What will the Conservatives do if Labour comes third in votes but first in seats?
Will they have a leg to stand on?
By Mehdi Hasan Published 25 April 2010 12:10The top Tory blogger Iain Dale notes Labour's third place in "virtually every poll" and asks: "Isn't that a BIG STORY?"
He adds:
The even bigger story is that Labour comes third but Gordon Brown still clings to the premiership. And I'm not talking football.
If that happened I can foresee marches on Downing Street. And I'll happily be at the front!
For me, the bigger story is how Labour could indeed end up third in the share of the popular vote but still emerge top in number of seats. What, if this happens, will the Conservatives do? What will David Cameron's strategists be telling him "the line" is on the morning of 7 May?
I asked a senior Tory-supporting journalist what he would advise Cameron to say in such an event and he just shrugged his shoulders. The Tories could hardly proclaim it an outrage -- even though, to be honest, it would be -- or cry "We wuz robbed!" or organise protest marches, seeing how they have remained the only party committed to defending the current dysfunctional, disproportionate first-past-the-post voting system. They would not have a leg to stand on. And anyone who saw Liam Fox squirming on the Daily Politics last week as Andrew Neil put this point to him will be aware of how tough a spot the Tories would be in.
Might Cameron consider electoral reform in exchange for a Labour-blocking deal with the Lib Dems? The Observer seems to think so -- the headline on its interview with the Tory leader is: "David Cameron leaves door open for poll deal with Liberal Democrats". The paper's political duo, Andrew Rawnsley and Toby Helm, write:
But when pressed on whether, in the event of a hung parliament, he would be prepared to discuss the Lib Dems' central demand for electoral reform -- something he has always opposed until now -- he declines to rule it out. When it was put to him that refusal to move on the issue could mean the Lib Dems teaming up with Labour to push through electoral reform anyway, the Tory leader says: "We think this is an important issue."
Cameron's comments suggest the Tories may now be prepared to put reform of the voting system on the table in coalition talks, rather than allow the issue to be a "deal breaker". After being asked four times to rule out such discussions on electoral reform, Cameron said: "Put the question in, you know, Serbo-Croat, if you want to -- but you're going to get the same answer." Labour has promised a referendum on the alternative vote system.
There are indeed Lib Dems close to Nick Clegg who have privately suggested that Cameron might be willing to put electoral reform "on the table". But my two problems with the Observer story are: 1) Cameron tells Rawnsley and Helm in the same interview: "I want us to keep the current system that enables you to throw a government out of office. That is my view." It's a line he has taken time and again during this campaign and he would look ridiculously opportunistic and cynical if he dropped the Tories' centuries-old commitment to first-past-the-post at the first sign that Labour might be able to cling on to power in a hung parliament. And 2) his own party wouldn't agree to such a deal.
Cameron, for short-term, tactical reasons (ie, his own survival as party leader), might (might!) be willing to entertain the idea of some form of compromise on electoral reform in order to get his foot through the door of No 10 Downing Street, but his party, for long-term, strategic reasons, would remain implacably opposed to electoral reform. The Tories would argue (in agreement with Polly Toynbee) that proportional representation would deny them their "divine" right to rule alone in future and would keep the party out of power for much longer, with Labour and the Lib Dems more likely to form "progressive" coalitions in office under PR.
So here's a question for Iain Dale: if Brown "clings" on to power after 6 May, despite coming third, and you join the front of a march on Downing Street, will you be carrying a placard proclaiming, "Time for PR"? If not, why not?
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23 comments
i very happy that brown is losing.
david cameron and nick glegg will join forces and lead the way.
bye bye brown !
well what a suprise i was walking to my ghost town--- ---town centre and as i was passing a posh ousing estate and yes i mean posh £300000 plus house detached i spot the bloody tories campaigning for their votes and knocking on their brass door handle nobs well well well well why are they not in a council estate
IT SEEMS THE LIB DEMS VOTE IS FALLING RATHER FAST , WELL MR GLEGG BLEW IT WHEN HE REFUSED TO WORK WITH MR BROWN . THATS WHEN HE BLEW ANY CHANCE BECOUSE HES LEFT THE CENTER LEFT BYE FAR THE LARGEST FACTION OF BRITISH POLITICS UN ABLE TO PUT TOGETHER A COALITION TO BLOCK THE CONS , LABOUR CANT FIGHT A SWING TO THE CONS AND ALSO TO THE LIB DEMS . UNLIKE TONY BLAIR IF CAMRON PULLS IT OF IT WONT BE ANY LANDSLIDE LIKE IN 1997 FOR LABOUR . MR CAMRON WILL NOT HAVE A MANDATE .
