Credit markets don't trust Greece to stay in the euro

Could be a mechanical grexit? A mecha-grexit?

Via Pragmatic Capitalism comes this mildly alarming note from research group Capital Economics:

Recently, the problem of tight credit conditions have been exacerbated by domestic and foreign firms becoming more unwilling to sell goods to Greek customers unless they are paid for up front. In other words, credit risk is stopping some transactions from taking place. What’s more, some foreign buyers of Greek goods and services are delaying payment, in case Greece exits and the size of their bill (in euro-terms) drops.

Meanwhile, the bank jog continues. And Capital Economics predict 2012's contraction to be three points worse than the EU's forecast, and 2013's to be seven points worse.

All of which is to say that the political aspect of the situation is getting less and less relevent. If investors, trade partners, and, yes, Greek citizens themselves carry on behaving as if Greece has already confirmed it is exiting the euro, there is every chance that a they may create a self-fulfilling prophecy. Earlier this month, Paul Mason explained how bank withdrawals can force such an event, and its not hard to see how entirely cutting Greece off from credit or international trade would do the same thing (although slightly less mechanically).

The difference for the Greek people between a politically motivated exit and a economically forced one is likely to be small, of course. But for the broader continent, particularly the rest of the periphery, the latter presents a much higher chance of contagion. Because if a country can end up outside the eurozone despite its leaders, then there doesn't seem much that, for example, Rajoy could say to save Spain at all. Actions must speak louder than words.

Alexis Tsipras, head of SYRIZA, leaves the presidential palace in Athens. Photograph: Getty Images

Alex Hern is a technology reporter for the Guardian. He was formerly staff writer at the New Statesman. You should follow Alex on Twitter.

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Tissues and issues for Labour: Corbynite celebrity Charlotte Church votes Plaid Cymru

The singer, who championed Corbyn's leadership, has voted for Labour's rivals in the Welsh Assembly election.

Charlotte Church, hot on the anti-auserity campaign trail and a regular at pro-Corbyn rallies, has voted for Plaid Cymru.

Here is her tweet supporting Labour's rivals, on the day of the Welsh Assembly elections:

The singer's vote suggests she has fallen out of love with Corbyn; she had previously made her support for the Labour leader known by performing at "Jeremy Corbyn for PM" fundraisers for him, and writing an endorsement of his leadership:

"The inverse of Nigel Farage, he appears to be a cool-headed, honest, considerate man, one of the few modern politicians who doesn’t seem to have been trained in neuro-linguistic programming, unconflicted in his political views, and abstemious in his daily life. He is one of the only politicians of note that seems to truly recognise the dire inequality that exists in this country today and actually have a problem with it. There is something inherently virtuous about him, and that is a quality that can rally the support of a lot of people, and most importantly, a lot of young people. With the big three zero on the horizon for me, I don’t know if I still count as a “young person”. What I can say is that for the first time in my adult life there is a politician from a mainstream party who shares my views and those of most people I know, and also has a chance of actually doing something to create a shift in the paradigm, from corporate puppetry to conscientious societal representation."

And, as Guido points out, Church is not the only celebrity Corbyn champion who has witheld support for Labour today. The actor Emma Thompson, who backed Corbyn for Labour leader, has endorsed the Women's Equality Party in the London mayoral election.

I'm a mole, innit.