Learning the right lessons from Labour's economic record
Neither Labour nor the Coalition is willing to ask why Britain's tax base was so fragile.
By Gavin Kelly Published 15 November 2011 11:55
You might think the one thing the world doesn't need right now is yet another instant history about the Labour years. But here one comes -- this time, though, with a difference. The authors certainly won't be dining out on the royalties and there's no insider gossip or "he said, she said" revelations about rows in Downing St. Which is perhaps one reason why it's worth reading; it says something serious about what did and didn't happen to economic performance during the Labour years.
It is authored by John Van Reenen from the LSE -- one of Britain's leading economists, and something of a guru on productivity and growth; together with Dan Corry, a seasoned and respected economic advisor from the former Labour government, and someone not averse to being contrary and defying the conventional view of the day.
Their central argument is that the 2.8 per cent a year productivity growth achieved between 1997 and the start of the 2008 recession was impressive in both historical and international terms; rooted in substantive improvements in a number of sectors, rather than relying on the frothy gains from financial services; and arose in part due to policy choices -- particularly investment in research and science, strong competition policy, expansion of higher education and gains in skills. Their argument is as unfashionable as it is empirically substantiated.
Above all it is an attempt to rebalance the current economic debate about the Labour years, a first (and no doubt doomed) effort at taking on those who assert that there was little more to the Labour era than an attempt to surf the wave of public and private debt over which it presided. This puts the authors at odds with the swelling ranks on left and right who wish to portray Labour's economic strategy as little more than a Faustian pact with the City: light regulation in return for growing tax-revenues. The report, of course, concedes financial regulation was a failure, but contends that wider economic policy made a real and positive difference to a range of sectors -- a point that is currently in danger of being completely over-looked.
Nor do the authors just make an argument about the past -- they also seek to pick a fight about the future. Entering the fray of the current economic debate, they refute the "supply-side pessimists" who assert there is no scope for any further stimulus on the basis that the productive potential of the economy has already fallen (which if true would mean that further expansionary policy would be counter-productive). In contrast, the LSE report contends there is plenty of spare capacity, it just requires some form of Plan B to ensure it is utilised. In truth, however, the authors are most interested in advocating a Plan V, as they term it, for long term growth involving a more muscular and far-sighted industrial policy.
For all the cogency of their arguments on productivity -- and let's hope someone in Whitehall is taking note about the insights offered about the real sources of growth -- there are some puzzling omissions and assertions. Little is said about the UK's ongoing trade imbalances. There is no investigation of the weakening link between GDP growth and the gains going to low-to-middle income Britain, and the associated wage stagnation that took hold in the years preceding the recession -- a phenomena that Labour in office failed to grasp. When you reach the end of the report you don't have much of a sense of the policy agenda that would lift the prospects of the millions of low and modestly paid workers employed in Britain's vast low-skill, low-productivity sectors. The authors, like so many others, focus their attention on what can be done to improve the industrial vanguard, rather than the laggards.
And when it comes to the record on public finances, they choose to pin-point blame on Labour's record on overall public debt, saying it got too high pre-recession. This seems like an odd argument to select given that the UK's debt was relatively low compared to others. A better target would have been Labour's projections for tax receipts -- together with the wisdom of running modest deficits in the middle of the last decade, in a period of steady growth when modest surpluses would have been more prudent.
But even this criticism is dwarfed by the real argument which neither Labour nor the Coalition wants to make as it doesn't fit their favoured narratives -- which is to ask why Britain's tax base was so fragile, crumbling so dramatically, during the recent recession in a way that those in other countries didn't. Indeed, after several years of intense focus on the need to "stress test" banks to ensure their balance sheets could stand up to future financial shocks, it is remarkable that there is no equivalent debate about the sort of tax-base the modern British state needs if it is to better withstand global turbulence in the decades ahead (see this for an exception). Only when this issue is properly aired and addressed will we know that Labour, along with the Coalition, are intent on having a strategic discussion about Britain's long-term fiscal future.
Decades will pass before a full and fair account of Labour's economic record is formed. For now we need to recognise that, love them or loathe them, instant histories matter in politics: they frame today's media coverage and tomorrow's policy decisions. Here, unusually, is one that merits a wider readership than it will get.
