A good week for Gordon Brown

Three pieces of good news for Brown

So, despite the vehement campaign against him by Britain's biggest-selling daily paper, this has turned into a good week for Gordon Brown. It may have been unthinkable for Labour not to win last night's by-election in Glasgow North-East, a seat it has held for 74 years, but few expected the party to triumph by the margin it did.

The by-election victory was the third piece of good news Brown has had this week. First, a Times/Populus poll on Tuesday demonstrated that a hung parliament remains a distinct possibility at the next election. The Conservatives' lead of 10 points would translate into a Commons majority of only two.

Second, a PoliticsHome poll revealed that 65 per cent of voters believe the Sun's reporting of Brown's letter to Jacqui Janes became an "inappropriate attack", and that almost half of the electorate is now more inclined to defend the Prime Minister.

Perhaps buoyed by these figures and the by-election success, Brown gave the most articulate and fluid performance I've heard from him for weeks on the Today programme this morning.

Professor John Curtice noted the key to Labour's success last night when he observed: "They fought as the opposition to the SNP." But he provided a sober dose of reality when he pointed out: "The recipe for success in Glasgow is not one that can be repeated in England and Wales."

Lord Mandelson and Harriet Harman have attempted to mount an insurgent campaign by consistently referring to Labour as the "underdog". But in England at least, the party continues to be seen as the establishment.

In order to change this, Labour must gamble on a referendum on electoral reform before the next election. The Conservatives remain wedded to the unjust first-past-the-post system. Perhaps on this issue alone, David Cameron would be left defending the status quo.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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The Fire Brigades Union reaffiliates to Labour - what does it mean?

Any union rejoining Labour will be welcomed by most in the party - but the impact on the party's internal politics will be smaller than you think.

The Fire Brigades Union (FBU) has voted to reaffiliate to the Labour party, in what is seen as a boost to Jeremy Corbyn. What does it mean for Labour’s internal politics?

Firstly, technically, the FBU has never affliated before as they are notionally part of the civil service - however, following the firefighters' strike in 2004, they decisively broke with Labour.

The main impact will be felt on the floor of Labour party conference. Although the FBU’s membership – at around 38,000 – is too small to have a material effect on the outcome of votes themselves, it will change the tenor of the motions put before party conference.

The FBU’s leadership is not only to the left of most unions in the Trades Union Congress (TUC), it is more inclined to bring motions relating to foreign affairs than other unions with similar politics (it is more internationalist in focus than, say, the PCS, another union that may affiliate due to Corbyn’s leadership). Motions on Israel/Palestine, the nuclear deterrent, and other issues, will find more support from FBU delegates than it has from other affiliated trade unions.

In terms of the balance of power between the affiliated unions themselves, the FBU’s re-entry into Labour politics is unlikely to be much of a gamechanger. Trade union positions, elected by trade union delegates at conference, are unlikely to be moved leftwards by the reaffiliation of the FBU. Unite, the GMB, Unison and Usdaw are all large enough to all-but-guarantee themselves a seat around the NEC. Community, a small centrist union, has already lost its place on the NEC in favour of the bakers’ union, which is more aligned to Tom Watson than Jeremy Corbyn.

Matt Wrack, the FBU’s General Secretary, will be a genuine ally to Corbyn and John McDonnell. Len McCluskey and Dave Prentis were both bounced into endorsing Corbyn by their executives and did so less than wholeheartedly. Tim Roache, the newly-elected General Secretary of the GMB, has publicly supported Corbyn but is seen as a more moderate voice at the TUC. Only Dave Ward of the Communication Workers’ Union, who lent staff and resources to both Corbyn’s campaign team and to the parliamentary staff of Corbyn and McDonnell, is truly on side.

The impact of reaffiliation may be felt more keenly in local parties. The FBU’s membership looks small in real terms compared Unite and Unison have memberships of over a million, while the GMB and Usdaw are around the half-a-million mark, but is much more impressive when you consider that there are just 48,000 firefighters in Britain. This may make them more likely to participate in internal elections than other affiliated trade unionists, just 60,000 of whom voted in the Labour leadership election in 2015. However, it is worth noting that it is statistically unlikely most firefighters are Corbynites - those that are will mostly have already joined themselves. The affiliation, while a morale boost for many in the Labour party, is unlikely to prove as significant to the direction of the party as the outcome of Unison’s general secretary election or the struggle for power at the top of Unite in 2018. 

Stephen Bush is editor of the Staggers, the New Statesman’s political blog.