The fall in nursing numbers is a complete disaster

Without swift work to rectify this problem, patient care will suffer.

Following recent reports regarding a significant rise in emergency hospital admissions and higher patient mortality rates over the weekend due to a lack of senior doctors, we are now faced with the abysmal fact of fewer training nurses. Research by Nursing Times (NT) earlier this month revealed that nurse training places have been cut by more than 2,500 in the past three years. Professor David Green, Vice Chancellor and Chief Executive of the University of Worcester commented: "We are heading straight for a national disaster in two to three years’ time." Worse still, Strategic Health Authority figures obtained by NT showed that there were over two thousand more nurses opting to work in a community based setting as opposed to acute care.   

During my time in the NHS I have worked in primary and secondary care with the latter including time spent in acute medical, high dependency and intensive care environments. And I have witnessed first-hand the considerable strain placed on the nursing profession. In an acute medical setting for example, a nurse would be typically responsible for at least four to six patients, sometimes even more. And in the acute setting, a patient’s clinical state can change at any moment. As doctors, following initial patient assessment, we put plans in place from a management perspective to ensure recovery. But due to large patient numbers and demands from outpatient clinics it is difficult to be on the shop floor monitoring each patient around the clock - a sad fact but unfortunately true.

In a high dependency or intensive care setting, the situation however is very different. Doctors are always present and patients benefit from one to one nursing allowing for effective patient assessment. You may argue that these types of patients obviously need a more advanced and rigid monitoring regime and you are probably right. But ward patients also rely heavily on nurses to be their eyes and ears, alerting doctors to any concern they or of course the nurse may have.

An afternoon ward based scenario to help illustrate my point; a four patient bay being manned by one nurse.

Patient A has been admitted with chest pain which initially settled but has now recurred and is more severe in nature. The nurse must do a new set of observations, namely blood pressure, heart rate and oxygen saturations, as well as an electrocardiogram (ECG), give pain relief which has been previously prescribed and alert the doctor responsible for that patient about the change in clinical state.

Patient B, a chronic alcoholic admitted following an alcohol binge, starts to vomit large amounts of blood. He feels faint, his blood pressure is falling and he is at risk of cardio respiratory arrest. The nurse, in addition to recording new observations, will need to insert a cannula and start intravenous fluids if the doctor responsible for this patient is busy and unable to reach the patient straight away.

Patient C has been admitted with renal failure due to not eating and drinking. He has a history of severe depression and is refusing to take his medication. He has been referred to the on call psychiatrist but while waiting for a review is threatening to kill himself and other patients on the ward.

And Patient D, who has been admitted following a fall at home but is now suitable for discharge. He is becoming frustrated by the time it has taken to receive his discharge paperwork and medications. It has been two hours now and he wants to make an urgent complaint about the care he has received, or lack of, to the Patient Advice and Liaison Service (PALS).

You may find it hard to believe but the above ward scenario is certainly not far from the truth.

Not only are nurses expected to respond to changing patient conditions they are also responsible for patients’ personal needs, administering appropriate medication, referring patients to other multidisciplinary staff such as a physiotherapist or occupational therapist and for facilitating discharge to name but a few.

With falling nursing numbers, the government should take heed and put concrete plans in place to ensure this situation is rectified and done so quickly. The workforce is already stretched and I for one fail to see how patient care will not be grossly affected.

Neel Sharma is a Medical Doctor and Honorary Clinical Lecturer at the Centre for Medical Education, Barts and the London School of Medicine and Dentistry

Great Ormond Street Hospital nurses perform during the Olympic opening ceremony. Photograph: Getty Images
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Is defeat in Stoke the beginning of the end for Paul Nuttall?

The Ukip leader was his party's unity candidate. But after his defeat in Stoke, the old divisions are beginning to show again

In a speech to Ukip’s spring conference in Bolton on February 17, the party’s once and probably future leader Nigel Farage laid down the gauntlet for his successor, Paul Nuttall. Stoke’s by-election was “fundamental” to the future of the party – and Nuttall had to win.
 
