Ed's hit himself with a hammer. Why is he surprised it hurts?

Miliband is fundamentally wrong in his perception of where the centre ground is.

By Dan Hodges Published 28 September 2011 13:45

Ed Miliband said before he arrived in Liverpool he wanted to re-write the political rulebook. Yesterday, he succeeded.

The rules for party conference speeches go something like this. The leader arrives. It is billed either as "make or break" if they are under pressure, or "the most important speech of their life" if they are on the verge of political breakthrough. In Ed's case I think we can safely put that breakthrough stuff aside for a moment.

Prior to the great address there are mutterings of discontent. Noises off that hint at dark deeds if the becalmed or embattled leader does not deliver. Then he rises. A self deprecating joke. Thanks to the spouse. A plea to "get to work" or "down to business".

Forty minutes later the world has turned. Conference is on it's feet, the critics silenced. For one brief moment the mists clear and our troubled politician again catches a glimpse of the sunlit uplands.

If only. There are no sunny uplands on Ed Miliband's horizon today. "It was obvious he was attempting to move his party away from the territory on which Tony Blair fought elections", said the Times, "It was also the territory on which Mr Blair won elections. And Mr Miliband may have moved just a little farther from that too". "Ed Miliband's shift to the left is a gift for the Tories", said Ben Brogan in the Telegraph.

This morning Labour's leader should have been basking in the plaudits. Instead he was roaming the TV and radio studios in a desperate attempt at damage limitation. "I'm not anti-business" he said over and over. His party wasn't lurching to the left but "firmly in the middle ground of politics".

Fine. But what exactly did Ed Miliband expect? What reaction was he looking for to a speech from a Labour leader that divided the nation into "producers" and "predators", attacked '"bad" businesses and "consensus" politics, declared war on "vested interests", and announced to loud cheers he was nothing like a man who had secured three successive electoral mandates from the British people.

"I genuinely don't understand", said one shadow cabinet source this morning, "why give a speech like that and then get cross when it gets written up that way". Quite. Watching Ed Miliband today has been like watching someone pick up a hammer, hit themselves in the head and then cry out in surprise, "Oh my god, that hurt me!".

To be fair, some of Ed Miliband's supporters are realistic about the implications of the strategy they're adopting. "If you want to win an election in one term you have to take risks", one insider said yesterday, "a safety first approach just won't cut it". There is also some relief amongst his team that the 'no definition, no strategy' monkey he's been carrying around for the past year has finally been prised from his back, "I don't think Ed will be too unhappy if the interpretation is he's found direction, even if there's some criticism of what that direction is", said one source.

But there's removing a monkey from your back, and there's burning it off with a flamethrower. Yesterday Ed Miliband chose to do the latter, and the general impression of a man who has decided to march his party off to the left is toxic.

It also underlines one of the central problems of his leadership. That is that whilst Ed Miliband understands the need to occupy the middle ground of politics, he is fundamentally wrong in his perception of where it is.

If he took the time to skim through that political rulebook he is so intent on shredding he would find on page one, paragraph one the following; "During times of recession and economic hardship the electorate becomes more conservative".

When Ed Miliband says that since the glory years of New Labour the centre of gravity of British politics has shifted, he's right. But it hasn't moved towards the Labour party, but away from it.

Yes people dislike the bankers. But what they dislike was their profligacy, and their reaction is a demand for greater fiscal responsibility and prudence. People are struggling financially. Which means they have even less time for their fellow citizens who try to milk the benefits system or do their shopping through a smashed store-front window.

At times yesterday Ed Miliband tried to acknowledge that. But those nods and winks were lost within his overall narrative. People yearning for stability will not embrace a leader who tells them his leadership will involve, "taking risks". People with a longing for security will not readily turn towards someone who believes "nobody ever changed things on the basis of consensus".

Ed Miliband has decided to do things his own way; be his own man. There is, he said, nothing to be gained from, "wanting to be liked". Judging by the reaction to his speech, perhaps that's just as well.

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Tags: Party Conferences 2011 Ed Miliband

More from Dan Hodges

68 comments

Wed, 2011-09-28 23:07 — Dickie1

@Ken Hall,

"Tony Blair was pretending to be a tory."