Latest tweets
More from New Statesman
- Online writers:
- Steven Baxter
- Rowenna Davis
- David Allen Green
- Mehdi Hasan
- Nelson Jones
- Gavin Kelly
- Helen Lewis
- Laurie Penny
- The V Spot
- Alex Hern
- Martha Gill
- Alan White
- Samira Shackle
- Alex Andreou
- Nicky Woolf in America
- Bim Adewunmi
- Glosswitch
- Kate Mossman on pop
- Ryan Gilbey on Film
- Martin Robbins
- Rafael Behr
- Eleanor Margolis
- Tools and services:
- Polls
- Predictions
- Archive
- Magazine
- PDF edition
- RSS feeds
- Advertising
- Subscribe
- Special supplements
- Stockists





















12 comments
When we say the politicians can't be trusted to run the economy on a sound basis, we mean that there are reasons why even when we are growing at trend rate we will not run budget surpluses, the political system is open to abuse, voters want to enjoy the good times applying the brakes reduces the feel good factor and therefore the right decisions are not made, we get to a situation where our debts increase in the good times even though tax revenues will never sustain themselves when the good times end, gordon brown famously said he has ended boom and bust and used this to drop his own golden rules, this goes to show how easy the golden rules get thrown out the window for political expediency.
There is no problem with having targets, and we need an independent body to impose budget discipline so that when we are growing at trend we start saving for when the times will not be so good.
Robert Taggart
What a comedian you are, I laugh until I cry every time you write about "LIEBORE." Did one of your children teach you it?
The present administration have now been in power for one and a half years and have proved they don't know what they are doing. Maybe you can ask one of your children to make up a different joke for you?
Politicians can't be trusted to run the economy on a sound basis, when an economy grows at trend rate we should run budget surpluses, at first Gordon brown did create the golden rules but then shifted the goal posts after the second term, just when the boom in property and finance was bringing in buoyant tax revenues.
You raise a good point about our tax base, but there is a more serious problem in that we do not put money aside for future liabilities such as pensions, were countries in the east are accumulating wealth and running sovereign wealth funds in order to invest and get richer.
At the same time the future is shifting east, countries like china and India will move into higher value added technology and business services, the momentum is with them, when you develop clusters in the economy the knowledge develops and this creates related jobs and the fact that these economies are creating armies of engineers means that higher value projects, and technology will be developed in India and China.
In terms of our tax base we need to shift it away from productive resources and towards unproductive resources, tax labour and companies lower yet tax wealth, land and property higher, the public would buy into this if they see the trade off, also we will become more internationally competitive with lower company taxes, it was sad to see twitter goto Ireland that is the world we live in and we have gone down in the competitiveness league. In terms of govt spend we should focus more money fir infrastructure spend and reduce growth sapping admin jobs. One other thing we should tomorrow is waive fees for engineering courses and keep them for the arty farty courses, this will incentivise the brightest to goto in engineering.
Correction above should be shifted away from unproductive resources which is land and towards productive resources which is labour and capital.
The other thing is let's start simplifying our taxes, have few taxes around the same rate, like capital gains, income etc, flatter taxes do not mean lower taxes it just increases the efficiency of the economy at no cost, there will be winners and losers who want to keep all the tax breaks that politicians have promised for one good reason or another, the more complex the tax system the more fragile and costly it is, let us have a light weight tax system that is not admin heavy, abplush national insurance and stick it on Income tax, remove all the different tax credits and let everyone earn 25k tax free
@ 'Stued' Eels !
Glad to say one has never sired any sprogs.
@ 'Stued' Eels...
Have you sired any elver ?!
The growth in the economy(or not)is purely down to the private sector.Labour caused a temporary property boom,enjoyed the tax receipts,hired an extra 1 million govt employees,devalued the currency,and left us with 'BUST'.
The right lesson from Liebores economic record ?...
NEVER VOTE LIEBORE AGAIN !
his was an interesting article, about the fragile tax base. It was also interesting when it said the news of Labour's economic policy is not decided. A lot of people here assume it is!
After all, you said that "Politicians can't be trusted to run the economy on a sound basis" so presumably you'd be happy to see politicians and the democratic system done away with altogether. Far better to entrust the economy to the banks, investors and fund managers who have demonstrated how well they can command and administer the flow of cash, the lifeblood of nations. http://www.homeremodeling101.org/
Ah, yes, China, land of opportunity. Er, which just happens to be an iron-fisted dicatorship - did you forget that, Eddy? Does it matter? After all, you said that "Politicians can't be trusted to run the economy on a sound basis" so presumably you'd be happy to see politicians and the democratic system done away with altogether. Far better to entrust the economy to the banks, investors and fund managers who have demonstrated how well they can command and administer the flow of cash, the lifeblood of nations...
Oh wait! - except that they didn't! They actually showed us what a gang of sociopathic greedmongers they all are, ready, willing and able to risk vast sums on the throw of a figurative dice. Mad gamblers and psychotic profiteers.
I think not. Regulate them all, severely curtail commodity futures trading, outlaw the worst of the derivatives, and beef up the FSA, in both legal teeth and manpower. When you're overrun by locusts, its time to get serious with the pest control.
In real terms, the private sector didn't grow at all under Labour. Not at all, in a decade.