Let's help Dave get his facts straight

Two more thoughts following yesterday's awful joblessness figures.

A couple of points. Some have claimed that the UK private sector created half a million jobs over the past 12 months -- including, apparently, the Prime Minister at PMQs yesterday.

So let's help Dave get his facts straight. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) only provides data on employment in the public and private sector every three months and the latest data is only available up until June 2011. Over the 12 months to June 2011, private-sector employment grew by 264,000, while public-sector employment fell by 240,000.

Notably, the ONS also produces estimates of what happened to employment since then. Over the three month period between June and August 2011, employment fell by a further 178,000. It will be interesting to see the mix between public- and private-sector job losses in due course. This coalition is destroying jobs, not creating them.

Second, my friend Adam Posen set out very clearly in his recent speech the arguments for assisting small and medium-size businesses in obtaining lending. I am pleased that the Chancellor is looking into possible ways that the Treasury can implement this plan. The concern is that little preparation has been done, which means that any scheme is likely to take a really long time to have any impact. The big rise in unemployment announced yesterday makes this all the more urgent.

Data reported by the European Commission this week suggests that the situation in the UK is much more serious than in almost any other country in Europe. The table below shows how the proportion of unsuccessful loan applications by SMEs (small and medium-sized enterprises) has changed over time. Loan denials have risen in every country with the economic crisis.

 

A scary thought: the proportion of loan denials is especially high in the UK, and higher than in all other major western countries other than the Netherlands. The concern is that this Chancellor, once again, is doing too little, too late.

So, when will loans to SMEs start to improve? My suspicion is not for a very long time and this will slow growth further.

David Blanchflower is economics editor of the New Statesman and professor of economics at Dartmouth College, New Hampshire

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What happened when a couple accidentally recorded two hours of their life

The cassette tape threw Dan and Fiona into a terrible panic.

If the Transformers series of movies (Transformers; Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen; Transformers: Dark of the Moon; Transformers: Age of Extinction; and Transformers: the Last Knight) teach us anything, it is that you think your life is going along just fine but in a moment, with a single mistake or incident, it can be derailed and you never know from what direction the threat will come. Shia LaBeouf, for example, thinks everything is completely OK in his world – then he discovers his car is a shape-shifting alien.

I once knew a couple called Dan and Fiona who, on an evening in the early 1980s, accidentally recorded two hours of their life. Fiona was an English teacher (in fact we’d met at teacher-training college) and she wished to make a recording of a play that was being broadcast on Radio 4 about an anorexic teenager living on a council estate in Belfast. A lot of the dramas at that time were about anorexic teenagers living on council estates in Belfast, or something very similar – sometimes they had cancer.

Fiona planned to get her class to listen to the play and then they would have a discussion about its themes. In that pre-internet age when there was no iPlayer, the only practical way to hear something after the time it had been transmitted was to record the programme onto a cassette tape.

So Fiona got out their boom box (a portable Sony stereo player), loaded in a C120 tape, switched on the radio part of the machine, tuned it to Radio 4, pushed the record button when the play began, and fastidiously turned the tape over after 60 minutes.

But instead of pushing the button that would have taped the play, she had actually pushed the button that activated the built-in microphone, and the machine captured, not the radio drama, but the sound of 120 minutes of her and Dan’s home life, which consisted solely of: “Want a cup of tea?” “No thanks.” And a muffled fart while she was out of the room. That was all. That was it.

The two of them had, until that moment, thought their life together was perfectly happy, but the tape proved them conclusively wrong. No couple who spent their evenings in such torpidity could possibly be happy. Theirs was clearly a life of grinding tedium.

The evidence of the cassette tape threw Dan and Fiona into a terrible panic: the idea of spending any more of their evenings in such bored silence was intolerable. They feared they might have to split up. Except they didn’t want to.

But what could they do to make their lives more exciting? Should they begin conducting sordid affairs in sleazy nightclubs? Maybe they could take up arcane hobbies such as musketry, baking terrible cakes and entering them in competitions, or building models of Victorian prisons out of balsa wood? Might they become active in some kind of extremist politics?

All that sounded like a tremendous amount of effort. In the end they got themselves a cat and talked about that instead. 

This article first appeared in the 20 July 2017 issue of the New Statesman, The new world disorder