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Is Labour heading for election meltdown?

Private polling suggests the party could be reduced to 120 MPs

Jackie Ashley's column in today's Guardian includes this remarkable detail:

Some Labour people may think I'm sounding too gloomy, but those who have been privy to recent private polling are a lot more than gloomy. This suggests that Labour could return to the Commons with just 120 MPs or thereabouts, taking the party back to 1930s territory. As ministers look for jobs to keep themselves going after politics, a Miliband move to Europe looks sensible.

This would be Labour's poorest result since the 1931 election when it was reduced to a rump of 52 MPs after the prime minister, Ramsay MacDonald, split the party by forming a coalition with the Conservatives.

I think there's little chance of Labour enduring a defeat of that magnitude, but the party could lose more MPs once the Tories are in office, as a new Compass pamphlet, The Last Labour Government, warns.

First, David Cameron's plan to reduce the number of MPs by 10 per cent will hit Labour hardest by scrapping seats in Wales and industrial areas that have seen population flight. One expert prediction suggests that of the 65 seats that would go, 45 are Labour-held.

Second, the election of a Conservative government could trigger Scottish independence, with a referendum due to be held before the end of 2010. Of the 59 Westminster seats that would be automatically lost, 41 are Labour-held.

The latest polling figures suggest that Labour will be left with 209 seats after the next election, but the combined effect of Cameron's cull and Scottish independence could leave the party with as few as 123 seats.

I'm increasingly doubtful that Labour has either the activists or the funds required to mount anything like an adequate general election campaign. The party now has just 150,000 members, down from 405,000 at the height of New Labour in 1997.

The Sunday Times reported yesterday on how the party's cash crisis has hit its campaign offices: "Labour's banks have imposed a recruitment freeze on head office, and the party is operating just 20 of the 80 telephone lines it usually runs at its call centre in the months leading up to an election."

Those on the left who want to see the Labour Party survive as a viable force in British politics (and many now don't) should start paying their dues.

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13 comments from readers

iainburnshill
09 November 2009 at 12:19

This is the party's reward for ignoring the electorate. Who supports its warmongering, or its hysterical security agenda? Does Labour ever ask itself who it represents? [If it does, the answers - arms dealers, neocons and American interests everywhere - will help explain why it faces oblivion].

old tribune
09 November 2009 at 12:49

iainburnshill, I can't fault your comments, so I will just endorse what you say.

Neither Blair nor Brown have taken any notice of what the people want. Both Blair and Brown have reneged on election promises, lied to us, used parliament as a rubber-stamp for their decrees, replaced democracy with authoritarian government and pushed Britain to being closest to a police state it has ever been.

Tom
09 November 2009 at 14:00

Well the analysis is spot on. Labour heading for an electoral rump. Add in a bit of anti-Labour tactical voting and job done.

In many parts of the UK they have already ceased to exist as an effective electoral force. 5th place in the Euro-elections in the south east. County Council candidates polling 2-3%.

They only bit I'd quibble with is the idea that people on the left (like me) would want to see Labour survive as a viable force. Labour hasn't been on the left since Blair took over.

The Conservatives say they will be the most unpopualr government in history within 6 months. Who are people goingt o turn to ? Not Labour. Cometh the hour cometh the Lib Dems.

Tom
09 November 2009 at 14:02

Of course it could all have been so different if Labour had stuck to it's pledge on electoral reform. Then Labour wouldn't have been able to implent so many wrong and unpopular decisions. Having made their bed, Labour will have to lie in it.

firsttimer
09 November 2009 at 15:48

Tom,

Even after 12 years the Tories are still unable to mount an effective electoral force in Scotland, while the Lib-Dems have never been an effective electoral force EXCEPT in a handful of places around the UK.

If Cameron is handed a majority big enough to allow him to carry out his undemocratic national-scale Gerrymandering then conservatives will have succeeded in their project of divide and rule - ensuring that progressive middle classes and working classes can never again make common cause.

Hyperbole about a 'police state' misses the point of public services that so many people rely on.

Having said that - you're right about electoral reform.

Luddite.
09 November 2009 at 17:54

Labour is nolonger a working man's party it's disloyalty it's subversive behaviour it's treachery will put the politcal-left into the wilderness for a generation Labour forget what it was about it lost the plot and are the workers bothered not in the slightest we can live with another tory government after all we kown they hate us.

old tribune
09 November 2009 at 19:08

first timer, if you think claims that we are nearer to a police state are hyperbole, you have missed a lot of points too. How do “public services that so many people rely on“ excuse attacks on democracy? The Soviet Union had excellent public services; does that make their system acceptable?

The imposition of an ID Card / NIR scheme, condemned by the Government’s own Gateway Review because it breaks all 10 of the Government’s principles (Gordon Brown attempted to block FoI access to the results of the review), and other anti-democratic measures is opposed by a former head of MI5 (Dame Stella Rimington), the head of the CPS, a former Attorney General, eminent law experts, the International Commission of Jurists (ICJ), the Joseph Rowntree Trust, many Labour MPs, Conservative and Lib-Dem MPs and most well-informed people, including the Information Commissioner who warned of the dangers of the extreme measures, and said we were sleepwalking into a police state.