I disagree. TB pretended to be a socialist. As people found out he wasn't the tide turned. The things that were supposed to get better still haven't - that's what people voted for in 1997.

Thu, 2011-09-29 00:00 — PoliticalTrannie

To thos e who argue that Ed will not win floating voters, some of us floating voters were not natural born floaters. Speaking for myself, I have always been left-centric in my voting choice. That all changed with Tony Blair. Disillusioned by his faux-labour toryism, I was ledt disgusted and never voted for Labour again. Now I am feeling the pull of the left again. This is mainly because of Ed. During the leader election, I told myself if Labour had elected David Miliband, they will never get my vote again in my lifetime. And this is a sentiment echoes by many amongst my friends who feel the same way. Ed may not win, but I know in 2015, on the night after I put my vote in the ballot box, I can sleep easy feeling all good and right again.

Thu, 2011-09-29 03:30 — Les Abbey (not verified)

Maybe it's you Dan who has missed where the middle ground has moved to. Look at the polls regarding keeping the 50p tax rate. If anything I think that Ed Miliband is probably to the right of the middle ground at the present. See this at Labourhome.

http://labourhome.org/2011/09/being-behind-the-curve/

Tue, 2011-10-04 11:41 — Phil (not verified)

You based this article on your perceptions, Dan, in the absence of evidence. The polling evidence is now available, and shows that Miliband's theme was overwhelmingly popular. So your perception was wrong. Do you change your opinion when the facts change? You need to let us know.

The evidence
YouGov (Sunday Times)
"In his conference speech Labour leader Ed
Miliband described Britain as dominated by
"fast-buck capitalists" and "predators, not
producers". Do you agree or disagree with this
description?"
Agree 55%
Disagree 26%

Thu, 2011-09-29 10:39 — Warren (not verified)

Poor old Dan can't quite accept that Blatcherism's ideological grip on the Labour Party is moribund. Maybe he'd feel more at home with his fellow neoliberals in the tory party or orange book wing of the lib dems.

Tue, 2011-10-11 02:27 — Shamik Das (not verified)

Paragraph 4: "Conference is on it's feet." Sort. It. Out!

In all seriousness, it'll be a shame to lose you from these pages.

Shamik

Wed, 2011-10-12 10:50 — Mr. Divine (not verified)

Maybe I'll see you some time Dan. Good luck Dan. You made me laugh.

Thu, 2011-09-29 13:01 — Acamar (not verified)

There is no union block, Ken. Ed won fair and square, so get used to it, although Dan is still in denial.

People are often inclined to vote against someone else that they dislike. How on earth, other than that, would give an result for John Major. Quite a lot of people in the party were heartily sick of Blair, and anyone in similar mould. So Ed obviously did benefit from this anti David vote.

But it was Ed who won, and good luck to him.

The same principle applies to general elections - the Coalition will fail because of their incompetence, and cruelty. And Labour will win.

Fri, 2011-09-30 09:19 — swatantra (not verified)

Labour should be the Party of the hardworking small business man and woman, just as the Tories are the Party of big business share holders and bankers.
Ed simply doesn't have the X Factor. Perhaps Andy Burnham does.

Thu, 2011-09-29 13:30 — slowaardvark (not verified)

Very good and objective analysis in this excellent article

Tue, 2011-10-11 10:42 — Dave C (not verified)

Au revoir, Dan. I won't miss you.

Mon, 2011-10-03 05:01 — elrob

The best piece to be written of EM's speech in the mainstream media remains that of Peter Osborne. Few others have realised its fundamental importance. An importance that leaves, NewLabourite/ Blairites looking very dated.

Dinosaurs such as Hodges and his ilk have simply failed to realise that their entire political economy as that of the current Tories/Orange book libdems has failed on a spectacular scale.

And cutting the deficit than Darling would have will make n difference. It's far more fundamental. The country (I refer to individuals, companies, corporations far more than govt) have been increasingly living off debt for 30 years. It's time to pay up, and it will mark the end of Thatcherism, and it is why Labour got the right Miliband.

