Growth must be the focus as the world economy slows
Andrew Sentance has a list of questions for Mervyn King. Here are my answers.
By David Blanchflower Published 02 November 2011 11:54
Andrew Sentance on his website has posed ten questions that he wants answered by Mervyn King. So I decided to answer them myself.
1. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) resisted arguments for a rise in interest rates in the second half of 2010 and earlier this year. And yet it has moved very quickly to mobilise more quantitative easing (QE) based on short-term worries about economic growth, despite the fact that inflation is now over 5 per cent. Is this not evidence that the MPC is targeting growth, not inflation?
I guess you never did realise that monetary policy can only impact inflation 18 months to two years ahead. As it is being driven by temporary factors and they are about to drop out, inflation is going to be below target at the forecast horizon. This would be even more obvious if the CPI included falling house prices. In any case, behavioural economics shows that people care much more about unemployment than they do about inflation.
2. The Bank's analysis of the original round of QE showed that it raised inflation. How can a new round of QE be justified when inflation is at 5.2 per cent, the highest rate we have seen since the early 1990s?
The Bank's analysis showed that it raised inflation, which was a good thing, because we were headed to deflation. A new round of QE is justified, because the economic data in the UK and especially in the eurozone is slowing. Perhaps you didn't notice.
3. MPC forecasts have seriously underestimated inflation since the onset of the financial crisis. How can the committee be so confident that inflation is set to fall below target when its previous forecasts have been so inaccurate?
You mean the forecasts that you signed up to? The MPC also was too optimistic about growth. All forecasts are based upon the data that there is to hand. If another shock comes along in either direction than all bets are off. How could the MPC be expected to forecast, say, a hurricane that disrupts oil production and then pushes up both oil prices and inflation?
4. The MPC has taken a decision to reactivate QE without the support of a quarterly forecast. How can the committee then assert so confidently that inflation will fall below the 2 per cent target without a further injection of QE, when it has not carried out a forecast exercise to support this judgement?
The shock to output is so large that they had to move. Contrary to what you claimed in a number of your speeches, growth was revised downwards, not up, which meant it was obvious that inflation was going to be well below the target. The Greek referendum means that risks are even greater to the downside. Every time, you have called it wrong, so you have no credibility, sorry.
5. Some economists have argued that QE will depress sterling and add to inflation directly through that route. Given that the weakness of sterling and rising import prices have added to UK inflation in the past 2/3 years, is this not a very legitimate concern?
You know very well that depreciation of the currency helps to increase stimulus in the economy, not least because it raises the cost of imported goods and thus encourages import substitution. This has been rather slow to happen to this point, because of the mistaken austerity programme that cuts too deep and too fast. What you're not acknowledging is that the alternative was for the economy to go over the cliff, which would create very high levels of unemployment. Economists have to consider the outcome for people across society.
6. The MPC minutes suggest that the committee believes that QE will be as effective in the current environment as in 2009. Yet a key channel of influence for QE is the downward impact on long-term interest rates, which are now much lower than in 2009. Does this not suggest MPC will now be less effective?
The MPC has performed its own Operation Twist with its new form of QE, which emphasises the long end of the curve. In contrast to the stock of data, a third of the purchases will be of 25 years duration and over compared with 11 per cent of the stock. The economy needs stimulus.
7. The first round of QE in 2009 probably boosted business and consumer confidence because the Bank of England appeared to be "pulling out all the stops" to stabilise the economy. Is there any evidence that the confidence effect of this current round of QE will be so positive, particularly when there are major worries about high inflation at present?
Maybe not, but that simply is an argument for doing a lot more QE, rather than less. Hence some economists' expectations that QE will move to at least £500bn. Doing nothing, as you seem to be proposing, would push the economy over the cliff.
8. If QE is effective, it brings forward future growth into the present. But that means growth may be weaker in the future -- and the governor acknowledged this problem in his Liverpool speech. Why does the Bank/MPC think that we will be better placed to cope with weaker growth in the future than now?
There is no evidence from anywhere that more growth now means less growth later -- look at China. In the case of Japan, less growth now means less growth later. The economy is subject to severe headwinds and if action hadn't been taken, inflation would be below the target and perhaps even negative
9. A big concern for the public and business is pensions. By depressing long-term investment returns, QE makes the pension funding problem more difficult. Has the MPC taken this into account in its decision on QE and how does it respond to these criticisms?
