The Tories could still lose

They haven't yet "sealed the deal" with the electorate

The Times has more bad news for the Prime Minister. Its front-page headline proclaims: "Give us any leader but Brown, say voters".

Nine months at most from a general election, a Populus poll for the Times suggests that 48 per cent of voters believe that "literally anyone" from Labour's ranks could do better, without naming alternatives. Only a third say that Mr Brown is the best leader available to Labour.

"Without naming alternatives" is the key point, however. Other polls suggest that when alternatives are named (be they Miliband, Johnson, Harman, or whoever), Labour's poll ratings remain far below those of the Conservatives. (Then again, Polly Toynbee and others are right to remind us of the inevitable "honeymoon period" that all new leaders benefit from, including Gordon Brown in the summer of 2007.)

With or without Brown, things look bad for Labour. But, the other bit from the Times piece that sticks out is the graphic on the front page, which shows the opposition party's support ahead of various landmark general elections: in September 1978 (Thatcher's Tories at 48 per cent), in September 1996 (Blair's New Labour at 50 per cent) and, today, in September 2009 (Cameron's Conservatives at 41 per cent). As the accompanying text helpfully adds:

The Tories are, however, doing less well than Labour in opposition in 1996 (on 50 per cent) or the Tories in 1978 (48 per cent).

So isn't there still a chance of a hung parliament (as I have long suspected there might be)? The public, according to Populus, disagrees:

The number thinking that there will be a hung parliament has fallen by 5 points to 20 per cent. Some 17 per cent (up 2 points) think that Labour will win an overall majority.

But if, as in previous years, and as the Times concedes, the opposition party loses support in the final months before the general election, where will that leave Cameron's Conservatives next May? I'm no psephologist, but isn't a Tory opposition that's polling in the mid-to-late 30s in the run-up to an election contested under a first-past-the-post system with a bias towards Labour heading for a hung parliament?

As Leo McKinstry argued so persuasively and forcefully in the New Statesman back in May:

The national opinion polls are, of course, bleak for the government, but then they also were at the time of the European elections in 2004, a year before Blair's third triumph. The average Tory lead of 10-12 per cent in recent months might look healthy, but, in truth, if replicated at a general election, it would be barely enough to win. After three successive landslide defeats, the task facing the Conservatives at the next election is daunting.

Taking account of boundary changes, they have to gain at least 112 seats to form an overall majority in the Commons. That would require a 7.1 swing, the equivalent of an 11 per cent lead over Labour in the national British vote, far beyond the scale of anything achieved by a previous Tory opposition.

It is a remarkable historical fact that since the end of the Victorian age, the Conservatives have only once turned out a government which possessed a working majority in parliament. That occurred in 1970, when Ted Heath -- defying conventional wisdom and the polls -- defeated Harold Wilson's government, though even then the swing was 4.7 per cent, significantly lower than that needed by Cameron.

Every other Tory victory since 1900 has been against a dying coalition or Labour government which had lost its majority, or never held one.

So, despite today's Populus poll in the Times, the verdict of a piece I co-wrote with my colleague James Macintyre in June still stands:

In the mid-1990s, the late Roy Jenkins compared Tony Blair's mission in leading New Labour to victory to that of an elderly and frail butler carrying a priceless vase from one side of a room to another. Today, Labour is down but not out. And it should be repeated: the Tories have yet to seal the deal with the British electorate. David Cameron must hope that his fragile party doesn't slip and stumble before election day.

Mehdi Hasan is a contributing writer for the New Statesman and the co-author of Ed: The Milibands and the Making of a Labour Leader. He was the New Statesman's senior editor (politics) from 2009-12.

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Election 2017: The 50 Labour MPs most at risk of losing their seats

Dozens of Labour MPs are at risk of losing their seats on June 8. Here are the 50 sitting MPs most at risk. 

Labour MPs representing marginal seats are at risk of losing their seats should their party's low polling numbers translate into electoral reality. Here's a full list of the 50 sitting MPs with the smallest majorities. 

Chris Matheson – City of Chester
Majority: 93 (0.2 per cent of total turnout)
Second place in 2015: Conservatives

Rupa Huq – Ealing Central & Acton
Majority: 274 (0.5 per cent)
Second place in 2015: Conservatives

Albert Owen – Ynys Mon
Majority: 229 (0.6 per cent)
Second place in 2015: Plaid Cymru

Ruth Cadbury – Brentford & Isleworth
Majority: 465 (0.9 per cent)
Second place in 2015: Conservatives

Margaret Greenwood – Wirral West
Majority: 417 (0.9 per cent)
Second place in 2015: Conservatives

Holly Lynch – Halifax
Majority: 428 (1 per cent)
Second place in 2015: Conservatives

Daniel Zeichner – Cambridge
Majority: 599 (1.1 per cent)
Second place in 2015: Liberal Democrats

Wes Streeting – Ilford North
Majority: 589 (1.2 per cent)
Second place in 2015: Conservatives

