Opinionomics | 14 May 2012

Must-read comment and analysis, featuring pasty-tax funded investment and much Eurocrisis.

1. As European Austerity Ends, So Could the Euro (Bloomberg View)

The euro currency is a malady that condemns at least a generation of Greeks, Italians, Spaniards, Portuguese and Irish to the economic infirmary, writes Peter Boone and Simon Johnson

2. The pasty tax could pay for a £30 billion infrastructure programme: four charts show why history will judge us harshly (Not the Treasury View)

Jonathan Portes writes that a £30bn infrastructure programme would cost just £150m a year, thanks to historically low gilt yields: that is the revenue raised by the pasty tax.

3. What history tells us about a potential Greek exit (Pragmatic Capitalism)

David Schawel asks what an exit from the euro would look like, and how it would be accomplished.

4. The recession deniers have gone strangely quiet this month (The Independent)

We are in the slowest recovery for a century, with no end in sight, writes David Blanchflower

5. World edges closer to deflationary slump as money contracts in China (Telegraph)

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard argues that more and more signifiers point to depression hitting not just the developed world but the BRICS as well - and China could be the first to go.

Greek President Carolos Papoulias holds a newspaper in his office in Athens. Photograph: Getty Images

Alex Hern is a technology reporter for the Guardian. He was formerly staff writer at the New Statesman. You should follow Alex on Twitter.

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How Theresa May laid a trap for herself on the immigration target

When Home Secretary, she insisted on keeping foreign students in the figures – causing a headache for herself today.

When Home Secretary, Theresa May insisted that foreign students should continue to be counted in the overall immigration figures. Some cabinet colleagues, including then Business Secretary Vince Cable and Chancellor George Osborne wanted to reverse this. It was economically illiterate. Current ministers, like the Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson, Chancellor Philip Hammond and Home Secretary Amber Rudd, also want foreign students exempted from the total.

David Cameron’s government aimed to cut immigration figures – including overseas students in that aim meant trying to limit one of the UK’s crucial financial resources. They are worth £25bn to the UK economy, and their fees make up 14 per cent of total university income. And the impact is not just financial – welcoming foreign students is diplomatically and culturally key to Britain’s reputation and its relationship with the rest of the world too. Even more important now Brexit is on its way.

But they stayed in the figures – a situation that, along with counterproductive visa restrictions also introduced by May’s old department, put a lot of foreign students off studying here. For example, there has been a 44 per cent decrease in the number of Indian students coming to Britain to study in the last five years.

Now May’s stubbornness on the migration figures appears to have caught up with her. The Times has revealed that the Prime Minister is ready to “soften her longstanding opposition to taking foreign students out of immigration totals”. It reports that she will offer to change the way the numbers are calculated.

Why the u-turn? No 10 says the concession is to ensure the Higher and Research Bill, key university legislation, can pass due to a Lords amendment urging the government not to count students as “long-term migrants” for “public policy purposes”.

But it will also be a factor in May’s manifesto pledge (and continuation of Cameron’s promise) to cut immigration to the “tens of thousands”. Until today, ministers had been unclear about whether this would be in the manifesto.

Now her u-turn on student figures is being seized upon by opposition parties as “massaging” the migration figures to meet her target. An accusation for which May only has herself, and her steadfast politicising of immigration, to blame.

Anoosh Chakelian is senior writer at the New Statesman.

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