Opinionomics | 23 April 2012

Must-read comment and analysis. Featuring the entrepreneurial state, the austere state, and the Unit

1. IMF encourages Europe's economic suicide (Telegraph)

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard argues that the IMF’s pledge to increase its rescue fund to $1 trillion encourages EMU and German elites to believe wrongly that the essence of this crisis is a speculative attack on the euro.

2. Without state spending there'd be no Google or GlaxoSmithKline (Guardian)

Mariana Mazzucato argues for the "entrepreneurial state"

3. Austerity is no answer (Times)

Sam Fleming writes that western policymakers are, in the words of Andrés Velasco, Chile’s charismatic former finance minster, “screwing up”.

4. Crisis, what crisis? (Stumbling and Mumbling)

Chris Dillow points out that this crisis is worse than in the 1970s, but there is less of the accompanying sense of despair. He asks why this might be.

5. The Amnesia Candidate (New York Times)

"Just how stupid does Mitt Romney think we are?", asks Paul Krugman.

The shadow of French presidential front-runner François Hollande, who has spooked markets with anti-finance rhetoric. Photograph: Getty Images

Alex Hern is a technology reporter for the Guardian. He was formerly staff writer at the New Statesman. You should follow Alex on Twitter.

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Will Jeremy Corbyn stand down if Labour loses the general election?

Defeat at the polls might not be the end of Corbyn’s leadership.

The latest polls suggest that Labour is headed for heavy defeat in the June general election. Usually a general election loss would be the trigger for a leader to quit: Michael Foot, Gordon Brown and Ed Miliband all stood down after their first defeat, although Neil Kinnock saw out two losses before resigning in 1992.

It’s possible, if unlikely, that Corbyn could become prime minister. If that prospect doesn’t materialise, however, the question is: will Corbyn follow the majority of his predecessors and resign, or will he hang on in office?

Will Corbyn stand down? The rules

There is no formal process for the parliamentary Labour party to oust its leader, as it discovered in the 2016 leadership challenge. Even after a majority of his MPs had voted no confidence in him, Corbyn stayed on, ultimately winning his second leadership contest after it was decided that the current leader should be automatically included on the ballot.

This year’s conference will vote on to reform the leadership selection process that would make it easier for a left-wing candidate to get on the ballot (nicknamed the “McDonnell amendment” by centrists): Corbyn could be waiting for this motion to pass before he resigns.

Will Corbyn stand down? The membership

Corbyn’s support in the membership is still strong. Without an equally compelling candidate to put before the party, Corbyn’s opponents in the PLP are unlikely to initiate another leadership battle they’re likely to lose.

That said, a general election loss could change that. Polling from March suggests that half of Labour members wanted Corbyn to stand down either immediately or before the general election.

Will Corbyn stand down? The rumours

Sources close to Corbyn have said that he might not stand down, even if he leads Labour to a crushing defeat this June. They mention Kinnock’s survival after the 1987 general election as a precedent (although at the 1987 election, Labour did gain seats).

Will Corbyn stand down? The verdict

Given his struggles to manage his own MPs and the example of other leaders, it would be remarkable if Corbyn did not stand down should Labour lose the general election. However, staying on after a vote of no-confidence in 2016 was also remarkable, and the mooted changes to the leadership election process give him a reason to hold on until September in order to secure a left-wing succession.

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