Gavin Kelly

Economics, politics and the reality of the 'squeezed middle'

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When rates finally rise, things are set to get nasty

Nothing turns a dry economic story into a turbo-charged political one quite like fear of losing the

A good recession followed by a bad recovery. Trite lines like this are often wide of the mark, but this one bears some truth. The fallout of the economic downturn over the last few years -- though harsh -- was less gruesome than first feared in terms of overall unemployment, bankruptcies and repossessions. The risk is that far more misery than might have been expected lies ahead.

Everyone knows that sooner or later (and it will probably be later) interest rates will have to go up, and when they do it's going to hurt a lot of people who are already sore from the effort of keeping up with a rising cost of living. After stagnant wages, reduced working hours, cuts to tax-credits, higher inflation and escalating energy prices, the next chapter of Britain's living standards squeeze is set to be climbing interest rates.

The immediate threat of a rate rise has receded due to pitiful growth figures over the last two quarters, which leading forecasters say are set to continue (in case you were distracted by other news, the NIESR have predicted growth of 0.1 per cent in the second quarter of 2011), and, thankfully, a slight dip in inflation. But make no mistake -- unless the economy goes into freefall, in 2012 we can expect to see steadily climbing interest rates.

We don't have a clear sense yet of what the impact will be. One reason for this, rather surprisingly, is that we don't really know exactly how many people are already struggling in some way with their mortgage. There are, of course, statistics about levels of home repossessions -- and they have remained very low. In part, this is because this recession, far more than previous ones, has been characterised by people avoiding the horror of losing their home by striking some sort of agreement (known as "forbearance") with their bank, which allows them to reschedule their repayments, often by shifting from a "repayment" to an "interest only" mortgage for a period. Forbearance has been helpful to many people. But it buys time; it doesn't solving the underlying problem.

What is becoming clear is that the number of households covered by forbearance is very large -- and this is now starting to spook our economic authorities. The FSA highlighted this earlier in the spring, and the Bank of England has just chosen to do so in its recent Financial Stability Report.

The first line of support to households who get pushed over the edge is often those who provide debt advice. So it is telling that the Consumer Credit Counselling Service, a charity that helps those in financial distress, has issued a stark new report on financial fragility in Britain. It estimates that over 750,000 mortgages are in some form of forbearance, and when this is added to the number of mortgages in arrears, the authors get a grand total of 1.2 million mortgages under pressure -- that's more than one in ten of all outstanding mortgages. If correct, this is scary. It points to a potentially far bigger problem for households in the years ahead then you would think simply by looking at the Council of Mortgage Lenders projections for repossessions.

This warning shot from CCCS also helps to focus attention on a little appreciated but wider problem: the rising burden of debt repayment for low-to-middle income families, which has grown over recent years, reaching the levels of the early 1990s when interest rates were dramatically higher (see the chart). How can that be right, you might ask, given interest rates have been on the floor for some time?

gavin kelly graph

Source: Source: Growth without gain?, Resolution Foundation, May 2011

Part of the answer is the larger mortgages that people took out over the last decade due to rising house prices, and the easy availability of 100 per cent mortgages (for instance almost one in three first time buyers on a low-to-middle income in the years running up to the financial crisis used one). It also reflects the fact that lower interest rates often didn't get passed on to borrowers - particularly lower income ones. And let's not forget that household incomes have actually been falling recently, making it harder to service debts. So perhaps we shouldn't be too shocked by alarming Shelter research which finds that over two million people used credit cards to pay their mortgage or rent in 2010 -- an increase of almost 50 per cent in a year.

Given this backdrop, if the cost of debt repayment shoots up alongside higher interest rates, at the same time as living standards continue to be squeezed -- as is expected throughout 2012, with inflation continuing to outpace wages, and government cuts to tax-credits and benefits ratcheting up -- then we can expect the consequences to be dire. Debt advice charities are already starting to think about the need to scale up their operation to meet higher demand. Indeed, it is the severity of the this risk to household budgets (and to the banks that have lent to them) that will be one of the key factors restraining the Bank of England, who will otherwise be itching to return interest rates to a more normal level as soon as is feasible.