Few others in the party have noticed the history-turning moment that was Lehmans/AIG etc. To see how little the people of the UK understand the depth of the crisis, just witness the still exorbitant prices asked for houses. They have no notion of the tsunami coming our way.

Tue, 2011-10-11 11:02 — swatantra nandanwar

You can't keep a good man down. Perhaps we'll see more of him on Uncut. But I dont think its the criticism of Ed thats done him in though; half the Party including me are a bit unhappy about Ed the Unready.

Wed, 2011-09-28 14:14 — Marxist Nutter (not verified)

So you'd rather he sticks to the neo-conservative Blatcher discourse that has been completley discredited by recent events than draw on the bold, intellectually rich tradition of the Left, inorder to steer a path out of the shambles neo-liberalism has left us in? That might make him popular; but it will only serve to make more people poor and rich elite richer. I think we can all see your agenda shining through: pander to the crude populaism that paradoxically serves elite interests. I am not a fan of EM; but at least he's not a Tory.

Wed, 2011-09-28 14:31 — Eileen2

I'm not sure what your agenda is Dan but you never have a positive spin to put on anything that Ed Miliband says or does. Pissed off with Blair. Pissed off with Cameron. Pissed off with Dan Hodges.

Fri, 2011-09-30 10:36 — Acamar (not verified)

I hate this X Factor idea. I hate the idea of leaders, who are or end up being egomaniacs, or just batty. We really don't need them. We need a parliament of real principled and intelligent people.

And, to add, it makes me cringe to hear Tony or Gordon or Ed, talking in Oprah terms. Moral compasses and all that rubbish.

Wed, 2011-09-28 14:38 — Mizar (not verified)

Dan, you are a sad boy.

Fri, 2011-09-30 10:43 — swatantra nandanwar

Lets put it this way: Its no point in talking to an empty room or singing to an empty hall. Someting and someone special has to draw them in otherwise the message falls on stony ground. And its no point in preaching to the converted; its the doubters and undecideds we have to reach.
The Media will turn up anyway because they have to report fairly across Parties. And because of the free booze.

Wed, 2011-09-28 14:41 — Scotty

I think MilliE has hit the nail on the head - the rich should be made poor to ensure the poor are not disadvantaged - thats equality - there will be no problem with the stretched middle as there will only be the poor, and we will all be equally stretched and happy.
Except for the trade union bosses - they'll inherit the riches because they defend the public sector, who pay their massive salaries by recycling the private sector poor peoples hard earned taxes.
The neo luddites of the left will win because we all want to be equally poor. Simples ain't it.

Wed, 2011-09-28 14:43 — rob c (not verified)

Marxist Nutter

You can believe in fiscal conservatism AND want to challenge vested interest. You can believe that our benefits system creates perverse incentives and entrenches poverty AND want to break the stranglehold of corrupt elites. There's no conflict there. I want bankers, like Labour's Fred Goodwin, sent to prison. But I also want the government to balance the books and stop frittering tax on debt interest. Hodges isn't a Tory, he just understands where the middle ground lies.

Wed, 2011-09-28 14:45 — Erm (not verified)

"I am not a fan of EM; but at least he's not a Tory."

Which is why he will never win an election.

Enjoy.

Wed, 2011-09-28 14:46 — Peter (not verified)

I'm sure you must even bore yourself sometimes, Dan. Or at least you would do if you had the sufficient self-awareness.

Wed, 2011-09-28 14:48 — Jane (not verified)

You are right as usual. Mr Miliband will never attract floating voters as his speech was clearly taking the party to the left. He is clearly out of touch. His anti business stance was alarming and ludicrous. He made a serious error in how he sought to distance himself from previous leaders. I was very upset at how he spoke about this issue which ensured that the most successful labour PM we have ever had was booed by some delegates.

He will never get my vote. To win an election you have to appeal to all sections of the party. This speech failed to do that.

Wed, 2011-09-28 15:05 — bobsyourmonkhouse (not verified)

Perhaps the worst part is that this was clearly a genuine attempt by Dan at realpolitik. Lazily declaring any move to the Left by a Labour leader is akin to shooting oneself in the foot, is neither astute political commentary, or realistic as regards the British electorate. Time to leave your bubble, Dan.

