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I see, I am setting myself up now, another smokescreen.

Considering you have made it a point never to retract any of your numerous incorrect statements, your definitely the last person to point a finger Bozo555.

According to Bozo555, house prices rose in May 2011, which in effect, he pre-empted house prices for 2011.

If he get's five minutes, he should swing by the Land Registry website. They have listed house prices as declining in May 2011, by 0.4% and at an annual rate of 2.2%.

@Matt

"Strange how Bozo555 keeping the Thatcher housing boom, the £400 Billion National debt circa 1997, and the £300 Billions of North Sea Oil Revenues that where wasted 1979-1997."

I've lost count how many times I've answered that point, everyone can see that I have. Why you continue with it is very strange.

"If I didn't correct my mistake, he would only goad me over it."

When people give out so much criticism they set themselves up for some when they make mistakes.

"Contrary to the false claims of Cameron, Osborne and Clegg, the UK economy was never close to bankruptcy and the previous Labour government was not responsible for the global financial crisis. As I have made clear many times, the UK is not Greece, Botswana or Paraguay. This utterly false and dangerous talk caused consumer confidence to collapse even before austerity hits, and I lay the blame for that squarely at senior members of the ConDem government's door."

Pretty much in line with what people on the Hight Street tell me.

Indu Pendant keeps talking about before 2008. was letting the banks fail an option?

no one

Osborne and Cameron have been singing the praises of manufacturing growth recently yet data out today shows manufacturing growth at a 21 month low for the UK whilst China is at a 28 month low and the Eurozone is at an 18 month low.

It will be interesting to see the growth figures for this quarter later this month and I would like to know how the construction industry is doing at the moment considering it's falls for the past two quarters.

"...more than 100 per cent of the current measured inflation in the UK..."

Lol. Only an economist could write nonsense as truly nonsensical as this. This Blanchflower seems to be a master at it, better even than fellow print-and-spendaholics, Hutton, Balls and, of course, our old friend Mr "O% rise" Brown.

Where the heck is "Capital Hill"?

'Right-wing bloggers, it seems, want to push the UK economy into a second Great Depression.'

It is truly terrifying to think somebody this ignorant of history is a lecturer in economics, and even more concerning that he feels competent to comment on economic history. Nobody is advocating that we enter the Second Great Depression. That would be actually impossible - on account of the fact that we have already had it.

It began with the Wall Street Crash in 1929 and came to a hesitant and uncertain end in about 1938 as everyone went on an arms buying spree.

I know that most people forget about the First Great Depression of 1880 to 1903. But Blanchflower claims to be intelligent, knowledgeable about economics, and free to pontificate to us hoi polloi about them. So he really should try to get his facts right.

He could then start a proper, informed and potentially useful discussion of how successful his proposals were in 1930s America, next to a comparison of Chamberlain's - although the results might rather surprise him.

The bloggers are not alone in this -they are merely reading off the same sheet as the ECB, IMF, BIS, OECD and most European governments.

How you get growth from austerity, socialising debt and very high levels of unemployment is a mystery - but not to them. You'll will get growth eventually - but it will be from a much lower base, smaller in scope and with high and sustained levels of unemployment (which, of course, will impede it). It's idiocy.

It's just a neo-con agenda to diminish the role of the state. They believe in magic growth fairies in defiance of the evidence.

Paul Krugman (New York Times) had a very good chart on the respective levels of income growth under Carter, Reagan, Bush 1, Clinton and Bush 2 - it made a nonsense of claims that lower taxes (on the wealthy and corporations) equal higher growth as both the Clinton and Carter administrations (which taxed more) out-performed the others by some margin (in the Clinton case - by over double).

It's all ideology and hang the rest. It's just crass.

In any case , don't the Land Reg figures lag behind the other indices due the the nature of the way they're collated? Or shall we not mention that Matt?

@Matt

I presume this is my quote you're basing your comment on?:

"Plus, weren't the last months house price stats all pointing up?"

I think you'll find that was a question rather than a statement. It's a shame for other readers we have to go through this sort of pathetic drivel so often, but while you continue to ridicule my posts, so be it.

Nice to see the uneducated Tory Trolls are in force in the comments section of a DAvid Blanchflower blog again.

Do CPHQ send out a text when David posts a new blog?

Uneducated, Spiteful and plain Wrong Tory Trolls.

Go on then Greg, do a detailed debunking and back up your claims.

The main reason we have this global credit crunch is because people like Blanchflower kept rates too low while everything was booming. Now he wants to keep rates low again to bail out the people that borrowed too much. Does he ever learn?

15% house price falls are nothing, they're still triple the price they were before the boom.

The BoE's 2% inflation target is a laughing stock. I bet the MPC has a great laugh every month.

Good post, but your defence of the U.S. stimulus is lacking.