Dame Stella Rimington accused the government of exploiting the fear of terrorism and trying to bring in laws that restrict civil liberties. She said, "It would be better that the government recognised that there are risks, rather than frightening people in order to be able to pass laws which restrict civil liberties, precisely one of the objects of terrorism - that we live in fear and under a police state."

The International Commission of Jurists (ICJ), accuses the US and the UK of undermining the framework of international law. Mary Robinson, the president of the ICJ said: "...it is time to take stock and to repeal abusive laws and policies enacted in recent years… Human rights and international humanitarian law provide a strong and flexible framework to address terrorist threats."

The Guardian recently revealed that people who exercise their right to protest are being recorded on secret police databases as “domestic extremists”.

Also, Scotland Yard faces calls for an "ethical audit" of all officers in its controversial riot squad, the Territorial Support Group, tonight after figures revealed that they had received more than 5,000 complaint allegations, mostly for "oppressive behaviour". Details of all allegations lodged against the Metropolitan police territorial support group (TSG) over the last four years reveal that only nine – less than 0.18% – were "substantiated" after an investigation by the force's complaints department.

Jenny Jones, a member of the Metropolitan Police Authority (MPA), the force's watchdog, said tonight the figures revealed TSG officers were "practically immune" from criticism in the force.

"The fact that less than 0.2% of complaints about the TSG succeed, suggest its officers are protected within the Met to the extent that there is a culture of impunity for their actions," she said. "It's time for an ethical audit and a thorough overhaul. They desperately need better training, rotation of personnel, and reduction of duties to make them fit for purpose."

Fiona Murphy, solicitor to one complainant, said: "The figures either mean thousands of members of the public are taking the trouble to make fabricated complaints against the TSG, which seems unlikely, or there is a systemic problem with the complaints procedure that means it is virtually impossible for officers in the unit to be held to account for their actions."

The comment by a senior police officer on the death of Ian Tomlinson who died after being hit by a TSG officer is revealing. He said it was difficult to tell who was a passer-by and who was a protester. The implication is that it was acceptable to hit a protester.

When you include the gross injustice by police and the law against Jean Charles de Menezes (mistakenly shot by police) and his family, it certainly looks closer to a police state than I have ever known here. The Labour Government not only condones these changes but is directly responsible for them.

Luddite.
09 November 2009 at 19:53

With Labour's rich supporters tuning back to the tories and with Labour's traditional supporters turning to National Socialism what future does the Labour party have.

Sean Britania
10 November 2009 at 03:23

I could not agree more with these posts if I tried and we all remember the add new labour new danger- well looks like that was not an idle threat and no one party has done so much damage to a single nation without conflict while the general population do sleep with distraction in creep the Trojan horse to unleash their dictatorship and authoritarian world onto the un suspecting

Nu lies

Nu Rules

Nu Arrivals

Nu Agenda

Nu Dictatorship

Nu Constitutions

Nu War Criminals

Nu Big Brother State

Nu Foreign aid swindles

Nu Restrictions of right to protest

Nu 42 Million per day euro swindle

Nu European red tape and Lawful control

(You know what they say muck rolls down hill and we the people are at the bottom).

And what makes this bad is no one gets asked about this and the sooner these criminals get flushed down the S-bend of political history the better for British people.

Luddite.
10 November 2009 at 06:44

With the Labour party these day's it's like where Wally no branch meetings no work place organisations no community groups no more roots into the working class and with a membership of less than 150.000 most over 60 with some maybe still card holding members of the party but are more likely to vote BNP.

and with Labour's rich backers turning back to the tories and it's traditional supporters turning to National Socialism what future does the Labour party have all this is a direct consequens of the left's flirtation with Islamic-fascism political correctness and vile multculturalism the left have lost the bloody plot. Socialism as nothing in common with Islamic-fascism.

Wastoid
10 November 2009 at 12:18

I agree that Labour are (rightly) facing political oblivion, but I would query the notion that the root of the problem lies in the draconian security measures they have implemented. In a sense this is mistaking the symptoms for the cause.

Many of the undemocratic practices at the heart of government can be traced back to the growth and influence of unaccountable 'adviser' which, I believe, first appeared with Wilson, and subsequently augmented by the anti-christ (Mrs. T). Together with the concentration of power in the hands of the executive (remember the endless tussle between the Thatcher admin and the judiciary, as the former attempted to encroach on the privileges of the latter), this added up to a recipie for elected tyranny.

With the huge majority gained by Labour in '97 there was never any doubt that the executive would relinquish these powers. Moreover, if Cameron gains a landslide victory (and there's no guarantee that this will happen), there is little reason to believe that they will devolve power.

The only real devolution of power has been in the financial sector (another story).

Role on the national security state.

Winniethepooh
10 November 2009 at 13:55

Excellent article and excellent posts. Doesn't make the future any less palatable though. Would that people vote tactically and there's a hung parliament...

GoldFishBrain
10 November 2009 at 15:53

I think there's often a swing back to the governing party. Perhaps it'll be enough to deny Cameron a majority. Otherwise we're all stuffed. Also UKIP may deny the tories some seats. Shame Brown didn't bring in AV voting system before. It would have checked the smaller nastier party.

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