More Tory nonsense from a NuLaburrr shill.

Thu, 2011-09-29 15:11 — Robert Taggart

@Danny Hodges...
Do you really 'love' RedEd ?...
SHOW US YOUR BADGE !

Wed, 2011-09-28 15:10 — Freeman2

Blair was a criminal. And still is. Anyone who dissociates himself from him is taking one step in the right direction.

Wed, 2011-09-28 15:22 — Mike Thomas (not verified)

Well, it made me laugh. Ed demonising bankers is like Dr. Frankenstein trying to kill his creation.

I am a Tory and Dan is no Tory. The fact that some of the lefties here think he is only proves Dan's point.

You have a strange view where the centre is.

Well done everyone.

Thu, 2011-09-29 15:28 — Robert (not verified)

Parties don't win elections - they lose them.

I think whatever Miliband does he still has the same chance of getting elected.

Tue, 2011-10-11 13:14 — Mr. Divine (not verified)

The best, the funniest and the most balanced blogger goes. What am I going to do without you?

Wed, 2011-10-12 14:46 — Benedict (not verified)

Dan's shot himself in the foot. Why is he surprised it hurts?

Wed, 2011-09-28 15:45 — Alex (not verified)

Dan epitomises the floating voter. Back the most populist opinion, seems to be the order of the day for him.

Wed, 2011-09-28 15:46 — mcquade

Of course, this is very selective journalism designed solely to sustain Hodges' agenda.

Thu, 2011-09-29 15:40 — Henry6

Typical inside the beltway rubbish. Anyone would think the world hasn't changed since 1997.

Wed, 2011-09-28 15:52 — mcquade

"Hodges isn't a Tory, he just understands where the middle ground lies."

And the middle ground shifts in politics and has done for the past century. However much people think Blair operated soleley on the right-centre, full consideration of all his policies show he too recalibrated the centre ground leftwards.

Wed, 2011-09-28 15:55 — mcquade

"Pissed off with Dan Hodges."

Best not to write that Eileen. Nothing an ego-tripper likes better than that.

Wed, 2011-09-28 15:57 — Mejoff (not verified)

Yeah, the Labour party needs to move to the right, not the left. There should be no left of centre option for voters in this country, this is what Blair told us, this is what Clegg has told us. Two or three right wing parties is what's needed and Milliband is a fool and a traitor to attempt to reconcile Labour with the faint shreds of its origins.

Wed, 2011-09-28 16:00 — Roger (not verified)

I normally agree with Dan's philippics but the world has changed radically since TB won three election victories by artfully triangulating himself into the soggy centre of the zeitgeist.

That world has gone and Ed Miliband while a poor excuse for a leader does at least some to understand that and is groping towards a new politics.

But the problem is that global great depressions do not actually make the people any wiser or nicer - the 1929 one drove the Germans into the arms of Hitler and confirmed a Tory-dominated coalition into power with two huge majorities in the UK (and even Roosevelts first victory in 1932 was won on a programme which was to the right of Hoover's).

And almost every democratic election of the last two years has seen right wing parties triumph (Denmark hardly counts as there was only a very minor shift in support to the centre -left).

But I can see no evidence that shifting rightwards works either - when the electorate is in a foul mood and its latent xenophobia and stupidity is running riot they will vote for the foul xenophobic and stupid party and not for nice centrist liberals and social democrats playing lets pretend.

Irish Labour for instance was at one point leading the polls and looked poised for a historic electoral breakthrough - until it became clear that they would stick with Fine Gael and implement whatever punitive austerity measures the IMF and ECB forced on them.

Obama's decline in the polls also seems to be correlated with the huge contrast between his radical rhetoric in opposition and his feeble and craven centrism in office.

So we may well all be screwed but Ed is just a part of the problem - I really believe David M would be saying much the same things only with a much more polished delivery.