A far more substantive defence of ti would be the following:

a) It was too small and ineffectively targeted.
b) State budgets had to shrink and the same time, offsetting it almost completely.

http://streetlightblog.blogspot.com/2011/05/feel-stimulus.html

http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/4707

c) Most importantly: the financial sector - particularly in the U.S. - is parasitic. It will suck many of the growth gains out (or at least the job gains). Until they sort that out, stimulus won't work very well.

@Matt

So that's no incorrect statements so far. I wonder if you will do the decent thing and apologize?

What a thoroughly cogent point you make, Robert. 'Liebore'. Brilliant, droll, and original. Are you Kelvin McKenzie in disguise?

More to the actual point is that the coalition government is behaving like a steroid & cocaine addled version of the Blair years, acting with no inhibition and only u-turning on issues prior designated to make them appear to be listening to the people (e.g., forestry sell off, allotments, parts of the NHS bill)just as the Blair years were Thatcherism wrapped in cotton wool. For every positive Labour achieved (minimum wage, sure start) came one or more equal or worse negatives. PFI and Iraq being two of the most immensely ineffective and costly, and yet the push in these directions continues.

There is no positive direction with this government and lying is even more of a symptom of the present regime than the last, yet we're just over a year into it. The general public are not fully aware (perhaps only partially at that) of how severe the cuts are going to be in their effects in two/two and a half years. Combine that with growing inflation problems world wide (China's being closer to 20% than the reported 5% and a massive debt problem that will make Greece look like Sunderland in comparison) and our lack of inner investment and cuts in the wrong areas, well, the future looks bleak.

"How do they know what might have been? This amounts to an argument about how the economy would have performed without the stimulus -- what economists call the counterfactual."

Alright when you do it though, isn't it?

"This utterly false and dangerous talk caused consumer confidence to collapse even before austerity hits, and I lay the blame for that squarely at senior members of the ConDem government's door."

Again, alright when you do it though isn't it?

FAIL

Mike555
I know you really worry a lot about house prices being too high and thus pricing young people especially from buying a home

We clearly need to build more houses but
1. Falling house prices tend to be correlated with falling consumption

2. Falling house prices would put lots more people into negative equity which would be toxic for the banks at a time when real incomes are falling

3. Letting house prices fall fast would further undermine confidence

Not sure there is a way out that allows the air to come out of the bubble very gently

Danny blanchflower
Danny blanchflower

I am glad Bozo555 keeps throwing up more smokescreens and questions, because he runs away from the facts and his own comments.

He is now changing his tune over house prices in May 2011, now trying to defend himself, by stating his comment was a question.

It does stink of desperation, but people with desperate arguments always clutch at straws.

Bozo555 is bringing up an old chestnut of CGT.

Because Bozo555 is thick, he tried to create the myth that the merger of the two CGT rates increased house prices.

If he could use a calendar, Bozo555 would have known CGT rates where merged in aug 2008. House prices declined in the whole of 2008, and didn't rise until the Spring of 2009.

I mention on a regular basis that Bozo555 is a wally brain, and he no problem repeating it for the record.

Trying to use the " Lagging " argument, is pretty bankrupt, because the Land Registry figures reflect the current state of the market.

As I have mentioned, the Land Registry reported a monthly decrease of 0.4% and an annual decrease of 2.2% when compared to May 2010.

Bozo555 initial argument, was that low interest rates where " Propping Up " house prices.

0.5% interests rates have been active when house prices have declined, undercutting his argument.

"Obama's Keynesian stimulus has failed"

Before 2008, Labour borrowed £350BN to inflate the economy. Did that fail?

Anyone else wonder if mike555 and matthew fox are in fact one and the same person?

@Barny

I can assure you not. 95% of my posts are in response to Matts ridicule. I don't know why posting about house prices being too high attracts such attention, but it doesn't bother me one bit as it's so easy to counter.

@David

In response to your 3 points on house prices:

1/ "tend to be", I never believed that people base their spending habits on the value of their home from month to month. I think the high level of house prices we have means people spend too much money on housing rather than boosting the economy.

2/ I don't think a drop in the nominal value of housing will bring the banks down after everything that's happened, I don't think the government will allow it. Propping house prices up with QE and low rates means more people in more debt and more people walking a financial tightrope. It's hard to over emphasize the negative effect high housing costs have on peoples lives, especially the young. Unless you've lived it, as many have over the last 10 years or so, it's hard to get it across.

3/ Again, I don't think many people base their spending on house prices. The hopelessly overborrowed have had unparalleled levels of help. People would have much more money if they didn't spend so much on mortgages/rent. Imagine if peoples mortgages were half as much, which they should be if it weren't for the housing boom, what effect would that have on their personal finances and their ability to spend?