Icelandic volcanoes and Cameron's "big society"

State vs society, part 94.

Surprise, surprise. The airline industry is on its knees, in the wake of the volcanic eruptions in Iceland which have grounded flights across Europe, and bosses are already calling for "state intervention" - code, methinks, for "bailout". Isn't it ironic (hypocritical?) how private companies demand an end to "intrusive" and "statist" regulation and intervention in the good times, but demand "state intervention" in the form of cash bailouts from the taxpayer in the bad times? Privatize the gains, socialise the losses, eh?

So it's Labour's "big state" to the rescue. What else would you expect? I mean, how many of Edmund Burke's "little platoons" would it take to get stranded British holidaymakers back from Spain?

In fact, speaking to blogger Sadie Smith this morning, I was amused to hear her compare TV presenter Dan Snow's failed attempt to rescue Brits stuck in Calais with five dinghies - which was followed by the government's announcement to deploy three Royal Navy ships - to the debate over the big society versus the big state. On this issue, like so many others, the latter trumps the former.

Mehdi Hasan is a contributing writer for the New Statesman and the co-author of Ed: The Milibands and the Making of a Labour Leader. He was the New Statesman's senior editor (politics) from 2009-12.

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Can Philip Hammond save the Conservatives from public anger at their DUP deal?

The Chancellor has the wriggle room to get close to the DUP's spending increase – but emotion matters more than facts in politics.

The magic money tree exists, and it is growing in Northern Ireland. That’s the attack line that Labour will throw at Theresa May in the wake of her £1bn deal with the DUP to keep her party in office.

It’s worth noting that while £1bn is a big deal in terms of Northern Ireland’s budget – just a touch under £10bn in 2016/17 – as far as the total expenditure of the British government goes, it’s peanuts.

The British government spent £778bn last year – we’re talking about spending an amount of money in Northern Ireland over the course of two years that the NHS loses in pen theft over the course of one in England. To match the increase in relative terms, you’d be looking at a £35bn increase in spending.

But, of course, political arguments are about gut instinct rather than actual numbers. The perception that the streets of Antrim are being paved by gold while the public realm in England, Scotland and Wales falls into disrepair is a real danger to the Conservatives.

But the good news for them is that last year Philip Hammond tweaked his targets to give himself greater headroom in case of a Brexit shock. Now the Tories have experienced a shock of a different kind – a Corbyn shock. That shock was partly due to the Labour leader’s good campaign and May’s bad campaign, but it was also powered by anger at cuts to schools and anger among NHS workers at Jeremy Hunt’s stewardship of the NHS. Conservative MPs have already made it clear to May that the party must not go to the country again while defending cuts to school spending.

Hammond can get to slightly under that £35bn and still stick to his targets. That will mean that the DUP still get to rave about their higher-than-average increase, while avoiding another election in which cuts to schools are front-and-centre. But whether that deprives Labour of their “cuts for you, but not for them” attack line is another question entirely. 

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. His daily briefing, Morning Call, provides a quick and essential guide to domestic and global politics.

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