The reverse-sovereign-debt-crisis hits businesses, too

Now Unilever and Texas Instruments are the new safe havens.

It has long been clear that the world is experiencing, in the words of Business Insider's Joe Weisenthal, "the opposite of a sovereign debt crisis".

Governments, seen as one of the last safe havens for money in the world, have experienced collapsing bond yields, leading them, in many cases, to be paid to borrow money. This is partly borne out of fear of another banking crisis, but it's also due to a complete failure on the part of businesses to actually find anything to do with their record cash hauls. As tech investor Peter Thiel put it in a conversation with Google's Eric Schmidt:

Google is a great company. It has 30,000 people, or 20,000, whatever the number is. They have pretty safe jobs. On the other hand, Google also has 30, 40, 50 billion in cash. It has no idea how to invest that money in technology effectively. So, it prefers getting zero percent interest from Mr. Bernanke, effectively the cash sort of gets burned away over time through inflation, because there are no ideas that Google has how to spend money.

There was always going to be a limit to even what these risk-fearing companies were willing to accept when it came to negative yields, however, and the question was what would happen when they hit that floor.

Now we have our answer. Joe Weisenthal:

Unilever, the large European food conglomerate, just sold $550 million worth of 5-year notes with a coupon of just 0.85 percent. According to Bloomberg, this is the lowest ever borrowing cost for U.S. debt. . .

And just like that, Texas Instrument has broken a record for the lowest coupon on 3-year debt at just 0.45 percent according to Bloomberg.

When sovereign debt gets too expensive, then corporations the size of sovereigns become the new safe haven. Where will it end?

This chart, from the St Louis Federal Reserve, shows the average yield on Aaa rated corporate bonds.

Alex Hern is a technology reporter for the Guardian. He was formerly staff writer at the New Statesman. You should follow Alex on Twitter.

Getty Images.
Show Hide image

Theresa May knows she's talking nonsense - here's why she's doing it

The Prime Minister's argument increases the sense that this is a time to "lend" - in her words - the Tories your vote.

Good morning.  Angela Merkel and Theresa May are more similar politicians than people think, and that holds true for Brexit too. The German Chancellor gave a speech yesterday, and the message: Brexit means Brexit.

Of course, the emphasis is slightly different. When May says it, it's about reassuring the Brexit elite in SW1 that she isn't going to backslide, and anxious Remainers and soft Brexiteers in the country that it will work out okay in the end.

When Merkel says it, she's setting out what the EU wants and the reality of third country status outside the European Union.  She's also, as with May, tilting to her own party and public opinion in Germany, which thinks that the UK was an awkward partner in the EU and is being even more awkward in the manner of its leaving.

It's a measure of how poor the debate both during the referendum and its aftermath is that Merkel's bland statement of reality - "A third-party state - and that's what Britain will be - can't and won't be able to have the same rights, let alone a better position than a member of the European Union" - feels newsworthy.

In the short term, all this helps Theresa May. Her response - delivered to a carefully-selected audience of Leeds factory workers, the better to avoid awkward questions - that the EU is "ganging up" on Britain is ludicrous if you think about it. A bloc of nations acting in their own interest against their smaller partners - colour me surprised!

But in terms of what May wants out of this election - a massive majority that gives her carte blanche to implement her agenda and puts Labour out of contention for at least a decade - it's a great message. It increases the sense that this is a time to "lend" - in May's words - the Tories your vote. You may be unhappy about the referendum result, you may usually vote Labour - but on this occasion, what's needed is a one-off Tory vote to make Brexit a success.

May's message is silly if you pay any attention to how the EU works or indeed to the internal politics of the EU27. That doesn't mean it won't be effective.

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. His daily briefing, Morning Call, provides a quick and essential guide to British politics.

0800 7318496