ITS NOT OVER TILL THE FAT LADEY SINGS LABOUR CAN LIFT IT A BIT YET BEFORE POLLING DAY , BEFORE CLEGG ALL THE TALK WAS HOW BROWN HAD BASICLY COUGHT THE CONS FROM BEING 26% BEHIND . DONT RIGHT LABOUR OF JUST YET DO SO AT YOUR OWN PERIL.
JACK STRAW , AND DAVID BLUNKET WILL BE HELD RESPONSIBLE BYE LABOUR VOTERS FOR GIVE US A TORIE GOVENMENT . JACK STRAW AND BLUNKET WHO IS IGNORENT WHEN IT COMES TO KNOWING ANYTHING ABOUT COALITION GOVENMENT OR PR . . WHY DONT THEY BOTH TAKE A CABNET SEAT WITH CAMRON THE BASTERDS .
FOR GOD SAKE MAN BE FAIR GO BACK AND LOOK AT HISTORY SEE HOW MANY TIMES THE TORIES HAVE WON MORE SEATS WITH LESS VOTES THAN THE OPPOSITION PARY NOW HOWELS OF UN FAIR THEN ESPESHLY FROM THE TORIES . THIS IS A NON ARGUMENT BECOUSE BOTH LABOUR AND THE TORIES HAVE BEEN EFFECTED BYE THIS IN THE PASSED . THEY NEVER MENTION HOW MANY TIMES THE TORIES HAVE TAKEN MORE SEATS THAN LABOUR OR THE LIBS IN HOUR HISTORY ? IS IT ONLY BAD IF LABOUR GETS MORE SEATS WITH LESS VOTES FOR ONCE OR SOMETHING BUT ITS OK FORN THE CONSERVITIVES GET REAL MATE .
Could someone please turn Bernards hearing aid up a notch - his bellowing at us is becoming intolerable.
Buying him a dictionary might also be helpful.
GLEGG IS A IDIOT.
GOODBYE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS YOUR FINISHED.
But Nick Clegg is saying he won't prop up the 'irrelevant' Brown... I can see real problems for the Lib Dems in supporting Cameron.. it has far more members and MP's, who would identify with the LP of Ed Milliband than the Thatcherite Cameroons. What no-one is saying is that ideology matters.
i saw a picture of mr osborne good god the man looks like hes had his soul sucked out .you people would put him in charge ? right lol . you have been brain washed over half of the con cacus is hard right thatcherite , realy seriously WAKE THE .... UP.the only way to keep murdock and the banksters and littile margret ie mr camron and his crooks out and know they will not get a chance to run this country into the ground like last time they were in is to vote labour.
NICK CLEGGS A LOOSER DUE TO HIS INEXPERIENCE HES GOING TO TAKE A DEAL WITH THE CONSERVITIVES . THERE WILL BE NO ELECTROL REFOEM JUST ENDLESS DEBATE , AND NEXT ELECTIONS UNDER FIRST PASSED THE POST , THEN THE LIBREL DEMOCRATS ARE DOOMED , NO ONE WILL EVER LISTEN TO THE LIB DEMS WINGE ABOUT THE ELECTROL REFORM EVER AGAIN . WHAT AN IDIOT CLEGG IT WILL BE ALL GIVEN AWAY AN THE EXCUSE THE RECESSION , AND THE MAEKETS . YOU HAVE SINGED YOUR PARTYS SUICIDE NOTE .
its not cleggs fault even though he stinks , its all labours fault , blunkett , straw andy ill never be labour leader and hoey , they are responsible for giveing us the tories them and only them , espeshly kate h, the rotton cow.I WILL BLAME LABOUR AND THESE FEW LABOUR MPS FOR THE TORIE GOVENMENT . LABOUR CAN DRP DEAD AND GUTLESS DAVID MILLIBAND WITH THEM , THEY CAN ALL GO TO HELL .
