Mehdi Hasan

Mehdi Hasan’s polemical take on politics, economics and foreign affairs

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A night of failure

My negative take on the results.

Sorry to be so negative the morning after the election, but here is my initial, sleepy reading of a largely unreadable result: it has been a miserable failure for pretty much everyone.

Labour failed to retain its majority and failed to emerge as the largest single party in this shiny, new, hung parliament of ours -- something some of the polls had suggested, and some Labour strategists had been hoping for, until only a few days ago.

The Liberal Democrats failed to translate their "surge" into seats and failed to "break the mould" of British politics -- more like a medium-sized dent. To win fewer seats than they did in 2005 is embarrassing.

And the Tories failed to win even a small majority, despite Gordon Brown's unpopularity, the worst recession in decades, the biggest financial crash in a hundred years, the expenses scandal, Lord Ashcroft's millions, Bigotgate, the various Labour leadership coups, and the fact that they were up against a party that had been in power for 13 long years. The dawn of Dave? Not quite. (Oh, and when Cameron says that Labour has "lost its mandate to govern our country", he is right. The problem for him is that he hasn't won a mandate to replace it. In the end, four and a half years of "modernising" leadership just wasn't enough . . .)

Another failure, perhaps the biggest failure of all, has been the democratic failure. It is a national disgrace that voters were turned away from polling stations, disenfranchised during the closest general election in 36 years. We have, in the words of the Electoral Commission chair, a voting system that is "Victorian" and "not fit for purpose". In various corners of the country, democracy failed on 6 May 2010. Will we ever again be able to send election monitors abroad with their heads held high?

UPDATE: Actually, it hasn't all been bad. Great to see success for Caroline Lucas in Brighton Pavilion -- and the election of Britain's first Green MP. And I'm delighted to see the humiliating defeat for the neo-fascist Nick Griffin and the BNP in Barking. Perfect!

UPDATE 2: Here also are my predictions from last night, which, I think (!), still hold true:

* No party will gain an overall majority -- parliament will be hung. (Seeing as how I predicted a hung parliament nearly a year ago, it would be odd to pull back from that prediction now.)

* Ed Balls will retain his Morley and Outwood seat.

* Turnout will be higher than 70 per cent -- again, a prediction I made a while ago (on LBC, in an interview with Iain Dale!) and one I'm sticking with.

* The Conservatives will emerge as the largest single party.

* Labour will come second, not third in the popular vote. Its vote share and number of seats will exceed the 1983 totals.

* Gordon Brown will still be PM at 1pm on Friday.

 

 

 

 

6 comments

jeremiah's picture

It was a disappointing night.

However we should at least be thankful that Dave doesn't have a majority.

I thought one of the most interesting interviews of the night was with Paddy Ashdown. He feared the Ulstermen holding the rest of the UK to ransom. I agree with him on that score.

Nick Clegg should be careful though. Any formal coalition with the Tories will probably split his party and perhaps force a second election.

A second election that Dave might win a large majority

Che's picture

Nick Clegg is either about to do something rather intelligent or something very stupid.

By intelligent I mean allow the conservatives to have the first crack of the whip but refusing what the tories offer, thus maintaining the veneer of doing what's right but not selling out.

and by something stupid I mean ruin the reputation of the liberal democrats and cause disrepute within the party by actually accepting the conservatives offer.

The Old Man's picture

This old instinctive Tory is happy enough. The sheer size of swing needed was always to big a mountain to climb.

What can happen now?

Dave can tell Nick to go to hell, which is my preference. He leads the party with by far the greatest number of votes and seats, so he could form a government and dare Nick to bring him down. I expect the Libs really want another kicking.

Or Nick could drink at the well Brown has poisoned, get hitched to a loser, it would be an easy mistake to make. Dave can then sit back and wait for the inevitable crash, and clean up at the subsequent election.

Leftie journos always assume that a Lib vote is a 'progressive' vote, a serious error that confuses activists with voters. Look at where the Libs win seats, and look at where they have lost seats now Nick has shot his mouth off about scrapping Trident and giving illegals an amnesty. 'Progressive consensus'? There isn't one.

Sue Davies's picture

I think most of the population fall on the spectrum democratic socialist to one nation tory - ie to the left of all three political parties - hence idiosyncratic voting for the least worst option. Nick Clegg has really stitched up the Lib Dems! Thank God for Caroline Lucas... perhaps she can show the left a way forward.

writeon1's picture

Today, as I was out and about, people kept asking me, "What is it with this British system? How come Labour gets five times as many seats yet has a share of the vote only marginally better then the Liberals? How is it that the Conservatives have "won" yet the vast majority of the voters rejected them?

Explaining the UK electoral system abroad is hard work, golly, most British people don't undertand it anymore!

I usually end up telling people that the UK insn't really a democracy at all, rather it's a form of very sophisticated dictatorship, where political power resides with the "strongest" or "biggest" party, which isn't necessarily "popular" or liked by the majority of the people.

It's this paradox that confuses most of the people I talk to down at the harbour; they equate democracy with the number of votes a party gets, but the UK system is based on seats won, not the number of votes a party gets nationally.

After a few minutes talking to me most people shake their heads and simply don't believe what I'm telling them, even though I bend over backwards to put a positive spin on a frankly grotesque system.

Of course the electoral system is designed specifically NOT to be too democractic and put a structural barrier between the wishes of the people and their "representatives", sure it's a ridiculous mess, but madness with a method.

writeon1's picture

I have to admit that I don't take the whole voting and electoral ritual too seriously. I try, but I can't.

Given a "choice" between three more-or-less conservative parties just doesn't do it for me. I can't summon any real enthusiasm for these elections anymore. What's extraordinary is how many people take the rhetoric and ritual, the cut and thrust, the play-acting, so incredibly seriously. Surely it's obviuous that it's merely an elaborate game designed to divert attention away from where real power in society is concentrated and who weilds it?

My brother has real power. He's part of the "Market." He's a banker and he gets to "vote" almost every day about government policy, unlike ordinary people who are restricted to a vote every few years.

Let's be honest. The electoral system is a grotesque and dangerous farce. It's obvious why it's grotesque, but it's also dangerous because for lots of people the ghastly, short-sighted, irresponsible and unrealistic policies of the politicians, are dragging us all down, and the collapse will hit small people hardest, ruining their lives and crushing their dreams, and there's nothing remotely amusing about that.

Is this system really reformable? The short answer is "no" it isn't. Not as long as we simply refuse to examine where and who has power in society and what they do with it and for whose benefit? This is why the leaders of the main parties shy away from talking about power or anything close to it.

It's the dishonesty, hypocracy and cowardice of the political leaders I can't stand. But being a skilled liar seems to be the main qualification for politics these days.

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