The Brown revolution begins

Unlike 1997, they were not cheering in the streets, but the arrival of the new prime minister could

Slowly but relentlessly the Brown revolution is coming. It's a funny sort of insurrection, characterised by caution and stealth rather than the flag-waving and dancing in the streets that would usually accompany such momentous events. It has none of the fanfare that greeted that mildest of political insurgencies - the arrival of new Labour in power a decade ago. But there are already signs that the new era could, potentially, be far more radical than anything Tony Blair thought possible.

The commitment to constitutional reform, announced in the speech with which Gordon Brown launched his leadership campaign, looked to some like a smokescreen to hide the lack of hard policy. The subsequent approach to Lord Ashdown to serve in a "cabinet of all the talents" demonstrated that Brown was indeed ready to usher in genuine change in the way we do politics in Britain.

Now those around the new Prime Minister are preparing to take a significant step which would mark a paradigm shift in the political culture.

A Bill of Rights, enshrining the human rights and social responsibilities of each person under law, would go some way to transforming the relationship between the individual and the state. Britons would begin to make the journey from being subjects to becoming citizens. There are those within the Brown camp who believe it could also help clarify the rights established by incorporating the European Convention on Human Rights into British law. Although no one is suggesting sweeping aside the Human Rights Act, despite the hostility shown to it by the right-wing press, it is thought that a domestic Bill of Rights would have a more distinctly British feel.

Brown's determination to reform the way we are governed, from local councils right up to the post of prime minister itself, is deeply felt. The mechanism for bringing about the reforms is already in place. Citizens' juries would discuss the various options for reform, before recommendations were passed to a constitutional convention of experts and campaigners for reform. The proposals put to parliament would remain highly consultative, in what one Brown adviser says would be "the greenest green paper you have ever seen". At each step the emphasis would be on gaining the views of the public, experts, interest groups and MPs.

The resulting Bill of Rights, with Brown's much vaunted "Britishness" written down in black and white, would then be used in schools and citizenship ceremonies to establish a set of commonly held values.

Professor Francesca Klug of the London School of Economics, whom Brown has quoted in his speeches, says the PM must be careful not to use the bill to water down what has already been established. "We already effectively have a Bill of Rights. It's called the Human Rights Act. But it was brought in with the minimum of consultation and no attempt was made to sell it to the British public. If they go further it should be with the engagement with the British people to establish the rights they actually want written down."

The discussion is already well advanced. Klug, for instance, will be presenting a pamphlet - entitled What Is A Bill of Rights For? - at a seminar for the Brownite think tank the Smith Institute at Downing Street in just over a week's time.

Coming round

A further shift in the political landscape is marked by the open discussion over electoral reform, once a no-go area for Labour politicians. After years of resistance, Brown and many of those around him have warmed to the idea, in principle at least, of shaking up the way we vote for those who represent us in parliament. The new PM remains unconvinced by any system that severs the link to the constituency and is deeply sceptical of anything that involves centrally controlled party lists. But he is coming round to the belief that the first-past-the-post system is past its sell-by date.

As the New Statesman reported three weeks ago, those around Brown are looking carefully at the "alternative vote" system in which people place candidates in a constituency in order of preference. Second preferences are transferred as candidates drop out until one person gets more than 50 per cent of the vote. This was the process used to elect Brown's deputy, Harriet Harman, so what's good enough for the Labour Party could turn out to be good enough for the rest of Britain. Harman herself is known to be sympathetic to change as are the Brownite power couple Ed Balls and Yvette Cooper. But there are still those in the inner circle such as the West Bromwich MP, Tom Watson, who have been vocal cheerleaders for the retention of the present system.

Nevertheless, campaigners have sensed that change is in the air. The Electoral Reform Society has launched a publicity campaign welcoming Brown into his new job. Carefully worded, its advertisements make a series of demands that the new PM would find it hard to disagree with. All elections should be genuine contests; voters should be able to rank their choice in order of preference and the political system should better reflect the views and diversity of the electorate. "Gordon Brown has kept his cards very close to his chest on this," says Ken Ritchie, chief executive of the Electoral Reform Society. "This is not an argument he has needed to have until now. But as leader everything is different."

