Boom in the gloom for capital goods

Amidst stagnation, there's one ray of hope

Up on the month and still down on the year. Today’s UK production figures (from the ONS) can be taken either way. Stagnation after a brief and half-hearted recovery really does seem to be the conclusion as manufacturing output has seen three month on month rises in the last six months, and three falls. Total production output has been weaker than manufacturing (two-thirds of the total) for months due to the dismal performance from the North Sea but the annual decline in May is, at least, the least negative since September last year.

UK Index of Production from Timetric

The striking trend in the last couple of years has been the rise in the output of capital goods. The reason for this strength is not entirely clear other than to make the relative comparison, namely to point to the well-known weaknesses in consumer demand and mining (mainly North Sea oil) output. Until one of those two sectors picks up, there is little chance of a real recovery.

UK Index of Production from Timetric

Manufatcuring output is divided into a number of components. The chart below shows the strongest and weakest of the 13 sub-sectors in the recovery phase, post-2008. Output of transport, electrical and other equipment has grown strongly while wood, computing and basic pharmaceuticals have experienced no recovery at all.

Originally posted at Timetric.com

An oil rig. Energy is one of the flagging sectors. Photograph: Getty Images

Simon is the vice president (product) at Timetric

Matt Cardy/Getty Images
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What did Jeremy Corbyn really say about Bin Laden?

He's been critiqued for calling Bin Laden's death a "tragedy". But what did Jeremy Corbyn really say?

Jeremy Corbyn is under fire for describing Bin Laden’s death as a “tragedy” in the Sun, but what did the Labour leadership frontrunner really say?

In remarks made to Press TV, the state-backed Iranian broadcaster, the Islington North MP said:

“This was an assassination attempt, and is yet another tragedy, upon a tragedy, upon a tragedy. The World Trade Center was a tragedy, the attack on Afghanistan was a tragedy, the war in Iraq was a tragedy. Tens of thousands of people have died.”

He also added that it was his preference that Osama Bin Laden be put on trial, a view shared by, among other people, Barack Obama and Boris Johnson.

Although Andy Burnham, one of Corbyn’s rivals for the leadership, will later today claim that “there is everything to play for” in the contest, with “tens of thousands still to vote”, the row is unlikely to harm Corbyn’s chances of becoming Labour leader. 

Stephen Bush is editor of the Staggers, the New Statesman’s political blog.