At the moment, all this is under the radar. Issues like forbearance struggle to make it onto the money pages of the papers. That's sure to change. Nothing turns a dry economic story into a turbo-charged political one quite like fear of losing the family home. This could get nasty.

Gavin Kelly is chief executive of the Resolution Foundation.

28 comments

Wenddy's picture

When financial crisis occurs, people often become wary of certain kinds of investing, and in some cases, people simply decide not to invest at all. For those who still want to invest, it can be difficult to determine what to invest in.

historybuff's picture

House prices in UK are propped up by overcrowding, overpopulation, students, immigrants, and the legal requirement that everyone be housed. These factors keep prices high even in cities with serious problems of unemployment and other social ills.

Charles Jannuzi's picture

The US will effect a 'default' by steady erosion of the dollar. When rates rise, what will we get? A stockmarket meltdown? We already got that and rates were low and went lower.

For societies that have a lot of retirees, rates on savings would actually encourage them to consume more. Certainly might help Japan, which has gone nowhere after 20 years of low rates.

Mr. Divine's picture

andyg: I know a bloke who goes around to sheep stations and charges farmers to clean the sheep shit from under their shearing sheds and then sells it as manure. He makes about 20,00 quid a year. It is his part-time job . He has a full-time job and no mortgage.

What are you doing in that poxy office earning peanuts, indoors under lights, going on little Med cruises and moaning about capitalism?

Mr. Divine's picture

'There are millions that don't and will go to their graves with same agrieved, entitlement mentality'

You can never be happy if you are always thinking you should have more than what you're getting.

el ninjo's picture

"I'm glad I emigrated to Australia, by far the best place to be in the developed world. "

You mean 'Switzerland'

AJB's picture

This is already happening especially to construction workers. I was talking to a carpenter freind ao mine recently and he told me of five bricklayers he knew who have lost everthing as they were the first to lose work when new houses are stopped being built, he also told me of one who even committed suicide that's the real tradgedy of the recession. I hope the bankers are feeling plaesed with themselves!

elrob's picture

We are an inept nation on housing. And NewLabour was a disgrace to the name Centre left.

No social housing means there are two choices. Rent on possibly just six-month secure tenancy; or get a mortgage on an enormous priced house, with bidders getting home loans until 2007 like drunks being handed the bowl of punch. And leave yourself not only a 25-year slave, but one who has little left over to spend in our consumer economy, ensuring further credit/debt cycle busts.

I remember lenders considering 45-year plus mortgages before the crunch, and G Brown answering a question at one of those leader debates on affordable housing: keep interest rates low. Pathetic!

Either interest rates need to rise to move the market: it will force sales, lower prices and buyers will arrive (simple basic economics); or banks need to repossess.

Repossessions have been kept low because of artificially low rates, and govt guaranteed banks failing to force sales (if they did, the lower priced house sales would damage their balance sheets). People took on too much debt, and like Greece need to default.

So we keep house prices high by pretending there is no problem, like euroland pretends there is no problem. Banks do not sort out their balance sheets and dole out enormous bonuses instead; sellers are insulated from the real world, buyers can't bid the asking prices, sales have crashed by 60%, and furniture suppliers go bust. All in order that we can pretend that the economy is not a stinking mess.

Were we/govt-supported banks to force repossessions on those who cannot pay their mortgage even at interest rates five percentage points below what they should be in a normal market, then those millions desperately looking for somewhere to house their family would find it.

But in order to save people from repossession, we enslave first time buyers, wreck furniture suppliers, insulate unrepentant irresponsible banks, and create a zombie economy.

Brilliant! 250 years of economic thinking, and what have we got? Swapped the pound sterling for leaves on trees as our currency.

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Indu Pendent's picture

@Matt

Foxy, head stuck in that fox hole?

