Inastew, are you saying we haven't got an inflation problem, are you the only person on the planet to think so?

A sizeable chunk of government debt is index-linked, are you sure you understand the concept of " index-linked "

More job losses are a double edged swords less revenues and more sweet sweet welfare spending.

What Labour policy are you droning on about?

The right criticised QE Inastew, now they are changing their tune because Osborne had to acknowledge, the economy was tanking.

the obscene build up of debt by the west during the last decade will take atleast another decade to unwind old boy.

we need long term strategies where look at what we will sell in the global markets of the future, not short term quarter by quarter analysis.

also we need to put in place structures so that we never again run up debts during a boom - all politicans are guilty so let's do it - start putting in arrangements so that we start to run budget surplus when we approach trend growth rates let's say above 1.5-1.75 range.

Then when the bad time arrive spend the war chest on infrastructure - the most useful sort of public spending - spend it on our energy generation capability, new airports and high speed railway, ultra high speed broadband - we could have all those goodies but we got alot of public sector waste and unnecessary spend on admin style roles.

Come on broomandmuster, you wanted an explanation of Inastew wacky ideas, don't start blaming me for agreeing with them.

I appreciate when you compare Brown and Blair inflation record to Mrs T/John Major, swinging with your chin is the only option left.

Monetarism is like aromatherapy, we have all heard about it, but no one really takes any notice of it.

matty hot air and no answers. here's another of your classics........

"RSD super lol Germany is heading into a double dip." LO very L germany look like it economy shrank by 0.25% in q4 2011. i suppose to osborne and these wotten tories..............

by the way matty QE is monetary policy, it increases the money supply, not that you'd know of course seeing as you are so thick.

also if you recall I showed you that inflation was lower in the period 92-97 than 199-2010. of course it was higher in 80's becuase they inheited extrreme high inflation from the madness of the 780's and battering price expectation out of an economy take time. know what a phillips curve is you ignorant twerp?

It must be a full moon, the haters are out in full force.

Gag one, no one saw the eurozone debt crisis. Oh yes they did Mike Thomas, you can't pretend to be George Osborne.

This issue has been bubbling since 2010.

Paul Krugman, a Nobel Economic Prize winner, talked about the problem in 2010.

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/business/jan-june10/greece3_05-06.html

@matt

typo. keys are next to each other. should be "1 year ago"

e.g. Blackbuster

Think Gordon. Think Goldrun.

RSD super lol Germany is heading into a double dip.

Osborne has stood aside whilst the eurozone crisis has developed, what is his solution to the eurozone crisis?

First we had the snow, then the royal wedding, now it is the Eurozone, excuse after excuse from the Right.

@matt

Job losses from the public sector reduces the deficit. Job losses from businesses due to government cutting funding reduces the deficit (e.g. Logica). Unemployment subdues the labor market together with inflation over time makes people more competitive so they eventually price themselves into a job. Your point is? Demand can be back filled through stratgic investment which has an economic return e.g. investment in renewable energy.

The debt is held largely by insurers and pension funds so index linking lowers the risk of investors in the UK. Your point is?

The right critised QE as a means of back door borrowing to inflate the economy to win votes which was Labour's Plan A. But after the short term vote winning stimulus has passed, QE has medicinal properties of creating inflation and devaluing the currency which have long term benefits to the UK in combination with the subdued labor market.

I think its a solution which will work for the UK's problems and get you a job although it needs tough action and everyone to be realistic about wages. More than Labour is capable of implementing.

In terms of UK growth Blachflower's prediction was the most accurate. Credit for that, but the amusing thing is that David is a labour market economist but his growth forecasts are nearly always more accurate than his unemployment forecasts.

I personally thought the economy will grow at 1-1.5% at the start of 2011 but looks like Blanchflower will just be right with below 1% (likely to be 0.8%).

Agree with the double-dip forecast too and predicted the same myself on earlier threads. The economy should recover strongly in the second half though & post about 1% growth overall.

Disagree though that Osborne is to blame, most European countries are heading for a double dip even Germany, this isn't unique to the UK.

@matt

With the Euro at a 16 month low, exports from the UK will be hit (I see you are rubbing your hands in glee). It means more unemployment and more downward pressure on incomes and internal prices. Eventually UK people will price themselves into a job. Thats why we need inflation coupled with a depressed Labor market for a few year more to accelerate the process and get it over and done with.

"Failed monetarism". Er what are you on about? Have you been drinking? I've said I support QE to stimulate inflation not shrink the money supply. Or is it you dont know what monetarism is? I'm anti low inflation until the economy is rebalanced.

There are several aspects to supply side e.g. I'm interested in competitiveness of people -- reducing the cost of skills relative to capital. It will attract inward investment and create jobs. It will also help make good cheaper so we sell more.

Matthew Fox,

Nice try, an obscure PBS interview on Greece's sovereign debt is hardly the conviction that Mr. Krugman is famous for is it?