As Mervyn King said, raising rates now to help savers is nonsensical, as it would drive up unemployment and lower growth.
10. The broader public will find it hard to understand why the MPC has not taken any steps to counter high inflation and yet seems very ready to inject more stimulus, which might add to inflation over the longer term. Surely the actions of the MPC are undermining confidence in price stability and the inflation target?
I am afraid it is you that has confused the public, by claiming that interest rates should have been raised in the depths of a recession. Just think what would have happened to the economy if you had had your way -- mortgage payments would have risen, consumer spending and house prices would have fallen and unemployment would have risen and growth fallen. It is quite clear now that what you were arguing for was totally mistaken.
You failed to call the recession and wrongly suggested that the risk to the economy was inflation. The danger remains of deflation, not inflation. Note the statement made by the MPC when it moved to doing more QE.
The pace of global expansion has slackened, especially in the United Kingdom's main export markets. Vulnerabilities associated with the indebtedness of some euro-area sovereigns and banks have resulted in severe strains in bank funding markets and financial markets more generally. These tensions in the world economy threaten the UK recovery.
Note the scary word "threaten". Growth must be the focus right now, as the world economy slows.
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42 comments
"Wait a minute, I was under the impression low interest rates where propping up house prices."
That's correct Matt, you certainly "were" under the impression, see the figures out today along with the comments.
فساتين سهره 2013
فساتين روعة لصيف 2013
برودكاست صباح الخير
خلفيات ايفون شهر رمضان
توبيكات واتس اب 2013
عبارات واتس أب
برودكاست نوم 2012
رمزيات خلفيات بلاك بيري 2013
رمزيات واتس اب 2013
Wait a minute, I was under the impression low interest rates where propping up house prices.
Danny: You're back. Where have you been? HIYA Danny. Are you saying anything different this time around? Ya caught any fish mate?
VALUE should be the focus danny. Fuck growth. God you're so one dimensional. It's not how many fish it's the QUALITY OF THE FLESH. I'm going to have to lay a new lure for you.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zen_and_the_Art_of_Motorcycle_Maintenance
Do you actually read non-economic stuff? And I don't mean fishing mags.
It's a funny thing inflation. Intellectually, I can argue that the US needs to favour inflation (and be shouted at by angry Americans). Then I can argue that Europe BADLY needs more inflation in the core NOW (and be shouted at by angry Germans).
But when I apply it to my own country, I suddenly feel less convinced about the whole thing. Maybe the operative word there is "feel". Maybe you need to be somewhat of a citizen of the world, like DB, to see this dispassionately.
"How do you think you would solve the problem?"
It's more difficult now after the horse has bolted, but I wouldn't have had rates so low for sow long.
I'd have stricter lending criteria - we're slowly creeping back to 90-95% mortgages, and I think it's a bad idea to have our population growing so rapidly with such a housing shortage, and I would scrap these shared ownership schemes, maybe tax BTL more too. That would do for a start.
Hi Danny: My mum is on a cruise along the Eastern Canadian/US coast as we speak... I got a postcard from her today. Can you drive two snow mobiles at the same time? .. I always found that difficult with bicycles.
I saw a TV program on fishing in Japan and they showed a carp farm where a big fish cost about 75,000 quid! A group of rich Englishmen were there buying the carp. They had that kind of swagger of a rich self made men but they were all overweight. I was thinking they want a big carp to match their bellies. They've obviously got ponds at home to show them off. But I was thinking it would have been better for them to have smaller fish because they might self consciously be influenced by their pet. You know when people start looking like their dogs. These carp were about 7-10 feet long and I'm thinking these guys look and act like their pets.
I've got a couple of lean cats ... they keep me trim. Do you have a pet?
And Foxy.. try to talk some sense this time ... loads of people know you're the one with shit for brains.
Dont need selling on QE - causes inflation which with a subdued labor market is making the UK more competitive.
"Growth is the key to getting out of this mess"
No. Need to go one step up. Competitiveness is the key to getting out of this mess.
Growth without competitiveness = borrowing.
Oh Danny! OK I'm going to take my fishing rod around to his place! How ya goin mate? Caught any biggies?
Thanks for your response David.
However, reading the BoEs website:
http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetarypolicy/index.htm#
"One of the Bank of England's two core purposes is monetary stability. Monetary stability means stable prices - low inflation - and confidence in the currency. Stable prices are defined by the Government's inflation target, which the Bank seeks to meet through the decisions taken by the Monetary Policy Committee.
