Let's help Dave get his facts straight

Two more thoughts following yesterday's awful joblessness figures.

A couple of points. Some have claimed that the UK private sector created half a million jobs over the past 12 months -- including, apparently, the Prime Minister at PMQs yesterday.

So let's help Dave get his facts straight. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) only provides data on employment in the public and private sector every three months and the latest data is only available up until June 2011. Over the 12 months to June 2011, private-sector employment grew by 264,000, while public-sector employment fell by 240,000.

Notably, the ONS also produces estimates of what happened to employment since then. Over the three month period between June and August 2011, employment fell by a further 178,000. It will be interesting to see the mix between public- and private-sector job losses in due course. This coalition is destroying jobs, not creating them.

Second, my friend Adam Posen set out very clearly in his recent speech the arguments for assisting small and medium-size businesses in obtaining lending. I am pleased that the Chancellor is looking into possible ways that the Treasury can implement this plan. The concern is that little preparation has been done, which means that any scheme is likely to take a really long time to have any impact. The big rise in unemployment announced yesterday makes this all the more urgent.

Data reported by the European Commission this week suggests that the situation in the UK is much more serious than in almost any other country in Europe. The table below shows how the proportion of unsuccessful loan applications by SMEs (small and medium-sized enterprises) has changed over time. Loan denials have risen in every country with the economic crisis.

 

A scary thought: the proportion of loan denials is especially high in the UK, and higher than in all other major western countries other than the Netherlands. The concern is that this Chancellor, once again, is doing too little, too late.

So, when will loans to SMEs start to improve? My suspicion is not for a very long time and this will slow growth further.

David Blanchflower is economics editor of the New Statesman and professor of economics at Dartmouth College, New Hampshire

Garry Knight via Creative Commons
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Why Barack Obama was right to release Chelsea Manning

A Presidential act of mercy is good for Manning, but also for the US.

In early 2010, a young US military intelligence analyst on an army base near Baghdad slipped a Lady Gaga CD into a computer and sang along to the music. In fact, the soldier's apparently upbeat mood hid two facts. 

First, the soldier later known as Chelsea Manning was completely alienated from army culture, and the callous way she believed it treated civilians in Iraq. And second, she was quietly erasing the music on her CDs and replacing it with files holding explosive military data, which she would release to the world via Wikileaks. 

To some, Manning is a free speech hero. To others, she is a traitor. President Barack Obama’s decision to commute her 35-year sentence before leaving office has been blasted as “outrageous” by leading Republican Paul Ryan. Other Republican critics argue Obama is rewarding an act that endangered the lives of soldiers and intelligence operatives while giving ammunition to Russia. 

They have a point. Liberals banging the drum against Russia’s leak offensive during the US election cannot simultaneously argue leaks are inherently good. 

But even if you think Manning was deeply misguided in her use of Lady Gaga CDs, there are strong reasons why we should celebrate her release. 

1. She was not judged on the public interest

Manning was motivated by what she believed to be human rights abuses in Iraq, but her public interest defence has never been tested. 

The leaks were undoubtedly of public interest. As Manning said in the podcast she recorded with Amnesty International: “When we made mistakes, planning operations, innocent people died.” 

Thanks to Manning’s leak, we also know about the Vatican hiding sex abuse scandals in Ireland, plus the UK promising to protect US interests during the Chilcot Inquiry. 

In countries such as Germany, Canada and Denmark, whistle blowers in sensitive areas can use a public interest defence. In the US, however, such a defence does not exist – meaning it is impossible for Manning to legally argue her actions were in the public good. 

2. She was deemed worse than rapists and murderers

Her sentence was out of proportion to her crime. Compare her 35-year sentence to that received by William Millay, a young police officer, also in 2013. Caught in the act of trying to sell classified documents to someone he believed was a Russian intelligence officer, he was given 16 years

According to Amnesty International: “Manning’s sentence was much longer than other members of the military convicted of charges such as murder, rape and war crimes, as well as any others who were convicted of leaking classified materials to the public.”

3. Her time in jail was particularly miserable 

Manning’s conditions in jail do nothing to dispel the idea she has been treated extraordinarily harshly. When initially placed in solitary confinement, she needed permission to do anything in her cell, even walking around to exercise. 

When she requested treatment for her gender dysphoria, the military prison’s initial response was a blanket refusal – despite the fact many civilian prisons accept the idea that trans inmates are entitled to hormones. Manning has attempted suicide several times. She finally received permission to receive gender transition surgery in 2016 after a hunger strike

4. Julian Assange can stop acting like a martyr

Internationally, Manning’s continued incarceration was likely to do more harm than good. She has said she is sorry “for hurting the US”. Her worldwide following has turned her into an icon of US hypocrisy on free speech.

Then there's the fact Wikileaks said its founder Julian Assange would agree to be extradited to the US if Manning was released. Now that Manning is months away from freedom, his excuses for staying in the Equadorian London Embassy to avoid Swedish rape allegations are somewhat feebler.  

As for the President - under whose watch Manning was prosecuted - he may be leaving his office with his legacy in peril, but with one stroke of his pen, he has changed a life. Manning, now 29, could have expected to leave prison in her late 50s. Instead, she'll be free before her 30th birthday. And perhaps the Equadorian ambassador will finally get his room back. 

 

Julia Rampen is the editor of The Staggers, The New Statesman's online rolling politics blog. She was previously deputy editor at Mirror Money Online and has worked as a financial journalist for several trade magazines.