Wed, 2011-09-28 16:04 — Tom Donnelly (not verified)

"Conference is on it's feet"

Really? Without the safety net of a possessive pronoun?

http://twitter.com/nakedputz

Wed, 2011-09-28 16:10 — trevor marwood (not verified)

Labour had a mandate in 1997 to stop the neocon wet dream but Tory Blair gave us more of the same with his large majority of supine mp clones.The message that has to get through to our own tea party the middle class is that they have been used for the last 30 years by the top 10% of elite carpet baggers.There own standard of living was only kept topped up by there homes.Now they have to live off topped up low wages via tax credits or more likely minimum wages or unemployment take your choice.The political tunnel vision of the majority of you hacks is unbelievable you need to get out more and see the real world.

Wed, 2011-09-28 16:37 — Kippers

Perhaps Milliband has decided to tell it like it is rather than trying to feed the fantasies of the centre-ground.

Wed, 2011-09-28 17:03 — Marcus (not verified)

Hodges and Penny are the only two on this blog that dont succumb to the temptation of blindly and sycophantically backing Red Ed.

They actually think about and believe in something that is not handed to them from Baldwin and Labour Party HQ in the hope of one day becoming a MP. Other bloggers here do just that. Its boring when they do.

Its a shame some of the commenters here aren't a little more open minded and less tribal. A few are about as illiberal as the right of the Tory party. My guess is that they are just students like the 'broke' mockney posh boy paraded to conference earlier in the week who cannot afford to go to school.

Sorry, but no.

Wed, 2011-09-28 17:07 — earlydawn

The risk we are running in this second Depression is that we repeat all the same mistakes of the first, only - as has been observed before - this time as farce. It really doesn't matter what Ed or Dave or even Nick say - they don't run the country any more. I hope that the outcome isn't the same as last time, but I fear that it will be.

Wed, 2011-09-28 17:11 — Marxist Nutter (not verified)

@ ROB C

I agree that such a position is a coherent; but does not quite seem to be the one either EM or Dan Hodges are advocating. Hodges seems against trying to shift the middle ground back to the centre (which really needs to be done as the centre is so far right now it is unhelpful. A brave attempt to shift the middle ground should be applauded, even when it comes from those you dislike!

Wed, 2011-09-28 17:23 — Nick (not verified)

Pity you can't spell its

Wed, 2011-09-28 17:23 — Stuart Eels (not verified)

Agree with just about everything you have written here Marcus, except for Laura Penny but thats by the by.

I wonder if the majority of he commenters on here have ever been out in the big bad world of employment. Ed Miliband hasn't really lived a life in the commercial world at all, so he spouts this rubbish and this lot believe it! It's like the dead parrot sketch.

I nearly choked on my toast reading about the poor broke Rory Weal who attended a Public School at £13,788 per year, he'll make a first class Labour MP soonest!

Wed, 2011-09-28 17:29 — ChrisL (not verified)

Come on the Times and Telegraph would have attacked Ed no matter what he said.
I want to hear more fighting the tories and laughing at the Lib Dems.

Wed, 2011-09-28 17:43 — Hal Berstram (not verified)

I have come to the conclusion that Dan is actually part of Ed's inner circle. His job is to mount the most ludicrous over-the-top attack on everything Ed says and does. By doing this in such a clumsy and ineffectual way he then obfuscates any more effective criticisms of Ed which might otherwise appear.

It's a clever move by Ed to have someone like Dan Hodges working for him. Very clever.

Thu, 2011-09-29 17:37 — Simple Simon

Yes, the electorate becomes more cautious during a depression. Yes they hate claimants and unemployed people - they grudge the benefits and fear the unemployed. In the thirties the Jews were blamed - today it is asylum-seekers. Yes yes we know...
We also know that Labour developed its vision of democratic socialism during the thirties - and had a dream of something immeasurably better to inspire the elctorate in 1945 and 1950. It was not achieved in five minutes, or even five years.

Thu, 2011-09-29 18:17 — Mejoff (not verified)

@Daniele
No, Labour hasn't been the party of the left since Dan's beloved Tony took over and made it into a bonus conservative party. He's objecting, not to a continuation but a reversal.

Mon, 2011-10-10 16:04 — Olijaan

So it seems Dan Hodges won't be gracing these pages again after one attack too many on Ed. Although he was a divisive figure and I disagreed with most of what he wrote (and wasn't a big fan of his style), at least he presented a different perspective - and I would have thought that the NS covered a broad enough spectrum to accommodate him.