The bad economic news keeps flooding in

UK manufacturing output hits a 26-month low as growth forecasts are cut again.

The bad economic news keeps flooding in on a daily basis -- but there's still no response from George Osborne.

Manufacturing had been booming -- not least because of exports driven by the significant depreciation in the pound -- but that appears to be heading into reverse. Today's PMI for UK manufacturing fell to a 26-month low. Production fell for the first time since May 2009, as new order inflows declined at the most marked pace in almost two and a half years. The trend in new export business was also substantially weaker than just one month ago. Manufacturers linked the reduction to weak domestic demand, rising global economic uncertainty and lower levels of new export business.

Rob Dobson, senior economist at Markit, commenting on the data, argued: "The second half of 2011 has, so far, seen the UK manufacturing sector, once the pivotal cog in the economic recovery, switch into reverse gear . . . The sudden and substantial drop in new export orders is particularly worrisome, with UK manufacturers hit by rising global economic uncertainty, just as austerity measures are ramping up at home. As consumer and business confidence are slumping both at home and abroad, it is hard to see where any near-term improvement in demand will spring from."

Then, today, the British Chambers of Commerce cuts its growth forecast. They are now expecting GDP growth of 1.1 per cent in 2011 (down from 1.3 per cent) and 2.1 per cent in 2012 (down from 2.2 per cent), rising to 2.5 per cent in 2013. This is much less than the Office for Budget Responsibility, for example, which is forecasting 1.7 per cent in 2011 and 2.5 per cent in 2012.

This lowering of the growth forecast is consistent with evidence from Grant Thornton's UK Business Confidence Monitor for Q3 2011, conducted between 3 May and 29 July 2011, which showed that business confidence had fallen sharply. The confidence index stands at 8.1, down from 13.7 in Q2 2011 to its lowest level since Q3 2009.

The Confidence Index has been on a downward path since a post-recession bounce-back that started in late 2009 and peaked in the first half of 2010, just as this coalition government took office. Notably, the survey suggested that business confidence in the manufacturing and engineering sectors was "relatively downbeat" and continued to weaken.

And then there were some really daft comments from Andrew Sentance in an op-ed piece in the Wall Street Journal, in which he argued against further stimulus.

"The global economic recovery has been under way for about two years . . . Monetary policy needs to shift away from the emergency settings that were put in place to halt sharp falls in demand in late 2008 and 2009. The deflationary risks that were then a worry have now receded. Indeed, in some countries -- such as the UK -- persistent inflation is now the bigger worry . . . further stimulus of the demand side would be a move in the wrong direction. It may appear to offer the prospect of short-term respite from economic difficulties. But it will not help us secure the conditions for sustainable growth and lasting economic recovery." Yes it will.

Sentance couldn't be more wrong -- as data from the past few days has made clear, the global economy is slowing fast. It is now apparent that his votes for increasing interest rates at his last 12 meetings were completely misguided as growth plummets and unemployment rises. The UK now has a growth problem, rather than an inflation problem. Wrong on interest rates and wrong on austerity.

Ed Balls had it right today on the World at One: "If you adjust for the high oil prices [and] the fall in the exchange rate, underlying inflation in Britain today is very low indeed. That is reflected in long-term interest rates being very low. Why is that? Because our economy isn't growing . . . Manufacturing output is down and, all around the world in America, in Europe and in Britain, the challenge for central bankers is to do what they can with monetary policy to support growth and get things moving again. The trouble is, in the very unusual global situation we're in, it is hard for interest rates to do that job. That is why there is a challenge to fiscal policymakers to act, as well."

Now is the time for the coalition to act to stimulate growth.

David Blanchflower is economics editor of the New Statesman and professor of economics at Dartmouth College, New Hampshire

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If there’s no booze or naked women, what’s the point of being a footballer?

Peter Crouch came out with one of the wittiest football lines. When asked what he thought he would have been but for football, he replied: “A virgin.”

At a professional league ground near you, the following conversation will be taking place. After an excellent morning training session, in which the players all worked hard, and didn’t wind up the assistant coach they all hate, or cut the crotch out of the new trousers belonging to the reserve goalie, the captain or some senior player will go into the manager’s office.

“Hi, gaffer. Just thought I’d let you know that we’ve booked the Salvation Hall. They’ll leave the table-tennis tables in place, so we’ll probably have a few games, as it’s the players’ Christmas party, OK?”

“FECKING CHRISTMAS PARTY!? I TOLD YOU NO CHRISTMAS PARTIES THIS YEAR. NOT AFTER LAST YEAR. GERROUT . . .”

So the captain has to cancel the booking – which was actually at the Salvation Go Go Gentlemen’s Club on the high street, plus the Saucy Sporty Strippers, who specialise in naked table tennis.

One of the attractions for youths, when they dream of being a footballer or a pop star, is not just imagining themselves number one in the Prem or number one in the hit parade, but all the girls who’ll be clambering for them. Young, thrusting politicians have similar fantasies. Alas, it doesn’t always work out.

Today, we have all these foreign managers and foreign players coming here, not pinching our women (they’re too busy for that), but bringing foreign customs about diet and drink and no sex at half-time. Rotters, ruining the simple pleasures of our brave British lads which they’ve enjoyed for over a century.

The tabloids recently went all pious when poor old Wayne Rooney was seen standing around drinking till the early hours at the England team hotel after their win over Scotland. He’d apparently been invited to a wedding that happened to be going on there. What I can’t understand is: why join a wedding party for total strangers? Nothing more boring than someone else’s wedding. Why didn’t he stay in the bar and get smashed?

Even odder was the behaviour of two other England stars, Adam Lallana and Jordan Henderson. They made a 220-mile round trip from their hotel in Hertfordshire to visit a strip club, For Your Eyes Only, in Bournemouth. Bournemouth! Don’t they have naked women in Herts? I thought one of the points of having all these millions – and a vast office staff employed by your agent – is that anything you want gets fixed for you. Why couldn’t dancing girls have been shuttled into another hotel down the road? Or even to the lads’ own hotel, dressed as French maids?

In the years when I travelled with the Spurs team, it was quite common in provincial towns, after a Saturday game, for players to pick up girls at a local club and share them out.

Like top pop stars, top clubs have fixers who can sort out most problems, and pleasures, as well as smart solicitors and willing police superintendents to clear up the mess afterwards.

The England players had a night off, so they weren’t breaking any rules, even though they were going to play Spain 48 hours later. It sounds like off-the-cuff, spontaneous, home-made fun. In Wayne’s case, he probably thought he was doing good, being approachable, as England captain.

Quite why the other two went to Bournemouth was eventually revealed by one of the tabloids. It is Lallana’s home town. He obviously said to Jordan Henderson, “Hey Hendo, I know a cool club. They always look after me. Quick, jump into my Bentley . . .”

They spent only two hours at the club. Henderson drank water. Lallana had a beer. Don’t call that much of a night out.

In the days of Jimmy Greaves, Tony Adams, Roy Keane, or Gazza in his pomp, they’d have been paralytic. It was common for players to arrive for training still drunk, not having been to bed.

Peter Crouch, the former England player, 6ft 7in, now on the fringes at Stoke, came out with one of the wittiest football lines. When asked what he thought he would have been but for football, he replied: “A virgin.”

Hunter Davies is a journalist, broadcaster and profilic author perhaps best known for writing about the Beatles. He is an ardent Tottenham fan and writes a regular column on football for the New Statesman.

This article first appeared in the 01 December 2016 issue of the New Statesman, Age of outrage