The BOE decides interest rates independently. The coalition have slowed the growth of deficit so government bowwing is not driving the cost of debt up.

Given thats the coalitions plan, how can you say they have been incompetent?

The alternative of borrowing and extra £250Bn would have driven rates up. People voted against more borrowing.

sfdyt's picture

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Hal's picture

There's no prospect of interest rates rising in 2012. We are trapped in an economy with insufficient demand and a government that is throwing away the only tool to deal with it: deficit spending.

Expect internal deflationary pressures to worsen as the cuts bite. The only policy response the Bank of England would have is to lower interest rates but these are already essentially zero, so it can't.

Real interest rates need to be negative for an extended period to get the people with cash to spend again. So external inflationary presures from commodity prices are welcome and the BoE is certainly not going to raise rates to combat that.

Rising interest rates to head off a boom... that would be a luxury compared to the depression in prospect.

Mr. Divine's picture

With rising commodity and energy prices inflation is going to rear it's head, and interest rates will go up. Imagine the chaos of stagflation. Imagine what will happen if interest rates hit double figures and housing prices keep sinking. There is a fast growing world population and a huge boom in Asia pushing up those commodity prices. Then there is the United States trying to get out of the recession by printing vast quantities of paper money, again pushing up prices.

I wouldn't like to be sitting on a big mortgage in Britain. Interest repayments alone could be huge. In fact I would sell now.

Mr. Divine's picture

I have heard that in Southern Ireland people have 400,00 euro mortgages on houses that they can't sell for 150,000. As a consequence all new building has virtually ceased with the multiple effects obviously huge.

I'm glad I emigrated to Australia, by far the best place to be in the developed world.

Ned Kelly's picture

"I'm glad I emigrated to Australia, by far the best place to be in the developed world."

Haha, yeah good one, pmsl.

Federico's picture

So we keep house prices high by pretending there is no problem, like euroland pretends there is no problem. Banks do not sort out their balance sheets and dole out enormous bonuses instead; sellers are insulated from the real world, buyers can't bid the asking prices, sales have crashed by 60%, and furniture suppliers go bust. All in order that we can pretend that the economy is not a stinking mess. http://www.weddings101.org/

elrob's picture

I'm glad I emigrated to Australia, by far the best place to be in the developed world.
----------
Which, according to the Economist, has the most overpriced houses in the world, except for perhaps, parts of China. Australia is still going thru a credit bubble pumped up by being the commodity supplier to China.

If China explodes - and there is plenty of evidence that it will - Australia will see a deep fall in orders, and the only support keeping house prices rising there.

It is Ireland/UK in 2006.

I tell you, if you have a house there; sell! And if history repeats itself; and it does, you'll ignore my advice, because "it's different this time". Except, it's not.

Tom's picture

When the States default (and they will), will the rest of the world be safe from that? No they won't.

Equities will be affected. Interest rates will go up. Many bond holders will sell to protect their shareholders. Obama has said enough with negotiations. Congress will actually solve this in 9 days? Not a chance.

Both party is counting on blaming the other for defaulting. Obama could at the last minute invoke the 14th Amendment and then raise the ceiling. However, putting this off until after the election won't solve anything. Obama and the other politicians all know that.

This means that the ONLY thing that matters is winning in 2012. If it means the economy to maintain our power, then so be it.

mike555's picture

What a disaster the massive housing boom post 1997 was, that's at the root of all this. Unfortunately we have house prices propped up with low rates and Quantitative Easing. We're not even in a recession, never mind a depression, inflation is well above target, yet rates have been at all time lows for more than two years.

