David Allen Green

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Why I voted No to AV

An explanation of a vote against the liberal consensus.

Unlike being the only gay in the village, being the only liberal on the "wrong side" of a constitutional reform debate is not necessarily a thing to boast loudly about.

Indeed, one cannot be absolutely delighted at the company one is keeping.

But, a couple of months or so on from my post setting out the liberal case against the Alternative Vote system, today I voted "No" to AV.

I do not feel that strongly about the issue, and the introduction of AV would be nowhere near a calamity; that is why I am merely posting an explanation today, rather than a post urging a "No" vote earlier in the week.

And I certainly have no wish for any post of mine to be used again by the hapless, misleading, and disgraceful official No campaign, and certainly no one should vote No by reason of costs, complexity, or Clegg.

All the same, my No vote was on a principled and reasoned basis, and so it may be interesting to others to know what that basis was.

First, I simply do not accept your second or third preferences should have the same weight as my first preference, or vice versa. Here, I am familiar with all the counter-arguments about this not meaning there are "two bites of the cherry" and that everyone (somehow) still has one vote. I am familiar also with the actual mechanism of AV in practice.

However, I just cannot see how a second or third preference should be accorded equal weight with a first preference. For me, this violates the basic principle of equality of votes.

Second, and as a consequence, I cannot accept that adding together first and second preferences, and so on, creates any real - rather than an artificial - majority in an applicable constituency.

Otherwise, AV seems to have exactly the same faults as First Past the Post in regards of proportionality. The legislature will still not reflect the proportions of votes cast overall, and safe seats will still exist. Nothing fundamental will change.

However, this is not an issue to lose either sleep or friends over, and a win for AV today will not upset any sensible person, and it will upset quite a few senseless ones.

Given the expected low turnout, a win for AV may also provide us with the harmless pleasure of hearing its advocates explain the legitimacy of a new voting system which was supported by less than 50 per cent of those entitled to vote.

58 comments

Bren Tierney's picture

[whizzing forward to the 2012 Olympic Games Men's 100 Metre Final]

Generic BBC Sports Commentator:

"And after a thrilling race, Usain Bolt of Jamaica takes the tape for first place... but after the judges submitted their preferences for 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th, Bolt now shares joint first place with Bogdan Dmimitar of Bulgaria, who came in 4th. It is felt that this is a 'fairer' result..."

Bren Tierney's picture

I'm getting a little bored of this oft-repeated stock meme from AV/PR supports that, "you obviously don't understand the mechanism or the process of AV, therefore you've come to the wrong conclusions".

Wholesale arrogance and nasal condescension aside - and ignoring the fact that the vast majority of UK voters *do* understand the mechanism & process of AV and yet still vote(d) against it - you just can't accept that these 'plebs and non-sophisticates' simply disagree with your views and AV as a principle, can you?

PeteyMcPeterson's picture

Thanks, for another generation of Labour vs Tory tribalistic bollocks.

You're not my favourite person

Lee Griffin's picture

I think we can accept people "did not want it", what we can't accept is that it's a reasoned or logical conclusion to come to, like being offered a week's holiday in the Mediterranean or a week's solitary confinement, there was no reasonable explanation (and David's above do not enter that reasonable explanation territory either) as to why people chose solitary confinement.

Ian Burdon's picture

@Bren Tierney. Great idea. Perhaps we should now move to a system where points in football matches are distributed according to the number of goals scored in the game and redistributed over the season as the proportion of goals for and against changes. This would lead to a "fairer" result at the end of the season since no goal would be wasted, wouldn't you say?

Actionfitz's picture

Thanks David Allen Green...
Utter nonsense.
This wasn't about having multiple bites at the cherry, not even about devaluing the first preference votes of anyone.

This was about ending the phenomenon of successive right wing governments governing the collective nations of the UK, where on the whole there is a left or centre left majority opinion.

When I read future NS articles on this site i'll know to take anything you contribute with a pinch of centre right tory sympathising salt.

foowzkaa's picture

"I'm getting a little bored of this oft-repeated stock meme from AV/PR supports that, "you obviously don't understand the mechanism or the process of AV, therefore you've come to the wrong conclusions"."

Agreed. I do understand it, and I am against it in principle.

The constant condescension towards its opponents is possibly why the Yes campaign has not made any breakthrough, even though the No campaign was crap beyond belief.

OllieVargas's picture

Well done all you No2AV Yes2PR fuckwits, you've succesfully taken electoral reform off the table for another good 2-3 generations. I hope your proud, i support PR too but AV was the step and now PR is even further than its ever been.

David Lucas's picture

The "You don't understand" crowd (and why exactly are so many of you so rude and hostile?) need to learn that until you have understood someones counter-argument on their own terms you are in no position to persuade them of anything. You don't have to agree, but just repeating words that people of good will and apparent brains say do not make sense is tantamount to saying "la la la" again and again.

