With hospital admissions increasing, why aren't medical staff numbers going up?

A case of "too many cooks spoil the broth".

Recent news regarding a 37 per cent increase in emergency hospital admissions comes as no surprise. There has been significant advancement in diagnostics and management intervention over the past decade and beyond and hence people are simply living longer. Many individuals suffer from chronic conditions where relapses occur and do so frequently. A patient with ischaemic heart disease may present regularly with chest pain, a patient with chronic bronchitis may present with a chest infection and someone with diabetes may be admitted with excessively high blood sugars. Therefore patients are admitted to hospital to achieve optimisation of their clinical state and appropriate care to see them through the acute phase.

Having worked in the NHS for five years I am for one proud of the care we deliver – this may be a biased opinion but it is an institution we should be proud of and continue to support whole heartedly. One of its detriments however is the simple lack of its workforce. Hospital specialty teams are typically led by a consultant, a specialist registrar, and if lucky a couple of senior house officers and house officers. Of course not all members of each team are present at any one time in view of on call commitments, leave post shift work and additional training commitments which fall under the continuing medical education (CME) umbrella. Therefore it can prove quite a challenge to serve the ever increasing patient admission rate with a not so concrete workforce.

In 2010, the government introduced the NHS 111 service with its aim to eventually replace the current NHS Direct service by 2013. Individuals are advised to call 111 if:

  • You need medical help fast but it's not a 999 emergency.
  • You think you need to go to A&E or need another NHS urgent care service.
  • You don't know who to call or you don't have a GP to call.
  • You need health information or reassurance about what to do next.

(Available from www.nhs.uk)

According to the website’s section entitled "How does it work?", the service is manned by "fully trained advisers supported by experienced nurses who will ask you questions to assess your symptoms, then give you the healthcare advice you need or direct you straightaway to the local service that can help you best."

Now I may be wrong, but if I was unwell no matter how severe I would personally choose to see a doctor in person and not talk to some random on the phone. Similarly if I chipped my tooth I would surely see a dentist and if I strained my hamstring playing football I would surely benefit by seeing a physiotherapist.

In the north west of London there are now plans to close four A & E units. The medical director for NHS North West London, Dr Mark Spencer, said: "hospitals here face considerable clinical and financial challenges." Now bearing in mind the rise in acute hospital admissions surely it doesn’t seem feasible to proceed with such plans?

Research by the Dr Foster group has shown an increase in patient mortality if admitted as an emergency over the weekend as well as higher mortality rates in hospitals with the fewest senior doctors available at the weekend. In response to these findings, the Royal College of Physicians is now working on plans to ensure consultant cover is present around the clock. We have of course all read about the apparent horrors of "Black Wednesday", the first Wednesday in August, where freshly faced junior doctors start working and have been deemed responsible for an apparent 6 per cent rise in emergency admission mortality. It begs the question therefore that if these juniors are responsible for such a killing spree why are seniors not actively training them from the moment they set foot in medical school to ensure they are fully capable and confident in dealing with acute medical and surgical problems instead of brushing them under the carpet and making them someone else’s problem.

So what is the solution? Well of course there is no easy answer but with simple deduction, if the number of patients being admitted are increasing, increase the number of doctors suitably trained to deal with the problem first hand, and of course with that follows the number of multidisciplinary staff, such as nurses, physiotherapists and occupational therapists.

I guess what we have here is a case of "too many cooks spoil the broth" or as an alternative "there are too many chiefs and not enough Indians".

Whichever you prefer.

Neel Sharma is a Medical Doctor and Honorary Clinical Lecturer at the Centre for Medical Education, Barts and the London School of Medicine and Dentistry

The A & E department at the Queen Elizabeth in Birmingham. Photograph: Getty Images
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Will Euroscepticism prove an unbeatable advantage in the Conservative leadership race?

Conservative members who are eager for Brexit are still searching for a heavyweight champion - and they could yet inherit the earth.

Put your money on Liam Fox? The former Defence Secretary has been given a boost by the news that ConservativeHome’s rolling survey of party members preferences for the next Conservative leader. Jeremy Wilson at BusinessInsider and James Millar at the Sunday Post have both tipped Fox for the top job.

Are they right? The expectation among Conservative MPs is that there will be several candidates from the Tory right: Dominic Raab, Priti Patel and potentially Owen Paterson could all be candidates, while Boris Johnson, in the words of one: “rides both horses – is he the candidate of the left, of the right, or both?”

MPs will whittle down the field of candidates to a top two, who will then be voted on by the membership.  (As Graham Brady, chair of the 1922 Committee, notes in his interview with my colleague George Eaton, Conservative MPs could choose to offer a wider field if they so desired, but would be unlikely to surrender more power to party activists.)

The extreme likelihood is that that contest will be between two candidates: George Osborne and not-George Osborne.  “We know that the Chancellor has a bye to the final,” one minister observes, “But once you’re in the final – well, then it’s anyone’s game.”

Could “not-George Osborne” be Liam Fox? Well, the difficulty, as one MP observes, is we don’t really know what the Conservative leadership election is about:

“We don’t even know what the questions are to which the candidates will attempt to present themselves as the answer. Usually, that question would be: who can win us the election? But now that Labour have Corbyn, that question is taken care of.”

So what’s the question that MPs will be asking? We simply don’t know – and it may be that they come to a very different conclusion to their members, just as in 2001, when Ken Clarke won among MPs – before being defeated in a landslide by Conservative activists.

Much depends not only on the outcome of the European referendum, but also on its conduct. If the contest is particularly bruising, it may be that MPs are looking for a candidate who will “heal and settle”, in the words of one. That would disadvantage Fox, who will likely be a combative presence in the European referendum, and could benefit Boris Johnson, who, as one MP put it, “rides both horses” and will be less intimately linked with the referendum and its outcome than Osborne.

But equally, it could be that Euroscepticism proves to be a less powerful card than we currently expect. Ignoring the not inconsiderable organisational hurdles that have to be cleared to beat Theresa May, Boris Johnson, and potentially any or all of the “next generation” of Sajid Javid, Nicky Morgan or Stephen Crabb, we simply don’t know what the reaction of Conservative members to the In-Out referendum will be.

Firstly, there’s a non-trivial possibility that Leave could still win, despite its difficulties at centre-forward. The incentive to “reward” an Outer will be smaller. But if Britain votes to Remain – and if that vote is seen by Conservative members as the result of “dirty tricks” by the Conservative leadership – it could be that many members, far from sticking around for another three to four years to vote in the election, simply decide to leave. The last time that Cameron went against the dearest instincts of many of his party grassroots, the result was victory for the Prime Minister – and an activist base that, as the result of defections to Ukip and cancelled membership fees, is more socially liberal and more sympathetic to Cameron than it was before. Don’t forget that, for all the worry about “entryism” in the Labour leadership, it was “exitism” – of Labour members who supported David Miliband and liked the New Labour years  - that shifted that party towards Jeremy Corbyn.

It could be that if – as Brady predicts in this week’s New Statesman – the final two is an Inner and an Outer, the Eurosceptic candidate finds that the members who might have backed them are simply no longer around.

It comes back to the biggest known unknown in the race to succeed Cameron: Conservative members. For the first time in British political history, a Prime Minister will be chosen, not by MPs with an electoral mandate of their own or by voters at a general election but by an entirelyself-selecting group: party members. And we simply don't know enough about what they feel - yet. 

Stephen Bush is editor of the Staggers, the New Statesman’s political blog. He usually writes about politics.