Where are Ed Miliband's fairweather friends?

The Labour leader is being bitten by the mouths that until last week were praising him.

Come on then, where are you? Purveyors of the "new politics", advocates of the new progressive order. Your man is in trouble. Ed Miliband is getting what is known in technical parlance as a bloody good kicking. And yet you're silent. You plastic loyalists are nowhere.

We were all supposed to be rallying around, weren't we? Marching in step. "Back the leader" was the mantra. Back the leader until he does something significant we don't like; then we can cut him loose.

My Twitter account is strangely silent. There are no angry missives from chief lieutenant Peter Hain today.

"The strikes are a mistake," said Ed Miliband on Friday. Then, we waited for his loyal aides to follow up in support -- and we waited. "I don't think political leaders, in opposition or in government, should either applaud strikes or condemn strikes," said Hain on Sunday. Jesus. With friends like these...

Miliband is leader of the Labour Party. In my opinion, he hasn't been a particularly impressive leader of the Labour Party, but at the moment he's the only leader we've got. He's not going to become a better leader by backing the strike action. I support the strikers, and I've said so. I think they have right on their side, and I think they have a chance of victory.

But once Miliband became leader of the Labour Party, he relinquished the luxury of speaking out exclusively on behalf of those with whom he has empathy. Once he was elected Leader of the Labour Party, he took on the responsibility of speaking for the country.

You were the ones that elected him -- those of you who now cry betrayal the loudest. You put him in that position of responsibility. And having done so, you now chose to castigate him when he exercises it.

What did you think you were doing -- electing the president of a student union? This man is putting himself forward for the job of prime minister of the country. He can't pick up a placard and take a stroll along the picket lines.

I wish he could. I wish we did live in a country where the majority of our fellow citizens were members of a trade union, and shared their values and objectives, but many of our fellow citizens don't. We know that, because we're on the streets, and David Cameron and Nick Clegg are sitting around the table with their feet up, having a good laugh at Miliband being bitten by the mouths that until last week were praising him.

You didn't actually believe all this rubbish about the new politics, and no more triangulation, and no more pandering the press, did you? There is no "new politics". There never will be. There is only the same soul-destroying, self-crucifying struggle to push the boulder back to the top of the hill. You knew that when you signed up, when you joined the Labour Party, when you chose to make a difference.

So come on, fairweather friends. You talked a good game when the sun was shining and you were basking in the accolades of the progressive majority.

Now let's see what you're really made of. Your man'st in trouble. That means you: Sadiq Khan, Peter Hain, Jon Tricket, Chuka Umunna, Seamus Milne, Neal Lawson, Jacqui Ashley.

I'm standing up for Ed Miliband. Where the hell are you?

 

Photo: Getty
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The New Statesman 2016 local and devolved elections liveblog

Results and analysis from elections across the United Kingdom. 

Welcome to the New Statesman's elections liveblog. Results will be coming in from the devolved legislatures in Scotland and Wales, local elections in England, and the mayoral contests in London, Salford, Bristol and Liverpool. Hit refresh for updates!

22:55: What news from Scotland? Labour looks to have been wiped out in Glasgow. Liberal Democrats think they might hold at least one of Orkney or Shetland, while the seats in Edinburgh are anyone's game. 

22:52: Hearing that turnout is low in Waltham Forest, Lewisham, Hackney and my birthplace of Tower Hamlets (the borough's best export unless you count Dizzie Rascal, Tinchy Stryder or Harry Redknapp, that's me). Bad news for Labour unless turnout is similarly low in the Tory-friendly outer boroughs. 

22:47: YouGov have done a poll (note: not an exit poll, it should not be taken as seriously as an exit poll and if you call it an exit poll I swear to god I will find you and kill you) of the Welsh Assembly. Scores on the door:

Labour 27

Plaid Cymru 12 

Conservatives 11

Ukip 8

Liberal Democrat 2

There are 60 seats in the Assembly, so you need 30 seats for a majority of one. 