And about as effective, as the result shows.

Since you don't understand them and they don't understand you, what grounds do you have for assuming any final meeting of minds would leave them agreeing with you rather than you agreeing with them?

Mark's picture

To be fair, "you obviously don't understand" is a reasonable response if someone says something demonstrably false about AV, such as that some people get more votes than others. Sadly, people have been saying a lot of things like that during this campaign.

It's also rather disingenuous to put "plebs and non-sophisticates" in quotation marks when you're not actually quoting it.

That said, I do think telling people they "obviously don't understand" isn't helpful when you could instead say "This thing you have said is not correct, and this is why" (and if you can't say the latter, you probably don't have a justification for saying the former).

Bren Tierney's picture

@Ian Burdon

Assuming you want elections held every weekend, and not every four to five years, which is is why I used the analogy of the Olympics, then knock yourself out - but I doubt you'd carry the population's patience with you using your model. Hellishly expensive to boot mate.

Another reason your analogy doesn't work is that in a football match, there is only ever one of two results - at outright winner, or a draw - and the former is always preferable to the latter. Or perhaps the league should be decided by committee (or coalition) instead, as that would be even 'fairer', surely?

Bren Tierney's picture

Mark wrote: "... if someone says something demonstrably false about AV, such as that some people get more votes than others."

Wasn't aware anyone, and certainly not the article's author, had said this; I am aware that the author wrote (*my* opening parentheses), "... [as a fundamental principle] I simply do not accept your second or third preferences should have the same weight as my first preference, or vice versa."

I think we agree that this neither seeks to conflate 'someone having more votes than someone else' with the principle of 2nd and 3rd preferences having the same weight as anyone else's first, nor does it allude to same.

I read above that someone else, who read the author's statement and replied here, couldn't actually understand it - even going so far as to claim that it didn't make sense. With no small irony these are the same people claiming that the author misunderstands the mechanism and process of AV.

As for me placing "plebs and non-sophisticates" in inverted commas - I can see attributive sarcasm isn't necessarily your strong suit.

dwayne dowser's picture

I don't understand your point on second preferences. Why does it make sense to give a lower weight to second preferences?

ivan's picture

This referendum is rather like an fake election in a flawed democracy: candidates that people would have liked to vote for (ie PR) have not been allowed to stand.

I fear that a win for "no change" will be misinterpreted as "people don't want any change" rather than its true meaning of "people don't want the change offered". Compare the Australian referendum on a republic, where they voted against the republic on offer, rather than against a republic in principle.

Bren Tierney's picture

If the BBC is to be believed, only 4 out of 440 constituencies in England, Scotland & Wales votes Yes to AV - and two of those were in London.

It's clear that the other 436 constituencies didn't "understand" what they were voting for - the peasants.

Michael's picture

@DAG: "I do understand it, and I am against it in principle." But your understanding of this is not revealed in what you wrote particularly because of the equal weight claim. If you are going to argue on a technical issue then the arguments should be technically correct.

BTW Is the old voting system supported by more than 50% of those entitled to vote?

@Bren: Even high profile people in the press have made statements showing that they misunderstand the mechanism, so I don't believe that the vast majority of voters do _necessarily_ understand it.

Tom (iow)'s picture

I'm listening to the radio and all commentators agree on one thing: the *size* of the no vote has ended the question of reform. It's been, totally predictably, taken as an endorsement of FPTP.

So if you voted no because you want PR, you have made the most basic error under the satus quo of failing to vote tactically, because voting tactically is a necessary feature of the current system when the option you want cannot win. If you don't you help your opponent.

Arthur Williamson's picture

Mr Allen Green

Your believe your second, third, fourth preferences etc should not carry as much weight as your first choice. That sounds like you are passionate about one political party whilst rather idifferent about all the others.

Jeremy Stein's picture

"However, I just cannot see how a second or third preference should be accorded equal weight with a first preference. For me, this violates the basic principle of equality of votes."

I think what you're saying is that somebody's second or third preference is not as strong as the first, so it shouldn't be allowed to count as though it were a first.

Yes, I may have a very strong preference of (say) the Greens, but only a mild preference for Labour over the Lib Dems, and marking them 1,2,3 does not express this. But I may just as likely have a very *strong* preference for Labour ahead of the Lib Dems (and the Greens must have been eliminated by this stage if we're caring about 2nd and 3rd preferences).

This applies under FPTP too. Someone who votes Green may prefer them greatly over anyone else, but another person who votes Green may only barely prefer them over anyone else, but these votes are counted equally. There's really nothing you can do about this, and AV neither fixes this nor makes this worse.

And as others have pointed out, a supporter of a small party under FPTP is likely to be voting tactically, so they won't be voting for their first preference anyway.

