Hollande forced into U-turn after France's "Pigeons" swoop on tax plan

Atlas shrugs in France, and wins.

François Hollande was pressured into reneging on a highly unpopular tax bill on Thursday after fiscal changes outlined in the 2013 budget provoked uproar amongst France’s entrepreneurial sector.

The climb-down came after a viral barrage launched by a group of web entrepreneurs calling themselves ‘Les Pigeons’ (French slang for ‘chumps’). The movement has garnered a significant wave of support, with almost 63,000 members on Facebook alone and the hashtag #geonpi trending worldwide on Twitter.

At present, French entrepreneurs pay 19 per cent capital gains tax (plus 15.5 per cent in social security contributions). New measures announced in the September 28th budget pledged to bring capital tax in line with income tax, meaning that start-ups that take in over €150,000 annually (most of them) would be forced to pay a whopping 45 per cent in capital gains tax, practically double the current amount. When added to the mandatory 15.5 per cent in social contributions, the total tax rate clocks in at a staggering 60 per cent.

To put that into perspective, the average European capital gains tax lies somewhere between 18 and 25 per cent, with maximum rates set in the UK (28 per cent) and Germany (26.4 per cent).

"Les Pigeons" protest that such shifts in the country’s fiscal policy are unfairly skewed against the startup community. Commentators warn that such tax increases could decapitate France’s entrepreneurial base, choking innovation and rendering small businesses creation almost entirely untenable.

Crucially, Hollande’s decision to introduce such exorbitant tax hikes represents a fundamental backtrack on earlier campaign pledges to re-balance taxes in favour of startups, leaving many entrepreneurs asking themselves if they still have a future in France.

“The government thinks France’s entrepreneurs are pigeons”, the movement’s Facebook page declares. “Anti-economic policies are crushing the entrepreneurial spirit and exposing France to a big risk”.

The formidable lobbying force of the ‘Pigeons’ movement led to finance minister, Pierre Moscovici, setting up emergency talks with entrepreneurs last Thursday to negotiate changes to the tax bill.

“We don’t want to give the impression that we want to punish the Pigeons”, a Hollande representative told Reuters. “We’ll find a solution … the Pigeons should return to their nest”.

However, despite the climb-down, Hollande has set a dangerous precedent. By alienating France’s thriving entrepreneurial community, he runs the risk of squandering the sector’s promising economic potential. A study of 108 French SMEs revealed a drastic 33 per cent growth in revenue from €753m in 2010 to €1bn in 2011. These impressive growth rates ran parallel to a 24 per cent increase in employment figures, with most workers employed under a CDI contract - the strongest of its type in France.

The decision to saddle such a burgeoning sector with a salvo of taxes seems confusing at a time when many of country’s larger corporations find themselves struggling to remain competitive. Peugeot and Bouygues have already laid off thousands this summer and the mood in the French business community is souring. Hollande is alienating small business precisely when he needs them to drive growth.

Such economic oversight comes at a bad time for Hollande. With unemployment at a 13-year high and 2013 growth forecasted at shocking -0.2 per cent, Hollande’s perceived pursuit of an anti-capitalist, anti-economic agenda won’t do him any favours - especially if he is to fulfill his election promise to hoist the French economy back on its feet.

Concerns are rising in France that the government’s strident model of budgetary rigour is simply incompatible with nurturing a flourishing entrepreneurial sector.

For François, the Honeymoon has ended abruptly. And with his approval rating plummeting from 56 to 41 per cent since his inauguration, he needs all the friends he can get.

François Hollande. Photo: Parti Socialiste

Alex Ward is a London-based freelance journalist who has previously worked for the Times & the Press Association. Twitter: @alexward3000

Photo: Getty
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Emmanuel Macron can win - but so can Marine Le Pen

Macron is the frontrunner, but he remains vulnerable to an upset. 

French presidential candidate Emmanuel Macron is campaigning in the sixth largest French city aka London today. He’s feeling buoyed by polls showing not only that he is consolidating his second place but that the voters who have put him there are increasingly comfortable in their choice

But he’ll also be getting nervous that those same polls show Marine Le Pen increasing her second round performance a little against both him and François Fillon, the troubled centre-right candidate. Her slight increase, coming off the back of riots after the brutal arrest of a 22-year-old black man and Macron’s critical comments about the French empire in Algeria is a reminder of two things: firstly the potential for domestic crisis or terror attack to hand Le Pen a late and decisive advantage.  Secondly that Macron has not been doing politics all that long and the chance of a late implosion on his part cannot be ruled out either.

That many of his voters are former supporters of either Fillon or the Socialist Party “on holiday” means that he is vulnerable should Fillon discover a sense of shame – highly unlikely but not impossible either – and quit in favour of a centre-right candidate not mired in scandal. And if Benoît Hamon does a deal with Jean-Luc Mélenchon – slightly more likely that Fillon developing a sense of shame but still unlikely – then he could be shut out of the second round entirely.

What does that all mean? As far as Britain is concerned, a Macron or Fillon presidency means the same thing: a French government that will not be keen on an easy exit for the UK and one that is considerably less anti-Russian than François Hollande’s. But the real disruption may be in the PR battle as far as who gets the blame if Theresa May muffs Brexit is concerned.

As I’ve written before, the PM doesn’t like to feed the beast as far as the British news cycle and the press is concerned. She hasn’t cultivated many friends in the press and much of the traditional rightwing echo chamber, from the press to big business, is hostile to her. While Labour is led from its leftmost flank, that doesn’t much matter. But if in the blame game for Brexit, May is facing against an attractive, international centrist who shares much of the prejudices of May’s British critics, the hope that the blame for a bad deal will be placed solely on the shoulders of the EU27 may turn out to be a thin hope indeed.

Implausible? Don’t forget that people already think that Germany is led by a tough operator who gets what she wants, and think less of David Cameron for being regularly outmanoeuvered by her – at least, that’s how they see it. Don’t rule out difficulties for May if she is seen to be victim to the same thing from a resurgent France.

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. His daily briefing, Morning Call, provides a quick and essential guide to British politics.