Acting like an opposition while in government can only take you so far
In a more hostile media climate, the coalition's shifts would be portrayed as crass opportunism and
By Gavin Kelly Published 18 January 2012 18:14
Tomorrow David Cameron will complete the beauty parade of party leaders offering their take on crony capitalism, following on from Ed Miliband's conference speech, which he amplified last week, and Nick Clegg's call for a "John Lewis economy". Expect Cameron to balance a fierce rhetorical attack on boardroom excess ("fill your boots capitalism") with plenty of warm words about the virtues of proper markets and a nod towards the sunny possibilities of "popular capitalism" -- a theme that all Tory leaders since Eden and Macmillan have returned to, along with a good few of their Labour counterparts.
The speech comes in advance of Vince Cable's forthcoming proposals on reigning in executive pay, timed to pre-empt the City bonus season, and it tops off a concerted three week campaign by the coalition to wrestle the theme of "responsible capitalism" out of Labour's hands. Turn the clock back four months, to when Miliband was being derided for his conference speech, and it is clear that this is not a theme that Conservative strategists will have been planning to major on. It has rudely intruded upon their preferred narratives of deficit reduction, broken Britain, and the Big Society.
Leave to one side for a moment your views on the policies (or lack of) to deal with so-called crony capitalism and consider what this episode tells us about the governing habits -- statecraft would be too grand a term -- of the coalition, in particular the Conservatives. A blitz of pamphlets, articles, speeches and briefings have made clear their determination to close down the rhetorical political space that Labour was seeking to occupy. As an orchestrated act of attempted political land-grabbing it has certainly been of the predatory variety. There is, of course, scope for plenty of cynicism about what this will achieve and whether the rhetorical arms-race that has gathered pace will actually lead to any real change. But it has left us in no doubt of the Conservatives' resolve not to be outflanked.
Which brings us to another revealing episode, seemingly unrelated, from last week: the Conservatives' misadventures on the reform of child benefit. At their party conference in 2010, George Osborne, in an attempt to secure his then message of"'we're all in this together", announced that any household with a higher-rate tax payer would see all of their child benefit payments axed. The result? A family with three kids relying on a single earner on £45k would lose around £2.5k; whereas a household on £80k (based on two earners each on £40k) wouldn't lose a penny.
Last week, some 15 months after this announcement and with the implementation date of next January starting to loom large, David Cameron opined that "some people" say that there is a "cliff edge issue". It's a bit unclear who he thinks the "other people" are. Indeed, their proposal creates a cliff-edge so high and steep that safety warnings should be put up for miles around. Nor is it the case that this was a technical problem that has been unearthed after months of forensic analysis by fine minds. Any official advice in DWP and HMT would have made ministers completely aware of all of the problems with the proposal -- the shortcomings are so obvious that any minster with a passing knowledge of the tax and benefit system wouldn't have needed these warnings. The lack of attention to detail, and willingness to sacrifice longer term policy coherence at the altar of short-term political positioning, is revealing.
Do these two recent episodes make a larger point? My sense is they do. Cameron and Osborne, when worried about an issue, still think and act like an opposition. They are swift, intensely political, and relentlessly focussed on their opponents. Whatever their underlying ideological convictions, they travel fairly lightly -- as oppositions tend to -- and, on issues other than their lodestar of deficit reduction, are willing to shift ground quickly to avoid being beached on the wrong side of public opinion. Crucially, however, they are susceptible to mistakes. Notably mistakes of the sort that you can get away with in opposition -- those that bite at some point in the future, at the point of actually having to deliver a policy.
Practicing this approach to politics when in power is both a strength and a weakness. The former because they can move quickly and in a united fashion to exploit a political opportunity or close down a threat, something that many parties quickly lose the capacity to do when in office. The latter because this style of governing, particularly when combined with a loose grip on policy detail, results in flaky decisions and vaulting U-turns (never mind creating turmoil for voters).
What does this mean for their political prospects? For now, not much. Given the intense media focus on Labour, and the generally benign mood towards the coalition, these episodes are smiled upon as evidence of agility and responsiveness. Yet in a more hostile media climate they would be portrayed as crass acts of opportunism and incompetence. And the question as to what the coalition, and the Conservatives in particular, are actually "for" other than deficit reduction would be asked far more pointedly.
Twenty months into office, it is time for the Conservatives to find a better balance between their opposition-like tendencies and the realities of governing. They need to achieve this before, as will happen sooner or later, the media environment turns.
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13 comments
The government is acting like they were not in power, especially the (ruling) Democratic Party - they are talking about the future, and have no results to back them up.
@ben
The media reflects the popular view to sell news. There is such strong feeling against Labour's borrow and spend projects that reversing them gets public support. As we see in the opinion polls and the Labour U turn.
The problem is that Labour spent such a vast sum of money (it borrowed £350Bn before 2008 and the banking crisis) that the good things it did are despised.
Just another example of Miliband leading and Cameron playing catch up.
Miliband was criticised for his conference speech, accused of being anti-business.
Miliband actually attacked the " Business as Usual " culture and poor Cameron is now playing catch up.
Inastew, when will exports pick up to Non EU countries?
Paul it is called freedom of speach. I know you champagne socialists want us to live a North Korean style totalitarianism where everyone is equal apart from the dear leader but im afraid we are in a free country. Sorry to be the bringer of bad news on that front.
Sorry Indu but are you seriously trying to tell me our news media isn't managed to represent the interests of the wealthy and powerful?
The media does engage in populism but it doesn't just reflect and any reasonable person would agree with this .
Labour did the same thing in it's first 2 an A half years in power, Not neccesarily A bad thing, but a waste of potential time when htey could have been governing
The cliff-edge issue was raised at the time Osborne made his announcement - Mumsnet was shrieking about it and Danny Alexande was questioned about it on Newsnight and vehemently asserted that it wasn't the case and the necessary measures were already in place to mean it waszn't. Now, over a year and half later, the government informs us nothing no measures do exist and has done nothing about it in the meantime. What a bunch of incompetents.
So long as Red 'stupid boy' Ed leads Liebore - the Tories will have to play the role of official opposition !
Paul
'Seriously, get rid of them, and within a fairly short preiod of time this will become a site were intelligent vaguelly left, broadly liberal people will be happy to debate amongst themselves at great length. There's a huge gap in the market.'
We can see clearly where you stand on free speech if argument is too intellectually demanding for you
@matt
When will you tell us whether you agree with your friend Bob Crow?
Our media are so despicable though. Any decent media would have torn the coalition to shreds over their assault on the disabled. If only people could think for themselves and see through this government.
@gavin
Please could you clarify are your refering to Milibandwagaon and his boss Balls up when you say:
"when combined with a loose grip on policy detail, results in flaky decisions and vaulting U-turns (never mind creating turmoil for voters)"
BTW the child allowance is a tory disaster.