KC's picture

Look, the question of AV would never have raised its mediocre head had Clegg not insisted upon it. FPTP has served this country well for generations. The fact that most of the commentators (hecklers?) here cannot even agree on what AV actually means, says it all. It is flawed, complicated and unnecessary. Stop whining

Dark Heart of Toryland's picture

'A win for AV may also provide us with the harmless pleasure of hearing its advocates explain the legitimacy of a new voting system which was supported by less than 50 per cent of those entitled to vote.'

Shouldn't be any more difficult than justifying the old voting system which routinely provides governments supported by less than 50 per cent of those entitled to vote.

Bren Tierney's picture

With an unflinching lack of irony, it's predicted that the percentage of UK voters set to reject AV (and by extension any immediate prospect of PR in general) will be nigh-on two thirds (63%) of the population. That is their, ahem, preference.

Adam's picture

"First, I simply do not accept your second or third preferences should have the same weight as my first preference, or vice versa."

"I am familiar also with the actual mechanism of AV in practice."

Clearly you're not that familiar with it if you think a second preference vote carries equal weight to a first preference vote. If one candidate wins 50% of the first preference votes, no-one's second preference vote counts for anything.

Mel Davis's picture

I did understand AV I just didn't want it so I voted NO. Your 3rd or 4th choice doesn't carry as much weight as your first choice. Simples. FPTP is not perfect but was the better of the two evils for me.

G's picture

"However, this is not an issue to lose either sleep or friends over" Well said

Bren Tierney's picture

@ J Blamey

"AV is a run-off system... each of those votes has equal weighting... *Whoever gets the most votes wins.*"

Wow - just like FPTP - uncanny, isn't it?

J Blamey's picture

Re: "I just cannot see how a second or third preference should be accorded equal weight with a first preference. For me, this violates the basic principle of equality of votes."

AV is a run-off system that for 'n' candidates, each voter has 'n-1' votes; each of those votes has equal weighting.

In doing so, it simulates a multi-round system - similar to systems that exist in, eg., France presidential (only 2 rounds) - but in one vote.

Say for example there are four candidates A, B, C & D.
You vote A-1, B-2, C-3
I vote D-1, C-2, B-3

Round 1: My vote is for D, yours is for A
D gets the least votes and is eliminated

Round 2: My vote is for C, yours is for A
C gets the least votes and is eliminated

Round 3: My vote is for B, yours is for A
Whoever gets the most votes wins

In each of these rounds, our votes were equal. How does this violate the principle of equality of votes?

p.s. If someone only marks '1' against D but knows full well that they have no chance of being elected, they are essentially staying at home for round 2 and 3 of the ballot (because they are disillusioned with the main parties). That is their choice (these folk might be advised to cast their second vote for a party that supports PR).

Bren Tierney's picture

Amongst all the deliberately dissembling claims as to why the 'Yes to AV' camp lost is the corker that "people didn't understand the mechanisms of AV - it's too complex...", when in reality, as the author states in his Jack of Kent blog piece, the AV proposal was rejected simply because people did not want it. Alas, like the 'Birthers' and 'Truthers' in the US, there are still those in the 'Yes to AV' camp who will never, under any circumstances, believe or accept that.

Matthew Preston's picture

As a yes supporter, I've been dismayed at the quality of the #yestoav campaign. They were too slow to counter the accusations of "under AV, the loser wins" and "AV is undemocratic" and other nonsense (I mean, saying the 'loser wins' begs the question somewhat...). The negative tactics of the no campaign seemed to catch them by surprise - and by the time they started to produce counter arguments they'd already lost the momentum.

In some ways I think that the Lib Dems made a strategic error right up front - by allowing the choice to be between FPTP and AV, they lost some of their core support. If the choice was instead for the more proportional AV+, would we be seeing a difference in the national mood towards a change?

But I've also been struck at how well funded the no campaign has appeared in comparison. Of course the establishment (in a sub-conscious, non-conspiracy sort of way ;-) ) want to continue using a system that ensures that they can rule absolutely with a 36% majority.

Michael's picture

"I just cannot see how a second or third preference should be accorded equal weight with a first preference" They aren't. You have a misunderstanding of the process.

Beyond this, no to AV probably means no to any other electoral reform (House of Lords I'm looking at you) for another generation.

Alex's picture

Re "You have a misunderstanding of the process".

If I vote for a main party, say the Labour party, but this party does not secure 50% of the vote, then the lowest party drops out and their second votes are counted.

Supposing the lowest party is the BNP or a religious right candidate, and most of their second votes are for the Conservative party, then surely that second vote caries the same weight as my first if it leads to a Conservative reaching 50%. No?

Also assuming I vote for a major party, it is likely that my second vote will not be counted, as the second votes of minority parties will add up to enough to give the main candidates a majority, giving a minority of voters a stronger arm in deciding the outcome.

