.

The YouGov survey for the Sun predicted that the Milibands will leave rivals Ed Balls, Diane Abbott and Andy Burnham trailing to claim the first two places in Labour's electoral college of MPs and MEPs, party members and affiliated organisations including unions.

When the defeated candidates' votes are redistributed, shadow foreign secretary David would beat shadow energy secretary Ed by a margin of 54 per cent to 46 per cent, the poll found.

With the race so close, it's no surprise that both Miliband brothers are said to be desperate to have Ed B's second-preference endorsement -- in particular Ed M, who has narrowed the gap with his elder brother but has yet to overtake him or "break through".

Will Balls offer a second-pref endorsement at all? And if so, will it be for his "Blairite" rival of the past decade, David Miliband, or for his once-junior colleague at the Treasury, Ed Miliband? I'm told that the shadow education secretary has yet to make up his mind -- but if/when it comes, such a move could prove to be the turning point in this increasingly dull and drab Labour leadership election.

UPDATE:

David Miliband will be delighted that he secured the endorsement of Gillian Duffy, Gordon Brown's nemesis and a member of the Unite union (which endorsed brother Ed). In a semi-dig at his elder sibling's publicity stunt, Ed has been joking with friends that perhaps he should go in search of Sharron Storer's endorsement.

UPDATE 2:

It's worth checking out Jim Pickard's post over at the FT Westminster blog, which examines how the polls were hopelessly wrong in predicting the result of Labour's deputy leadership contest in 2007. (Hat-tip: "Will M" in the comment thread below.)

15 comments

stuart's picture

well say what you like about gordon brown, but at least he had passion about his job and when needed gave a few people a freindly little slap behind the ears to wake them up and threw the odd mobile phone here and there in frustration,now i prefer a leader like that than some eton educated ponce with a plum in his throat no offence meant to ed miilband who does not have a clue about how the ordinary man and womens day to day struggle to survive in these hard time we are all facing,i say bring back gordon brown, everybody deserves a second chance..

John Bracewell's picture

All 5 are a pretty poor bunch. 1 that displays the worst characteristics of the ex-PM, 3 non-descript ex-ministers that showed no bottle to remove Brown and a no-hoper.

Clem the Gem's picture

@britriot - Genocide is a precise term, and not to be bandied around and devalued - look it up.

I have to agree with anyone who bemoans the lack of decent candidates, and it is a travesty that we are also not electing a new deputy.What a shame Cruddas isnt standing, a crediblecentrist. In effect, my vote will be firstly for Abbot, and secondly for Ed M. The problems that we are left with at the end of New labour are similar to those the tories faced - a paucity of talent after long years in govt, and an intellectual unwillingness to reclaim our heritage. Add to this an unwillingness to admit just how unpopular we are at the moment, and no ammount of coalition blunders and cuts will get them out. We need a vibrant, campaigning party that is willing to start from basics.

britriot's picture

Lets see. Labour supported the invasion and genocide in Iraq and Afghanistan. Labour supports Israel without questioning its genocidal tendencies towards Palestinians. Labour supports Pakistans military dictatorship and the hideous ISI. And we call Labour progressive ?!!! What a joke.

Arthur Williamson's picture

TrevorH - "how can labour vote for someone looking like Marin Bormann"

Well Maggie Thatcher looked like the back end of a double decker bus but that never stopped her winning 3 consecutive general elections.

Josh FG's picture

Ed Balls on the Guardian Politics Weekly the other day was quite clear that Ed Miliband was closest to him politically so one assumes he's best placed.

Will M's picture

Worth bearing in mind that for the Deputy leadership election, the polls were more or less irrelevant. Details here, for example: http://blogs.ft.com/westminster/2010/07/how-the-opinion-polls-were-wrong...

Dave C's picture

When my own CLP came to nominate for leader recently, the votes were as follows:

Abbott 3

Balls 3

Burnham 0

Miliband, David 9

Miliband, Ed 9

When the Abbott and Balls votes were eliminated in the second ballot, they all went to Ed Miliband. (Others present chose not to vote as they thought nominating for leader at that stage was a waste of time and breath.)

So I think it's likely that Ed Miliband will get the Balls votes.

Susan Allan's picture

DREAD Miliband! And whoever the chirp bringing old and new labour together is. I ACTUALLY PAID for a labour member ship and the ONLY REASON I LEFT is because they ripped me off! YES they took MORE MONEY out of my account without my permission so I CUT THEM OFF, BEFORE the war thankfully! Neck and up to it comes to mind! It's not toppling Saddam, it's the lack of tact, THE NOT KNOWING WHEN TO GET OUT, the "There are no weapons of mass destruction in this country signs" the COMPLETE LACK OF CONTROL reality! Bye bye politics because frankly? U've lost it. Please line up at the hague.

ROBERT TAGGART's picture

Next Liebour leader will be called Silly Milly by moi !
Yes, the Millies are 'educated' but they are also Geeky, Nerdy, worse - Metropolitan !

ang's picture

I know this sounds cruel, cause it's only a name, but no matter how good he is and I think he is, we cannot have Prime minister Balls, the worldwide press would have a field day! Sorry ed.

maxinemf's picture

It is a strange world indeed when the Conservative Party looks more forward looking and progressive on the question of Israel. Gaza is an open prison and it is Israel that needs to be brought to account for the holding of 1.5 million Palestinians hostage to an imposed siege by Israel. I would really like to have a proper and informed debate on the Palestine question as the Labour Party I feel is too slow to condemn Israel. David Milliband is far too timid on the subject. Clearly the softly softly approach to Israel as advocated by David Milliband has not worked. Look at the stolen passport issue: why has that story gone quiet. It is my sincere hope that whoever is elected to become Labour leader will adopt an approach which is bolder than that of the Conservative Party. The Labour Party's position on Palestine is already looking outmoded and irrelevant.

Dave C's picture

@Sue "we cannot have Prime minister Balls"

It shouldn't be a problem.

The Germans had a Mr. Cabbage as their leader (Helmut Kohl).

And who can forget the former South Korean foreign minister, Lee Bum Suk?

TrevorH's picture

Its not only the name; how can labour vote for someone looking like Marin Bormann

Ambrose's picture

# Susan Allan
The Labour Party did not take money from your Bank account, your BANK gave it to them, so take it up with your BANK.
With comprehension like yours I should think that even the Tory Party would not want you, and that really is saying something.

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