A principal objective of any central bank is to safeguard the value of the currency in terms of what it will purchase. Rising prices – inflation – reduces the value of money. Monetary policy is directed to achieving this objective and providing a framework for non-inflationary economic growth. As in most other developed countries, monetary policy usually operates in the UK through influencing the price at which money is lent – the interest rate. However, in March 2009 the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee announced that in addition to setting Bank Rate, it would start to inject money directly into the economy by purchasing assets - often known as quantitative easing. This means that the instrument of monetary policy shifts towards the quantity of money provided rather than the price at which the Bank lends or borrows money.
Low inflation is not an end in itself. It is however an important factor in helping to encourage long-term stability in the economy. Price stability is a precondition for achieving a wider economic goal of sustainable growth and employment. High inflation can be damaging to the functioning of the economy. Low inflation can help to foster sustainable long-term economic growth."
It is clear that the primary mandate is inflation, growth according to this explanation is only achieved through the BoE providing low inflation.
While I do not agree that the BoE should increase interest rates becuase it should have a dual mandate including unemployment like the Fed, if Sentence was employed to achieve the above mandate then he was correct in calling for interest rates to rise in 2010 if he expected inflation to rise in 2011.
RSD
you're right, but the man is allowed to use his brain as well surely- he has a narrowly defined mandate, but in a crisis shiould he not go beyond that?
Competitiveness could be improved without cutting living standards. But this can only be achieved by fiscal policy. Getting the unemployment rate through only monetary policy is causing high inflation and cutting peoples living standards.
For example if the government improved the UKs poor infrastructure and gave business more incentives to invest now, then capital per worker would rise, increasing output per worker. The increase in competitiveness would then allow more people to be employed.
www.strongtowns.org
its all about what the last 2 chats are about. Not left and right...
Thanks mike: what's wrong with shared 'ownership' schemes? What ones are you talking about?
@RSD,
But surely in this globalised world competitiveness out to be measured in relative terms, or to put it crudely, yes productivity can go up, but but if the wages per worker are still higher significantly than those overseas (increasingly the case even for the professions, and not just vocational workers), does that count as competitive?
So RSD you are saying the BoE should stick to a narrow mandate and the economy be damned?
@Matt
"Wait a minute, I was under the impression low interest rates where propping up house prices."
That's correct Matt, you certainly "were" under the impression, see the figures out today along with the comments.
Explain what would happen to house prices if rates return to just a neutral level? I see you haven't yet explained, despite being asked several times, funny that.
@Mr Divine
I don't pretend I have all the answers, but I have an opinion. The problem I have with shared ownership is that it's house price inflationary and they're becoming more widespread, there seems to be more and more initiatives every year. The very fact we have them shows that prices are too high.
If shared ownership becomes the normal way to buy a house it means house prices will potentially have a much higher ceiling. Schemes which are selective as to who can qualify are highly unfair as they give some people a leg up over others. I disagree with taxpayers money being used to help prop house prices up.
Are you still on about these house prices .. you sound like a broken record.. can't you think about something else? You're as one dimensional as Matt.
Don't you think VALUE should be the focus of government not growth? What I mean is government shouldn't just pour money into the economy but rather spend it on what people really need. It's not quantity .. it's quality.
Have you read that book ' Small is Beautiful' by Schumacher(?) I mean it's difficult to ride two BIG snow mobiles at the same time .. one small one is better .. you can avoid the thin ice easier.
well said Indu
@Mr Divine
"Are you still on about these house prices"
Yes, they're at the root of a lot of our social and economic problems. I don't see what's wrong with wanting more affordable housing.
"Don't you think VALUE should be the focus of government not growth?"
Yes, I don't know what I've posted which would make you think otherwise. I'm against QE and the whole bailiing out of reckless behaviour.
Seem to remember the BoE mandate was about trying to get on top of sick man UK's history of labor inflation and monetary and fiscal mismanagement.
If so the BoE look to be doing the right thing by ignoring the rules a bit. They are getting away with it because there is underlying political support.
Who cares what Sentance says? He's merely obsessed with inflation and not the wider issue of where the economy is going.
What is even more alarming is that the economic consensus here, there and everywhere, believes that expansionary austerity (despite the lessons of the Great Depression and Japan in 1990s) is the way forward.
When we are all once again in recession, what are these people going to recommend as the correct response to this crisis? 10 years of austerity, unemployment and misery?