Nakwan chinga's picture

I ****ing hate people like you. So 'lefty' you're a tory eh? nope - you're just a tory you smug ****

Arturo Bandini's picture

@Nakwan chinga - Calm down, dear.

Matthew Johns's picture

Whilst respecting your decision, it has no logical basis. One could equally argue that someone's second or third preferences should carry more weight, as they are more likely to represent a pragmatic, rather than ideological, opinion. In years gone by individuals from certain backgrounds could cast more votes, but thankfully the idea that all voters, on any decision, carry equal weight now holds sway.

Kevin Murray's picture

So you voted Yes to FPTP I hope you can explain yourself to the next generation as they ask you why you didn't take the chance of voting reform when it was offered to you. Neither Conservative nor Labour will introduce reform on their own and the Liberals won't be in power again for a long time so if you are waiting for PR don't hold your breath.

Dorian's picture

@Nakwan Could not have said it better myself. A disgusting article, more akin to the Telegraph than the NS.

Ekcol's picture

@Alex - "If I vote for a main party, say the Labour party, but this party does not secure 50% of the vote, then the lowest party drops out and their second votes are counted."

And if they do secure 50% of the vote no one's second preference is counted at all; therefore it doesn't have equal weight with a first preference.

I many elections, second preference votes get a weight of zero, as the count doesn't progress that far. In *some* elections, a *small proportion* - only those whose first preference is knocked out - are counted with a weight of 1 (equal to first preference votes).

The average weight of a second preference vote is number of second preferences that actually get counted divided by the number of second preferences cast. It is clearly less than 1.

DAG's picture

Hey look at me everybody, I'm joining the Lib Dems even though the party's never been more unpopular! Aren't I daring and exciting!

Wow, look at me, I'm voting against AV even though I support the party who would benefit most from it! I'm such an independent thinker!

Look at me! Look at me!

David Allen Green1's picture

@DAG

*waves* :-)

Dave C's picture

Nakwan chinga,

If memory serves, DAG was a Conservative supporter who's recently joined the Liberal Democrats, but who doesn't support the Liberal Democrats on AV. Just because he's a legal commentator for NS doesn't make him a man of the left.

Dave C's picture

When I wrote the above comment, I was using DAG as an abbreviation for David Allen Green. While I was drafting the comment, someone posted a comment using DAG as nom de plume. So my above comment refers to David Allen Green, not the commenter.

Chris McCray's picture

I voted Yes. I want the ability to vote Green and ensure that failing that Labour, which suits my ecologist/left perspective. I live in a relatively safe Labour constituency, and being able to more properly express my true political standpoint, I hope, will be a more satisfactory engagement with the political process as a whole.

I too won't lose sleep over this whichever way the country votes. The argument "if we don't vote yes we won't get another chance" is probably right, but in the aftermath, we need clear debate to assess properly why that is so (I don't hold much hope for that either).

Imho we have too many MPs (100-150 should do) and those that we have are just not capable of forming decent law or holding the executive to proper account, though they mostly seem to be capable of representing at least some of their constituents. As for the Lords, the implication of Cameron's 100+ new peers will continue to make that place a laughing stock.

JC's picture

I'm rather disappointed by all the ad hominem in the comments. This is by far the most reasonable justification for a No vote that I've seen so far, even though I think David's reasoning is flawed.

Jack Elam's picture

Because you're too stupid to understand how it works, despite it being pie-simple. Okay.

Tom's picture

I can't understand why my first preference should not be given the same weight as everyone lese first preference, it would be under Proportional representation but isn't under FPTP.

Mr Mean's picture

"This is by far the most reasonable justification for a No vote that I've seen so far, even though I think David's reasoning is flawed."

Err, this statement is as incoherent as the whole No campaign.

Nylon's picture

@Arthur Williamson

"Your believe your second, third, fourth preferences etc should not carry as much weight as your first choice. That sounds like you are passionate about one political party whilst rather idifferent about all the others."

This is simply twaddle. Even if your statement were true it has nothing to do with the argument for or against AV. I'm sure the party leaders, including Clegg, have a similar 'passion' for one particular party and indifference for the others - and I'm sure many of the have no time at all for the BNP. This has nothing to do with how they view AV.

Clive's picture

For too many years I have had to vote for my second choice because my first choice did not stand a chance and voting for them might let the others in!

Both Conservative and Labour have actually promoted this argument many times in the past to secure your vote. Hardly fair I feel

Matthew Zarb-Cousin's picture

this is the dumbest thing I've ever read.

Jamie's picture

"I just cannot see how a second or third preference should be accorded equal weight with a first preference"

But this happens under FPTP as well, it's just 'hidden'. If I want to vote Green but know they can't possibly win and instead vote Labour, my second preference (Labour) has been counted rather than my first.

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