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The election's giving me a headache

French journalist Frederic Niel explains why the poll makes you want to reach for the aspirin

Here goes the typical conversation in the France nowadays:

So come on now, who are you going to vote for?

I’m still hesitating. Generally, I vote Green in the first round and Socialist in the second round of each presidential election. But when Le Pen got to the second round in 2002 – to everyone’s surprise, since he was behind both Chirac and Jospin in the polls – I was sorry I didn’t vote Jospin from the first round onwards.

Many left-wing voters like me thought that enough voters would go for Jospin straight away, to let the socialist candidate get in just behind Chirac, and then that we could come together and beat Chirac in the second round. The result was that I had to hold my nose and vote for Chirac in the second round, to crush Le Pen. So, this year, I’d decided to vote pragmatically - “voter utile”. That is to say, I’d vote Segolene Royal from the beginning, so that she will get in behind Sarkozy and stop Le Pen from getting through to the second round. And so much for my sweetheart, the Greens’ Dominique Voynet.

So, you’ll vote for Royal?

It’s not that simple. When Francois Bayrou began to climb up in the polls, I told myself that voting for Royal might actually do nothing, and that splitting the votes of the centre-left public like me between Royal and Bayrou would simply play into Le Pen’s hands.

So, you’ll vote for Bayrou?

Not sure: I’m waiting for the final moment, I’m going to look at the last polls, and I’ll vote for Bayrou if he’s ahead of Royal, and for Royal if she’s ahead of Bayou. The important thing is that Le Pen doesn’t get to the second round. It would be too shameful.

So that’s the plan…

I don’t know. According to the polls covering second-round scenarios, only Bayrou could beat Sarkozy. Royal has basically almost no chance of winning the presidential elections. So why push her into the second round? But if I vote for Bayrou, since he’s behind Royal in the polls at the moment, I would simply have stopped Royal from having enough voices to take over Le Pen. And if he got into the second round again…

Well then, what are you going to do?

Well, since Le Pen is pretty low in the polls, and since there’s maybe little risk that he’ll get ahead of Royal and into the second round, I’m wondering if I won’t, after all, vote Voynet…

What?

Yes: Royal, ultimately, may not need my vote, so perhaps I can afford the luxury of voting of voting for the Greens, for pleasure… having said that, if we all make the same calculation, neither Royal nor Bayrou will have enough votes to get past the first round, and we’ll have Le Pen versus Sarkozy. A surprise is always possible, like in 2002… I’ll decide in the voting booth. And you, who are you voting for?

Me? I’ve got too much of a headache this year. I’ll vote next time.

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4 comments from readers

Anne Corbett
22 April 2007 at 12:52

An election to marvel at and enjoy, says Shirley Curran, a game of chess for other bloggers. I wish, as a British Francophile, that I could join in. Were I French, like part of my family, on the evidence of this campaign I would stop playing games and vote for the candidate I wanted to win. The two-round electoral system designed, so it is said, to enable the French to vote with their hearts in the first round, their heads in the second, has surely had its day in a society which is nothing like as ideologically split as it was in the 1970s when the system was put in place. With 12 candidates in the first round – and massive voter indecision - the unpredictable is a certainty. Since the outcome of the election matters for France, this for me is a cause for apprehension not marvelling!

Anne Corbett was a Paris-based journalist in the 1980s and 1990s.

Photo on a.corbett@lse.ac.uk

lumbkoz
22 April 2007 at 12:52

I just voted outside the French Lycée in glorious London South Ken this morning. The sun helped bring out hordes of French citizens and their children to enjoy their democratic right whilst queuing - which they don't usually like, even as London residents - and taste, even so slightly, the sheer confusion of which queue to follow. Once ascertaining, for the female citizen only, that one should follow the first letter of their 'nom de jeune fille’, the queues were relatively fast and efficient. As you pass the display of posters showing portraits of the candidates, one ponders a little about what Frédéric Niel is talking about. The what if.. certainly passed my mind ranging from what my heart would tell me to do to the other extreme, and resurrect that old sense of French rebellion which gave us the name of 'frondeurs'. Interestingly enough there were two posters missing and one of them was that of Marie-George Buffet, the Communist Party candidate. Most of her programme is what I would like to happen in France as well as in the UK. But my sense of proportion and experience of the last elections made me stick to the straight and narrow and vote for Ségolène Royal as the only chance we may have to at least enable some of her social programme to reach government proposals. I totally understand Frédéric’s argument to the contrary but even the radicalism of Dominique Voynet’s green candidacy (also a sweetheart of mine) could not sway me to undermine the possibility of helping France to dive more deeply into another right wing programme which will be disastrous for not just France but the rest of Europe. The second round, however, will be a totally different affair. Watch that space!

swatantra nandanwar
22 April 2007 at 20:04

Forget about tactical voting and vote with your conscience. Vote Royal. Forget about Bayrou,

he's without any substance, playing to the gallery, rather like our Lib Dems, and he hasn't got an earthly.

And forget about Penn; he'll only pick up 17% of the French racist vote, not enough to make a difference.

So it'll be Royal and Sarkzy into the second round.

And we all hope Royal wins the Presidency.

swatantra nandanwar
22 April 2007 at 20:11

I've just switched on the radio and heard the result. What did I tell ! Vote with your conscience, every time.

Sarko 30, Sego 25, Bayrou 18 and that facist 11.

And the French are to congratulated on a massive turnout. Well done the French, puts us to shame. Now lets concentrate on getting Sego into the Elysee!

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