22:40: In case you're wondering, how would closing a seven point deficit to say, six, compare to previous Labour oppositions, I've done some number-crunching. In 1984, Neil Kinnock's Labour turned a Tory lead of 15 per cent at the general election to a Conservative lead of just one per cent. In 1988, one of 12 per cent went down to one per cent. (He did, of course, go on to lose in both the 1987 and 1992 elections). In 1993, John Smith's Labour party turned a deficit of eight points at the general to a Labour lead of eight points in the local elections. William Hague turned a Labour lead of 13 points to one of just six in 1998, while Iain Duncan Smith got a Tory lead of just one point - from a Labour lead of nine. In 2006, new Tory leader David Cameron turned a 3 point Labour lead to a 13 point Tory one. Ed Miliband - remember him? - got from a Tory lead of seven points to a two point Labour one. 

22:35: John McDonnell is setting out what would be a good night as far as the party leadership is concerned - any improvement on the 2015 defeat, when the party trailed by close to seven points. Corbyn's critics say he needs to make around 400 gains.

I've written about what would be good at length before, but here's an extract:

"Instead of worrying overmuch about numbers, worry about places. Although winning seats and taking control of councils is not a guarantee of winning control of the parliamentary seat – look at Harlow, Nuneaton, and Ipswich, all of which have Labour representation at a local level but send a Conservative MP to Westminster – good performances, both in terms of increasing votes and seats, are a positive sign. So look at how Labour does in its own marginals and in places that are Conservative at a Westminster level, rather than worrying about an exact figure either way."

22:31: Oh god, the BBC's election night music is starting. Getting trauma flashbacks to the general election. 

22:22: A few of you have been in touch about our exit poll. Most of you have been wondering about that one vote for George Galloway but the rest are wondering what happens - under the rules of the London mayoral race (and indeed the contests in Salford, Bristol and Liverpool), 2 votes would not be enough for Sadiq. (He needs 2.5). However, all the other candidates are tied - which makes it through to the second round. What happens then is the second preferences are used as a tie-break. Of the tied candidates, Sian Berry has the most second preferences so she goes through to face Sadiq Khan in the final round. Final round is as follows:

Sadiq Khan: 3

Sian Berry: 2

3 votes is above the quota so he is duly elected. An early omen? 

22:19: Burnham latest. A spokesperson for Andy Burnham says:

"Approaches have been made to Andy Burnham to give consideration to this role. It is early days and no decision as been taken. Whatever the decision, he will continue to serve the leader of the party and stay in the shadow cabinet."

22:17: Anyway, exit poll of the office. We've got:

Sadiq Khan: 2

George Galloway: 1

Caroline Pidgeon: 1

Sian Berry: 1

22:15: Update on Andy Burnham. He has been asked to consider running. More as we get it. 

22:13: People are asking if there's an exit poll tonight. Afraid not (you can't really do an exit poll in elections without national swing). But there is a YouGov poll from Wales and I am conducting an exit poll of the four remaining members of staff in the NS building. 

22:11: It's true! Andy Burnham is considering running for Greater Manchester mayor. Right, that's it, I'm quitting the liveblog. Nothing I say tonight can top that. 

22:09: Rumours that professional Scouser Andy Burnham is considering a bid for Greater Manchester mayor according to Sky News. Not sure if this is a) a typo for Merseyside or b) a rumour or c) honestly I don't know. More as I find out. 

22:06: Conservatives are feeling good about Trafford, one of the few councils they run in the North West.

22:03: Polls have closed. Turnout looks to be low in London. What that means is anyone's guess to be honest. There isn't really a particular benefit to Labour if turnout is high although that is a well-worn myth. In the capital in particular, turnout isn't quite as simple a zero-sum game as all that. Labour are buoyant, but so are the Tories. In Scotland, well, the only questions are whether or not the SNP will win every single first past the post seat or just the overwhelming majority. Both Labour and Tory sources are downplaying their chances of prevailing in the battle for second place at Holyrood, so make of that what you will. And in Wales, Labour look certain to lose seats but remain in power in some kind of coalition deal. 

22:00: Good evening. I'm your host, Stephen Bush, and I'll be with you throughout the night as results come in from throughout the country. The TV screens are on, I've just eaten, and now it's time to get cracking. 

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. He usually writes about politics.