Also, I notice you ignore the other points I make too. This is a fiscal crisis on the back of fiscal stimulus losing the confidence of the markets.

Which is the exact same policy Danny has been advocating. Hike up government spending and hang the consequences.

Except, Laurie, it is possible to have growth AND equality. It is understandable that the beneficiaries of capitalism should have such a blindspot - why do you?

What a silly article from a silly man. No solutions offered...mmm wait let me guess what his solution would be...spend more money? Ah yes that would solve everything. Of course, how silly we all are. Let's all join Danny in his make believe world where money never runs out and we can spend forever. Hoorah!

A manifesto Inastew, more like a recipe for economic ruin.

You will never learn.

I see broomandmuster has surfaced.

He does stupid very well as a matter of fact.

His dim-witted amigo has advocated the depreciation of sterling, which would increase inflation, as well as a 5% Vat increase, which again would be calculated into the Vat figures.

I see Inastew can't defend Mrs T and Major inflation record, Broomandmuster failed miserable less time.

Big C
Called it too soon my friend. Looks awfully like the UK entered recession in Q42011 as growth will also probably be negative in Q12012. Unemployment is rising again and this incompetent coalition government still has no growth plan.

I take no pleasure in being right in my predictions that Osborne's austerity programme and his talking down of the UK economy would prove disastrous. And so it has turned out

Danny Blanchflower

Laurie,

Presumably if absolute growth absolute growth trumps equality every time, on your analysis it would be better still if production was even higher and the owner of the pie making machine owned all the pies and paid the others the minimum amount of pie required to sustain them as workers in the pie factory, thereby maximising his surplus available to reinvest.

Two problems with this.
One: you might reasonably think that having one person forcing down his tenth pie while others go hungry might not be an efficient allocation of resources if the aim of the system is to maximise human well being. It might also have some generally unpleasant social effects. It might even be considered immoral by some beardy-weirdy people.

Two: What’s the point of the rich guy reinvesting his spare pie when no-one else has any spare income to buy the extra pies that would be created?

Broomandfluster, sorry, I am not as stupid as you are.

Check Wikipedia, Mrs Thatcher was PM between 1979 and 1990, John Major was PM between 1990 and 1997, so trying fiddle the figures isn't a bright idea.

Are you that thick, you are comparing 5 years again 13 years, that seems pretty desperate?

Why don't you be honest for once and admit Blair and Brown had a far superior record in tackling inflation to Mrs T and John Major.

Inherited inflation for a decade, how does that work?

I see QE is monetary policy is it, strange how George Osborne has two different views on QE.

Osborne 2009 " Last Resort of Desperate Governments "

Osborne 2011 " The Right measure to take to help the British economy "

I think you need to increase the air supply to your tiny brain.

I am rubbing my hands with glee at your stupidity Inastew.

The euro will only add to our woes, more private sector unemployment.

Yes failed monetarism, the policy that doubled budget deficits under Reagan and Bush 1 & 2.

Ross Perot coined the phrase " Voodoo Economics "

Part of our inflation problem is self inflicted, the VAT increase saw to that.

But don't forget, with you wanting to depreciated sterling, it would add to the inflation problem.

You are interested in being a fool Inastew.

Laurie: I don't know if you've been away in another dimension or not, but 2011 bore witness to the failure of capitalism. It does not work and is unsustainable. 'Growth' is artificial, especially in an economic climate where it is impossible. We need to move away from a demand-led economy where everyone is effectively chasing their own tail. What we move to is, howeever, something I am not sure of since I am not an economist. One thing that is for sure, however, is that the current economic model is a disaster.

matty if you want to talk about inflation records go find out the inflation records under lp between 1974 and 1979 you vacuous idiot. please go find out i'd love to know it, then compare to subsequent administrations who had to clean up the mess with this incredible idea called monetarism. bet you don't as it won't suit your mindless fact fitting. chances the fat head does this are zilch everyone.

@matt

Agreed. Labour's last manifesto is more like a recipe for economic ruin.

But you are well well behind the curve on Labour economic policy development - they are turning Tory because they know they will go extict otherwise. After all their methodology is "if it looks like a bandwagon then jump on it".

Do you know what Bob Holness and Gordon have in common? They both had a blackbuster goldrun.

Nature needs to run its course and the economy need to adjust its new lower level. It takes account of BRIC, the shift of world economic activity, change of financial services activity etc.

The Plan B brigade dont get it. We cant sustainably raise the economy above its natural level through borrowing. Only supply side improvement can do that (including stratgic investment as one measure).

Oh dear, now ive mentioned supply side so must be a Tory troll.

indu: You are right. Forget Europe and the UK. Look at China and India. If you're interested in economics then you need to concentrate on Asia. It's a numbers game and a half.

Anyone with any sense and money needs to be investing in Asia.

The OBR need to get out of the prediction game as well,totally undermining forecasting as we know it.

Cameron talked about heavy lifting in 2011, the dark days behind us, and I mean, he was nearly right BigC, nearly.