As with the Bill of Rights, nothing will be announced as a done deal. Brown intends to have a lengthy cabinet discussion even before he announces the consultation process. He will be tapping into an appetite for change within the parliamentary Labour Party and even the government itself. One minister approached the NS this week to argue that he now believed the abolition of the first-past-the post system was essential to renewing politics. Even Jack Straw's historical allegiance to first-past-the-post is said to be weakening.

With all parties increasingly concentrating their resources on the small number of marginal seats necessary to win an election, there is the growing feeling that change is essential to ensure that citizens feel their vote really matters. Although some will argue that a switch to the "alternative vote" system will still not produce a parliament that accurately reflects each party's share of the vote, compromise is in the air. John Denham, for instance, the chair of the Home Affairs Select Committee, who has long been an advocate of reform, is said to have been persuaded that the alternative vote system may provide a pragmatic solution.

In his swansong performance to parliament, Blair admitted what his critics had long suspected, that he was not "a House of Commons man". Nor, he could have said, was he much of a cabinet man, nor a true Labour Party man. Brown has already pledged to be all three. But those who have worked with a man hardly known for his collegiate manner remain to be convinced.

Real man emerges

The first stage of the Brown revolution has to begin with the man himself. The process of coronation has been good for him. He visibly relaxed as the day approached. One close friend says there are now signs that the real Gordon Brown is finally emerging: "I'm just happy for him and you can see that he is beginning to enjoy himself. The smile is really his smile now."

But old habits die hard. Brown and his inner circle have developed a near addiction to conspiracy and their paranoia has often been tangible. I had a taste of this when I first took the job as the NS political editor. After my first column, which discussed one of David Blunkett's several misdemeanours, Sky News reported this as a Brownite plot to destabilise one of Tony Blair's closest allies (this magazine is wrongly seen in some circles as sympathetic to the Brown cause). However, when I mentioned this conspiracy theory to two ministerial allies of the chancellor at Labour conference a few days later, they had already convinced themselves they were indeed responsible for the plot against Blunkett. Every political journalist has a similar story to tell.

Many remain to be convinced that a politician who has saved his most intimate political thoughts for a handful of trusted allies and advisers will be prepared to take on board the views of cabinet colleagues, let alone the wider public.

The irony of the present situation, where Brown has wanted to save all announcements for the cabinet and parliament, is that the atmosphere of secrecy has been even more intense. Ahead of the reshuffle, ministers sought out journalists for news. But as one said to me on Monday: "I know they are running a very tight ship and none of us has heard so much as a whisper. But I bet Ed Balls and Douglas Alexander have a pretty good idea of what is going on."

The leadership "election" has demonstrated that Brown has the ability to reinvent himself. "Reformation" would perhaps be a better word than "revolution" considering Brown's political roots and Protestant background, but he needs to demonstrate quickly that the era of conspiratorial sofa politics is over. For that, the real transformation will have to come from inside Brown's head.

This article first appeared in the 02 July 2007 issue of the New Statesman, The Brown revolution begins

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Is Yvette Cooper surging?

The bookmakers and Westminster are in a flurry. Is Yvette Cooper going to win after all? I'm not convinced. 

Is Yvette Cooper surging? The bookmakers have cut her odds, making her the second favourite after Jeremy Corbyn, and Westminster – and Labour more generally – is abuzz with chatter that it will be her, not Corbyn, who becomes leader on September 12. Are they right? A couple of thoughts:

I wouldn’t trust the bookmakers’ odds as far as I could throw them

When Jeremy Corbyn first entered the race his odds were at 100 to 1. When he secured the endorsement of Unite, Britain’s trade union, his odds were tied with Liz Kendall, who nobody – not even her closest allies – now believes will win the Labour leadership. When I first tipped the Islington North MP for the top job, his odds were still at 3 to 1.

Remember bookmakers aren’t trying to predict the future, they’re trying to turn a profit. (As are experienced betters – when Cooper’s odds were long, it was good sense to chuck some money on there, just to secure a win-win scenario. I wouldn’t be surprised if Burnham’s odds improve a bit as some people hedge for a surprise win for the shadow health secretary, too.)

