Labour slashes Tory lead to 6 points
Lowest Tory poll lead since 2008 revives prospect of a hung parliament
By George Eaton Published 22 November 2009 2:27
There's a remarkable poll in tomorrow's Observer showing that Labour has cut the Conservatives' lead to just 6 points. This is the Tories' lowest poll lead for almost a year and puts us back in hung parliament territory.
The Ipsos-MORI poll shows the Conservatives' support falling from 43 per cent last month to 37 per cent, with backing for Labour increasing by 5 points to 31 per cent.
According to UK Polling Report's swing calculator, these figures would leave the Tories 38 seats short of an overall Commons majority and just two seats ahead of Labour:
Conservatives: 288 seats (+90)
Labour: 286 seats (-70)
Liberal Democrats: 45 seats (-17)
The fieldwork for the poll was done last weekend, shortly after Labour's convincing victory in the Glasgow North-East by-election, which is likely to have boosted the party.
It's dangerous to read too much into one poll, but these are clearly fantastic figures for Labour six months ahead of a general election.
It was remarkably naive and premature of the Guardian to suggest on Tuesday that Cameron was "closing the deal" with the electorate.
Labour will be justly cheered by this result and the Tories will be more than a little rattled. For the first time in months, the political momentum is with Gordon Brown. The next week should be interesting.
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16 comments
How about Brown being for the Iraq war which ignited the whole region and now uk forces face tens of thousands of IED's.
How about Brown being involved in the whole lehman fiasco and now way over spending 88 times the borrowing last year. Brown let Lehman go which set the economy off the cliff then way overeacted with massive spending. Labour will win a historic fourth term but Brown's legacy is maimed troops and bloated spending and Lehman's fiasco.
Brown was trying to get Geoff Hoon for european commissioner at the EU even though he was involved in expenses fraud and lied about it.
Brown was behind the speaker choice to tick off the tories even though he knew the speaker didn't care about expenses and now is abusing the system himself.
How about Labour's policy of massive immigration just to tick off the tories.
Look at the massive retirements among Labour MP's. This govt is tired and wants to go. I don't think it is healthy to keep a govt for four consecutive terms.
It will be a hung parliament and Brown will have to do shady deals with the SNP just to stay in power.
Brown hasn't given the funds for armored vehicles in afghanistan. My friend was badly maimed.
This govt is the shits. This govt and Brown was in the cabinet had no plan for Iraq, didn't offer protection for the troops and concealed the information from the public.
Labour still didn't want to include expenses reform in the queen's spech because harriet harmon is against it.
The demographcis that labour has created with massive immigration for electoral benefits mean Labour will be in power forever and ever but this government has left thousands of maimed soldiers and put the UK in the worst recession ever. Darling and Brown were directly involved in the Lehman Brotherss fiasco.
UK was first into the recession in spring of 08 and still the last industrialized nation in the recession.
UK economy is now smaller than italy and brown in the 90's mocked major about that. Brown in 2007 when there were clear signs of economic trouble was still talking about how great things were and we were in a golden age.
Brown isn't an economist or war leader.
There were no IED's in afghanistan in 2001 or 2002 before the Iraq war.
Now our troops are being constantly maimed in Afghanistan by IED's because militants that fought in iraq traveled to pakistan and taught the taliban about ied's.
Brown sat in the cabinet in 2003 and supported the iraq war. It is a disgrace that he is still in power when so many of our troops are suffering daily because of that. Then Brown doesn't even open up the funds for armored vehicles. I don't know how he sleeps at night.
4th term or not Brown there is something bigger than poltics and Brown's support of the Iraq war has caused the maiming of thousands of UK troops. There is more trauma surgery on uk troops on a monthly basis than in all of the UK.
Go cheer about Brown and Labour's historic 4th term but in real life Brown has lead to the maiming of thousands of UK troops.
Brown is still lying saying that we are in afghanistan to stop an attack in the UK when that is such a baldface lie.
But that doesn't matter the only thing that matters is Brown winning.
Dream on for every immigrant vote Labour may get Labour will lose 10 working class votes middleclass lefties my be rejoicing at this latest poll rating but don't hold your breath.
This is a very suspect poll indeed.
It was carried out at the same time as the ICM poll before last weekend.
Labour would have been jumping from the rafters if this was correct.
You have to ask yourself why has it taken so long to be published..
Does it have anything to do with the following of more bad news for Brown over the Europe stitchup.
George: i wouldn't get too excited. the polls are incredibly volatile at present. the key thing, though, is that there is no great love for cameron and his gang in the country at large. labour have disappointed. but what can the tories offer?
The question is why did the The Observer sit on this poll for 7 days?
Last week-end there were two polls out showing a Tory lead of 11 and 10%, and the The Observer did not want to publish theirs as no body would take any notice of it. So they have now published it at a week-end that there are no other polls? !!!!!!!!!!!
Great news! Labour are fighters, not quitters.
Labour may have lost a lot of working class support, but the Tories never had it, and they never will. The reason they're losing working class support? They've behaved like Tories. Dragging us into a war nobody wanted just to suck up to Bush, of course Cameron would've done the same. Bailing out the greedy bankers, of course Cameron would do that. The Tories ARE the bankers and brokers who screwed the economy, and people know it. Behave like Tories, lose elections. That's the lesson. The Tories are so hated, they'll never see a good majority again. Unless they start behaving like a Labour party. British politics is a farce.
Great news! Labour are fighters, not quitters Labour has done no fighting for the working class and now have very little popular support in working class communities Swatantra and as for not been quitters most working class man have given up on Labour and it's mad anti-white working class politics a long time ago. Labour are FINISHED!! AND ALL THE REST IS BULL ****
I've got to celebrate - have a glass of wine. Fab news. Come on Labour - please knock Dave off his perch!
Its amazing. At least people are starting to see Brown is someone we Brits should be proud of
I would never vote for the Tories. I am with Brown to the end or maybe just maybe... the beginning
Sorry to burst your bubble but new poll puts tory lead at 17 points. Labour 22% one percent above Lib dems. You lose Goodnight.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/11/23/pb-angus-...
Great news. The fight back begins. The more the
Tories are exposed for their real agenda, the
more people will see what their options are. Keep
going Gordon!
Yay! I knew it would come eventually, I just hope it doesnt disappear. People will eventually realise voting Cameron in on a whim is not a good enough reason and the policies of the Tories only need a little scutiny to see they suck and would destroy Britain