Tory poll lead down 5 points

Is this a negative reaction to Osborne's austere speech?

When not blogging for Free Speech, I also run the NS polls guide, and the YouGov/Sky News poll released a few minutes ago caught my eye. It puts the Conservatives on 40 per cent, with Labour on 31 per cent and the Lib Dems on 18 per cent. Not only is this Labour's highest level of support since April, but the Tories' lead has shrunk from 14 points to 9 points. The Conservatives need to win by at least 9 per cent to be sure of a Commons majority and anything less than this puts us in hung parliament territory.

Could the new figures be a negative reaction to George Osborne's austere speech which, for some, promised a freeze in their pay and cuts to their tax credits, as well as a rise in the retirement age? The first poll conducted after his speech boosted the Tories but it's possible the more in-depth coverage has shifted the public mood. We'll find out tomorrow whether David Cameron's attempt at optimism can reverse this slide.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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Gerald Kaufman dies aged 86

Before becoming an MP, Kaufman's varied career included a stint as the NS' theatre critic.

Gerald Kaufman, the Labour MP for Manchester Gorton and former theatre critic at the New Statesman, has died.

Kaufman, who served as the MP for Manchester Gorton continuously from 1970, had a varied career before entering Parliament, working for the Fabian Society in addition to his flourishing career in journalism and as a satirist, writing for That Was The Week That Was and as a leader writer on the Mirror. In 1965, he exchanged the press for politics, working as a press officer and an aide to Harold Wilson before he was elected to parliament in 1970.

Upon Labour’s return to office in 1974, he served as a junior minister until the party’s defeat in 1979, and on the opposition frontbenches until 1992, reaching the position of shadow foreign secretary. In 1999, he was chair of the Man Booker Prize, which that year was won by JM Coetzee’s Disgrace.

His death opens up a by-election in Manchester Gorton, which Labour is expected to win. 

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. His daily briefing, Morning Call, provides a quick and essential guide to British politics.