I still don’t think that there is a plausible path to victory for Yvette Cooper

There is a lively debate playing out – much of it in on The Staggers – about which one of Cooper or Burnham is best-placed to stop Corbyn. Team Cooper say that their data shows that their candidate is the one to stop Corbyn. Team Burnham, unsurprisingly, say the reverse. But Team Kendall, the mayoral campaigns, and the Corbyn team also believe that it is Burnham, not Cooper, who can stop Corbyn.

They think that the shadow health secretary is a “bad bank”: full of second preferences for Corbyn. One senior Blairite, who loathes Burnham with a passion, told me that “only Andy can stop Corbyn, it’s as simple as that”.

I haven’t seen a complete breakdown of every CLP nomination – but I have seen around 40, and they support that argument. Luke Akehurst, a cheerleader for Cooper, published figures that support the “bad bank” theory as well.   Both YouGov polls show a larger pool of Corbyn second preferences among Burnham’s votes than Cooper’s.

But it doesn’t matter, because Andy Burnham can’t make the final round anyway

The “bad bank” row, while souring relations between Burnhamettes and Cooperinos even further, is interesting but academic.  Either Jeremy Corbyn will win outright or he will face Cooper in the final round. If Liz Kendall is eliminated, her second preferences will go to Cooper by an overwhelming margin.

Yes, large numbers of Kendall-supporting MPs are throwing their weight behind Burnham. But Kendall’s supporters are overwhelmingly giving their second preferences to Cooper regardless. My estimate, from both looking at CLP nominations and speaking to party members, is that around 80 to 90 per cent of Kendall’s second preferences will go to Cooper. Burnham’s gaffes – his “when it’s time” remark about Labour having a woman leader, that he appears to have a clapometer instead of a moral compass – have discredited him in him the eyes of many. While Burnham has shrunk, Cooper has grown. And for others, who can’t distinguish between Burnham and Cooper, they’d prefer to have “a crap woman rather than another crap man” in the words of one.

This holds even for Kendall backers who believe that Burnham is a bad bank. A repeated refrain from her supporters is that they simply couldn’t bring themselves to give Burnham their 2nd preference over Cooper. One senior insider, who has been telling his friends that they have to opt for Burnham over Cooper, told me that “faced with my own paper, I can’t vote for that man”.

Interventions from past leaders fall on deaf ears

A lot has happened to change the Labour party in recent years, but one often neglected aspect is this: the Labour right has lost two elections on the bounce. Yes, Ed Miliband may have rejected most of New Labour’s legacy and approach, but he was still a protégé of Gordon Brown and included figures like Rachel Reeves, Ed Balls and Jim Murphy in his shadow cabinet.  Yvette Cooper and Andy Burnham were senior figures during both defeats. And the same MPs who are now warning that Corbyn will doom the Labour Party to defeat were, just months ago, saying that Miliband was destined for Downing Street and only five years ago were saying that Gordon Brown was going to stay there.

Labour members don’t trust the press

A sizeable number of Labour party activists believe that the media is against them and will always have it in for them. They are not listening to articles about Jeremy Corbyn’s past associations or reading analyses of why Labour lost. Those big, gamechanging moments in the last month? Didn’t change anything.

100,000 people didn’t join the Labour party on deadline day to vote against Jeremy Corbyn

On the last day of registration, so many people tried to register to vote in the Labour leadership election that they broke the website. They weren’t doing so on the off-chance that the day after, Yvette Cooper would deliver the speech of her life. Yes, some of those sign-ups were duplicates, and 3,000 of them have been “purged”.  That still leaves an overwhelmingly large number of sign-ups who are going to go for Corbyn.

It doesn’t look as if anyone is turning off Corbyn

Yes, Sky News’ self-selecting poll is not representative of anything other than enthusiasm. But, equally, if Yvette Cooper is really going to beat Jeremy Corbyn, surely, surely, she wouldn’t be in third place behind Liz Kendall according to Sky’s post-debate poll. Surely she wouldn’t have been the winner according to just 6.1 per cent of viewers against Corbyn’s 80.7 per cent. 

Stephen Bush is editor of the Staggers, the New Statesman’s political blog.