The overborrowed seem to get all the help, those who sensibly didn't overborrow are paying the price, what message does this send out to the next generation?

andyg's picture

If you want to be in the Rat race then learn to become a Rat.
The fools play the casino's with not just their lives but their children's. They lose at the tables and then look for someone to blame. They were keen to show me their new car's and £100,000 houses but when I pointed out that these commodities belonged to a bank they called me a communist.
Such is life.

elrob's picture

The overborrowed seem to get all the help, those who sensibly didn't overborrow are paying the price, what message does this send out to the next generation?
---------
It says: get into debt, get into debt to pay for yer dad's BTlet; we'll bail you out; your kids will pick up the tab!
Ringa ringa roses!
All this rot about the deficit; this is the problem!

matthew fox's picture

My understanding is that rates where due to be raised this year, but because of Gideon's incompetence the BOE have had hang fire.

I bet Mervyn King is guilt ridden over his endorsement of Osborne's Plan A.

Mrs.Josephine Hyde-Hartley's picture

The overborrowed seem to get all the help, those who sensibly didn't overborrow are paying the price, what message does this send out to the next generation?

There are people employed to promote the message that debt is a good way to achieve your goals. People end up thinking it's trendy and clever. Saving up for anything has become not only quaint but actually less and less possible. Our very private futures have been scooped up as if they're somebody else's business - albeit business concerns which are normally at least once removed from direct responsibility and accountability.

One thing i oticed about the labour leader's speech delivered to day was that even though he's cottoned on to the general theme of individual irresponsibility that's been a formal characteristic of the financial crisis - he still seems unaware of just how trendy it has been in recent years to make a big show about how much debt one can handle - almost like how much beer can you drink.

How do we measure responsibility at the collective scale as a nation? It seems at the moment a lot of what we do is simply because "everybody's doing it, doing it, doing it.."

historybuff's picture

Thank you Mr Divine. Like you, I realised years back that the UK is full of small minded twits who can only think about how to get more benefits themselves out of the system, while contributing as little as possible themselves; even moaning and groaning that 'rich' people don't pay enough; to them even honest small business people are 'rich', simply because they have worked hard and tried to make something of themselves. Britain is weighed down by this mentality, but luckily for myself and you, we realised it. There are millions that don't and will go to their graves with same agrieved, entitlement mentality. These people are the bedrock of the Labour-voting public, despite what the leadership of the pary and the New Statesman claim.

andyg's picture

@ Mr Divine

I thought that these "biggest average sized houses" were riddled with salt damage. Arn't some of them cracking apart? As for the weather hasn't it dried up your salt pans?

Mr. Divine's picture

elrob: You could be right and in some parts (not mine ..I'm inland) of Australia then house prices are very high .. but again not as high as in Britain. I don't think it is a credit bubble because there have always been strict lending guidelines on credit here.

Australia is experiencing nearly 20 years of excellent growth partly due to rising commodity demand from Asia (not just China) and now prices. Will this demand end? It's like saying will people stop wanting more things? The population is huge in Asia and this will push demand and commodity prices up, therefore further boosting resource rich Australia. Remember the country has a massive agricultural industry.

The other thing about Australia is that the government keeps a very tight rein on debt. It was in surplus in 2008 and spent to avoid recession. Growth is about now about 4%

Next you've got an increasing population with many migrants being skilled and reasonably wealthy. So you've got this input. This means you've always got a need for more houses. The country is in a sweet spot and it's likely to continue. You should emigrate.

I wont sell because I own my big house on 5 acres outright, and I need a place to live with my kids. In fact I would like to see house prices fall here so as I don't have to spend so much of my savings setting up my kids.

Mr. Divine's picture

elrob: Australia has the biggest average sized houses in the world so perhaps on average cost per foot basis it isn't quite as overpriced as the Economist makes out. My house is huge and cost about half a million dollars four years ago. The place I live historically doesn't have big increases or falls but steady rising and flat stages.

I see those house programs in England and people are shown different houses and they say things like "oh this is lovely." I'm thinking what a pokey little expensive hole... and look at the weather.

Mr. Divine's picture

andyg:My half a million quid house belongs to me not any bank. Like the Chinese say, if you think you are so clever why aren't you rich?

Going by most of your comments you're poor and stupid. Salt damage, salt pans!

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