Paul Farrelly – Newcastle-under-Lyme
Majority: 650 (1.5 per cent)
Second place in 2015: Conservatives

John Woodcock – Barrow & Furness
Majority: 795 (1.8 per cent)
Second place in 2015: Conservatives

Tulip Siddiq – Hampstead & Kilburn
Majority: 1138 (2.1 per cent)
Second place in 2015: Conservatives

Joan Ryan – Enfield North
Majority: 1086 (2.3 per cent)
Second place in 2015: Conservatives

Peter Kyle – Hove
Majority: 1236 (2.4 per cent)
Second place in 2015: Conservatives

Paula Sheriff – Dewsbury
Majority: 1451 (2.3 per cent)
Second place in 2015: Conservatives

Cat Smith – Lancaster & Fleetwood
Majority: 1265 (3.1 per cent)
Second place in 2015: Conservatives

Natascha Engel - North East Derbyshire
Majority: 1883 (3.9 per cent)
Second place in 2015: Conservatives

Gareth Thomas – Harrow West
Majority: 2208 (4.8 per cent)
Second place in 2015: Conservatives

Madeleine Moon – Bridgend
Majority: 1927 (4.9 per cent)
Second place in 2015: Conservatives

Karen Buck – Westminster North
Majority: 1977 (5 per cent)
Second place in 2015: Conservatives

Iain Murray – Edinburgh South
Majority: 2637 (5.3 per cent)
Second place in 2015: SNP

Rosena Allin-Khan – Tooting
Majority: 2842 (5.3 per cent)
Second place in 2015: Conservatives

Ian Lucas – Wrexham
Majority: 1831 (5.6 per cent)
Second place in 2015: Conservatives

Richard Burden – Birmingham Northfield
Majority: 2509 (5.9 per cent)
Second place in 2015: Conservatives

Mary Creagh – Wakefield
Majority: 2613 (6.1 per cent)
Second place in 2015: Conservatives
 

Vernon Coaker – Gedling
Majority: 2986 (6.2 per cent)
Second place in 2015: Conservatives

Clive Efford – Eltham
Majority: 2693 (6.2 per cent)
Second place in 2015: Conservatives

Rob Flello - Stoke-on-Trent South
Majority: 2539 (6.5 per cent)
Second place in 2015: Conservatives

Susan Jones – Clwyd South
Majority: 2402 (6.8 per cent)
Second place in 2015: Conservatives

Jim Cunningham – Coventry South
Majority: 3188 (7.3 per cent)
Second place in 2015: Conservatives

Jenny Chapman – Darlington
Majority: 3024 (7.6 per cent)
Second place in 2015: Conservatives

David Hanson – Delyn
Majority: 2930 (7.7 per cent)
Second place in 2015: Conservatives

Gordon Marsden – Blackpool South
Majority: 2585 (8 per cent)
Second place in 2015: Conservatives

Julie Cooper – Burnley
Majority: 3244 (8.1 per cent)
Second place in 2015: Liberal Democrats

Mark Tami – Alyn & Deeside
Majority: 3343 (8.1 per cent)
Second place in 2015: Conservatives

Nic Dakin – Scunthorpe
Majority: 3134 (8.5 per cent)
Second place in 2015: Conservatives

Kerry McCarthy – Bristol East
Majority: 3980 (8.6 per cent)
Second place in 2015: Conservatives

Paul Flynn – Newport West
Majority: 3510 (8.7 per cent)
Second place in 2015: Conservatives

Alan Whitehead - Southampton Test
Majority: 3810 (8.8 per cent)
Second place in 2015: Conservatives

Neil Coyle – Bermondsey & Old Southwark
Majority: 4489 (8.8 per cent)
Second place in 2015: Liberal Democrats

Lindsay Hoyle (Deputy speaker) – Chorley
Majority: 4530 (8.8 per cent)
Second place in 2015: Conservatives

Helen Goodman – Bishop Auckland
Majority: 3508 (8.9 per cent)
Second place in 2015: Conservatives

Thangam Debbonaire – Bristol West
Majority: 5673 (8.9 per cent)
Second place in 2015: Green

Geoffrey Robinson – Coventry North West
Majority: 4509 (10 per cent)
Second place in 2015: Conservative

Graham Jones – Hyndburn
Majority: 4400 (10.2 per cent)
Second place in 2015: Conservatives

David Crausby – Bolton North East
Majority: 4377 (10.2 per cent)
Second place in 2015: Conservatives

Ivan Lewis - Bury South
Majority: 3508 (8.9 per cent)
Second place in 2015: Conservatives

Liz McInnes – Heywood & Middleton
Majority: 5299 (10.9 per cent)
Second place in 2015: Ukip

Alison McGovern – Wirral South
Majority: 4599 (11 per cent)
Second place in 2015: Conservatives

Alan Meale – Mansfield
Majority: 5135 (11.3 per cent)
Second place in 2015: Conservatives

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