One week on, Nuttall has failed that test miserably and thrown the fundamental questions hanging over Ukip’s future into harsh relief. 

For all his bullish talk of supplanting Labour in its industrial heartlands, the Ukip leader only managed to increase the party’s vote share by 2.2 percentage points on 2015. This paltry increase came despite Stoke’s 70 per cent Brexit majority, and a media narrative that was, until the revelations around Nuttall and Hillsborough, talking the party’s chances up.
 
So what now for Nuttall? There is, for the time being, little chance of him resigning – and, in truth, few inside Ukip expected him to win. Nuttall was relying on two well-rehearsed lines as get-out-of-jail free cards very early on in the campaign. 

The first was that the seat was a lowly 72 on Ukip’s target list. The second was that he had been leader of party whose image had been tarnished by infighting both figurative and literal for all of 12 weeks – the real work of his project had yet to begin. 

The chances of that project ever succeeding were modest at the very best. After yesterday’s defeat, it looks even more unlikely. Nuttall had originally stated his intention to run in the likely by-election in Leigh, Greater Manchester, when Andy Burnham wins the Greater Manchester metro mayoralty as is expected in May (Wigan, the borough of which Leigh is part, voted 64 per cent for Brexit).

If he goes ahead and stands – which he may well do – he will have to overturn a Labour majority of over 14,000. That, even before the unedifying row over the veracity of his Hillsborough recollections, was always going to be a big challenge. If he goes for it and loses, his leadership – predicated as it is on his supposed ability to win votes in the north - will be dead in the water. 

Nuttall is not entirely to blame, but he is a big part of Ukip’s problem. I visited Stoke the day before The Guardian published its initial report on Nuttall’s Hillsborough claims, and even then Nuttall’s campaign manager admitted that he was unlikely to convince the “hard core” of Conservative voters to back him. 

There are manifold reasons for this, but chief among them is that Nuttall, despite his newfound love of tweed, is no Nigel Farage. Not only does he lack his name recognition and box office appeal, but the sad truth is that the Tory voters Ukip need to attract are much less likely to vote for a party led by a Scouser whose platform consists of reassuring working-class voters their NHS and benefits are safe.
 
It is Farage and his allies – most notably the party’s main donor Arron Banks – who hold the most power over Nuttall’s future. Banks, who Nuttall publicly disowned as a non-member after he said he was “sick to death” of people “milking” the Hillsborough disaster, said on the eve of the Stoke poll that Ukip had to “remain radical” if it wanted to keep receiving his money. Farage himself has said the party’s campaign ought to have been “clearer” on immigration. 

Senior party figures are already briefing against Nuttall and his team in the Telegraph, whose proprietors are chummy with the beer-swilling Farage-Banks axis. They deride him for his efforts to turn Ukip into “NiceKip” or “Nukip” in order to appeal to more women voters, and for the heavy-handedness of his pitch to Labour voters (“There were times when I wondered whether I’ve got a purple rosette or a red one on”, one told the paper). 

It is Nuttall’s policy advisers - the anti-Farage awkward squad of Suzanne Evans, MEP Patrick O’Flynn (who famously branded Farage "snarling, thin-skinned and aggressive") and former leadership candidate Lisa Duffy – come in for the harshest criticism. Herein lies the leader's almost impossible task. Despite having pitched to members as a unity candidate, the two sides’ visions for Ukip are irreconcilable – one urges him to emulate Trump (who Nuttall says he would not have voted for), and the other urges a more moderate tack. 

Endorsing his leader on Question Time last night, Ukip’s sole MP Douglas Carswell blamed the legacy of the party’s Tea Party-inspired 2015 general election campaign, which saw Farage complain about foreigners with HIV using the NHS in ITV’s leaders debate, for the party’s poor performance in Stoke. Others, such as MEP Bill Etheridge, say precisely the opposite – that Nuttall must be more like Farage. 

Neither side has yet called for Nuttall’s head. He insists he is “not going anywhere”. With his febrile party no stranger to abortive coup and counter-coup, he is unlikely to be the one who has the final say.