Our leaders and the economists who inform them just don't get it. They ignore history and are casual in their belief that the polis will pay the price.
It is miserably bankrupt moral, economic and political system that raises itself and its interests above, logic, history and well-being of its own people.
Growth? Like a tumour?
Yes I agree with you Mike. Housing is a very important issue but trying to lay blame on who was responsible and why it happened isn't going to solve the problem. It isn't a Tory/Labour thing. It is an issue that needs to be solved in a way that has the most value for the people of the area. you can't have reckless private enterprise and you can't have government just uilding houses and giving to people. You have to think of a compromise and the first port of call needs to be 'VALUE'. that NEDS TO BE THE FOCUS. Focusing on growth you have all sorts of rubbish being built. Quality should be the focus. Does everyone want to get super fat?
Like it or not Sentence's prediction that inflation would overshoot in 2011 which caused him to vote for higher rates in 2010 was correct.
Inflation is now at 5.2% even stripping out the effects of indirect taxation it is well above the BoE target.
BoE is an inflation targetting Central Bank. Unlike the Fed it does not have a dual mandate which permits it to sacrifice inflation to get growth.
With average earnings growth stuck at 2-3% high inflation is eroding living standards at the fastest rate in 30 years. The vast majority of people are in work, so care about their falling real wages more than unemployment.
RSD
Raising rates right now would be suicidal for the UK economy. Inflation is eroding living standards not least because Osborne raised VAT. But raising rates would kill home owners who have been able to protect themselves from inflation by the fall in the cost of their mortgage payment. Raising rates to control inflation would raise these payments and consumption and house prices would collapse further.
The CPI would be a lot lower if it included falling house prices. Oil and commodity prices have fallen and inflation is going to fall - it is transitory.
The MP is following its remit as is not simply an inflation targeter - it is allowed in its remit to slow the speed at which inflation is puled back to target if that would impact growth and unemployment
Behavioural economics shows that people care more about unemployment than they do about inflation.
We are in a once in a hundred years shock and the big mistake was to believe it was an ordinary shock and that it was fine to tighten early. Big mistake it turns out - exactly as happened in the US in 1937.
Danny Blanchflower
@Mr Divine
"Housing is a very important issue but trying to lay blame on who was responsible and why it happened isn't going to solve the problem. It isn't a Tory/Labour thing"
I don't support any party, I'm not here to take shots at Labour or anyone else, I simply argue against policies which help prop house prices up and also that we learn the lessons of the past. Seems to me like not a lot has been learned so far.
Mr. Blanchflower,
I salute you.
There should be a full stop after Sentance. For all our sakes.
@RSD
'Like it or not Sentence's (sic) prediction .....
Doh. That was about the only thing he did get right. And that wasn't a hard call.
Growth is the key to getting out of this mess - unfortunately Dave Dee Dozy Beaky Mick and Titch don't have a clue how to go about it.
Mr Divine is back, it looks like Care in the Community has been reactivated.
How do you think you would solve the problem?
I can see a couple of big dogs, golden retrivers, labbies or even huskies. Good to cuddle up to when you're fishing out on the ice.
Did AS pinch your tuck at school David? You're right and he's wrong but these attacks are remarkably personal.
I agree with you Indu, but here's a question, do you think competitiveness can be achieved in the UK while current living standards are maintained?
OK Danny it is not working then.
------------------
All forecasts are based upon the data that there is to hand. If another shock comes along in either direction than all bets are off. How could the MPC be expected to forecast, say, a hurricane that disrupts oil production and then pushes up both oil prices and inflation?
----------------
Hmmm are we therefore not better following Taleb instead of Economics Fraudsters?
On another note, India and China and rest of the world are pulling the inflation high and not tiny Britain.
I can under-stand Americans thinking the world begins and ends at themselves, but if some Economist thinks that about Britain, it could only be a socialist.
On the house prices front, falling house prices would be welcomed by many, they are still very high. Keeping them high is in few peoples interest.
People with mortgages have had lots of help already, rates are very low. Sensible people will have budgeted for a much higher base rate than 0.5%.
Mr Divine
Actually this is economic season. The cold has come to the North East and the loons have left and they are lowering the water levels in the lakes because the ice is coming. But no worry it's ice fishing soon and I am getting my snow machines ready. The ski areas try to open at thanksgiving.
Glad you asked
Danny Blanchflower