When not blogging for Free Speech, I also run the NS polls guide, and the YouGov/Sky News poll released a few minutes ago caught my eye. It puts the Conservatives on 40 per cent, with Labour on 31 per cent and the Lib Dems on 18 per cent. Not only is this Labour's highest level of support since April, but the Tories' lead has shrunk from 14 points to 9 points. The Conservatives need to win by at least 9 per cent to be sure of a Commons majority and anything less than this puts us in hung parliament territory.

Could the new figures be a negative reaction to George Osborne's austere speech which, for some, promised a freeze in their pay and cuts to their tax credits, as well as a rise in the retirement age? The first poll conducted after his speech boosted the Tories but it's possible the more in-depth coverage has shifted the public mood. We'll find out tomorrow whether David Cameron's attempt at optimism can reverse this slide.