Credit markets don't trust Greece to stay in the euro

Could be a mechanical grexit? A mecha-grexit?

Via Pragmatic Capitalism comes this mildly alarming note from research group Capital Economics:

Recently, the problem of tight credit conditions have been exacerbated by domestic and foreign firms becoming more unwilling to sell goods to Greek customers unless they are paid for up front. In other words, credit risk is stopping some transactions from taking place. What’s more, some foreign buyers of Greek goods and services are delaying payment, in case Greece exits and the size of their bill (in euro-terms) drops.

Meanwhile, the bank jog continues. And Capital Economics predict 2012's contraction to be three points worse than the EU's forecast, and 2013's to be seven points worse.

All of which is to say that the political aspect of the situation is getting less and less relevent. If investors, trade partners, and, yes, Greek citizens themselves carry on behaving as if Greece has already confirmed it is exiting the euro, there is every chance that a they may create a self-fulfilling prophecy. Earlier this month, Paul Mason explained how bank withdrawals can force such an event, and its not hard to see how entirely cutting Greece off from credit or international trade would do the same thing (although slightly less mechanically).

The difference for the Greek people between a politically motivated exit and a economically forced one is likely to be small, of course. But for the broader continent, particularly the rest of the periphery, the latter presents a much higher chance of contagion. Because if a country can end up outside the eurozone despite its leaders, then there doesn't seem much that, for example, Rajoy could say to save Spain at all. Actions must speak louder than words.

Alexis Tsipras, head of SYRIZA, leaves the presidential palace in Athens. Photograph: Getty Images

Alex Hern is a technology reporter for the Guardian. He was formerly staff writer at the New Statesman. You should follow Alex on Twitter.

Photo: Getty
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Fight: Arron Banks versus Mary Beard on the fall of Rome

On the one hand: one of Britain's most respected classicists. On the other: Nigel Farage's sugar daddy. 

Tom Lehrer once said that he would quit satire after Henry Kissinger – him of napalm strikes and the Nixon administration – received the Nobel Peace Prize.

Your mole is likewise minded to hand in hat, glasses and pen after the latest clash of the titans.

In the blue corner: Arron Banks, insurance millionaire and Nigel Farage’s sugar daddy.

In the red corner: Mary Beard, Professor of Classics, University of Cambridge, documentarian, author, historian of the ancient world.

It all started when Banks suggested that the fall of the Roman Empire was down to…you guessed it, immigration:

To which Beard responded:

Now, some might back down at this point. But not Banks, the only bank that never suffers from a loss of confidence.

Did Banks have another life as a classical scholar, perhaps? Twitter users were intrigued as to where he learnt so much about the ancient world. To which Banks revealed all:

I, Claudius is a novel. It was written in 1934, and concerns events approximately three centuries from the fall of Rome. But that wasn't the end of Banks' expertise:

Gladiator is a 2000 film. It is set 200 years before the fall of Rome.

Your mole rests. 

I'm a mole, innit.