bernard
PIPE DOWN YOU MORON !RIC
NEXT ELECTION LEFTYS WILL PUNISH TRATORS LIKE KATE HOEY AND BLUNKETT AND STRAW ETC BYE VOTEING FOR THE GREENS . ILL TEACH LABOUR SELFISH TRIBLISTS WELL SPLIT THE LABOUR VOTE NOW FOR YEARS . NEVER AGAIN WILL I VOTE FOR THESE RICH LABOUR MPS NOT ONE WORKER NOT ONE FACTORY WORKER LEFT IN THE LABOUR PARTY . THEY ARE ALL CHAMPAIGN SOCIALISTS , RICH WEALTHY BUSINESS PEOPLE LAYWERS AND ACCOUNTANTS ? TORIES REALY . GET STUFFED LABOUR .AND GET STUFFED KATE HOEY YOU TRATOR.
Browns our only hope.
Funnily enough I had a #labourdoorstep discussion with a Lib Dem and a Lib Dem/Labour swinger yesterday. Neither of them planning to vote in our constituency, though if they did it would be 1-1. The Lib Dem - who plans to take part in the LD toppling of David Davis in Haltemprice and Howden asked what I thought about the voting system and would it be fair if such a scenario came to pass. I support the constituency link and think say 5-seat SCs would be a problem. Perhaps 2-seat SCs with one woman, one man? Some top up MPs? AV+ or STV. But I also pointed out that it is not Labour's "fault" (or in the past the Tories "fault") that our supporters flock together geographically in the way they do. If we did have SCs and AV we'd see FAR MORE of our Labour voters turning out. A 40-45% turn out in Manchester Central or Liverpool Riverside or Salford provides a numerically low total of voters for three seats. But much of the other 55-60% of the voters are most likely Labour too. And popular vote rhetoric based on the current FPTP single-member constituencies falls down because of this arithmetic and this reality. If we had a different system people would vote in different ways and in different numbers. And - suck this up Mr Clegg - one particular thing that would happen is that your rag-bag coalition of voters would go home to Lab, Tory, socialist, Green, even hard right places. The Lib Dems stand to COLLAPSE under PR. How about that then?
A plague on all their houses. There hasn't been a democratic election since 1931.
I agree Bedrnard! Clegg has shown himself up, and seemingly thrown away a lot of his manifesto! Mind you I can't see how Clegg and Cameron will climb into bed, it'll be a hasty divorce! Think Clegg's stumbling block is Brown more than anything else, it would be a different picture if Milliband was on the end of the phone!
Don't vote LibDem. You know it makes sense not to.
Why might Labour come third in votes nationally?
Because shedloads of Labour supporters voted tactically for the LibDems in Con/LibDem marginals.
I think Mr Clegg might just have lost himself a lot of seats with his half baked announcement this morning.
Too true Robert... I vote Lib Dem tactically and it gave me pause for thought.... I am pretty sure that the LD MP here would have real problems in supporting the Tories, but it doesn't make any sense for me to vote Lib Dem to keep out the Tory if they're just going to be in coalition together!
well ive been proven right and labour is telling the truth A VOTE FOR THE LIB DEMS IS JUST A VOTE FOR CAMRONS THATCHERITE TORIES , MR GLEGG SAID SO HIMSELF TODAY , HE PREFERS TO PROP UP THE TORIES . IT WILL BE INTRESTING IF HIS ADMISSION SPARKS ARE LATE SURGE BACK TO LABOUR I PREDICT IT WILL WATCH THOSE POLLS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS . VOTE LABOUR KEEP LITTLE MARGRETS TORIES OUT .
WELL THE SADEST THING IS LABOUR AND THE LIB DEMS HAVE A 60% VOTEING BLOCK AGAINST LITTLE MARGERT AND HIS CONSERVITIVES AND MR GLEGG JUST WASTED IT . THERE WILL BE A SWING OF 6 OR 7 % BACK TO LABOUR AS THEY WERE JUST 2 OR 3 POINTS BEHIND LITTLE MARGRET AND HIS TORIES BEFORE THE LIB DEM SURGE . I PREDICT MR BROWN WILL WIN THE THERD LEADERS DEBATE EVEN MORE DECISIFLY THAN HE WON THE SECOND DEBATE. this is great news for labour thanks mr glegg for admitting you dont want to work with labour . all those people what was it 65% want a lab lib dem coalition will now swing back to labour .the game is up fpr little margret and his would be lapdog mr clegg.