Miliband is a scared man leading a scared party

The Labour leader’s latest speech was easily the weakest he has delivered.

By Dan Hodges Published 23 May 2011 11:02

There was an interesting line in Ed Miliband's speech to Saturday's Progress conference. Analysing the reason for Labour's defeat in the May general election, he said:

Our message, too weighted to fear over hope, stopped the Tories getting a majority. But it was never enough for Labour to win. Because we did not own the future.

I suspect that, when Labour's leader finally hands over to his successor, that may well prove to be his own epitaph.

Miliband is a scared man in charge of a scared party. His latest attempt to set out his political vision, easily the weakest speech he's delivered since he took over from Gordon Brown, cruelly highlighted that fact. The caveats, juxtapositions and abstractions, which have in the past been scattered through his addresses, became so numerous that they created a textual landfill.

Some people Ed spoke to didn't want to listen to Labour. But some did. People liked what they were getting from Labour. But they wanted more from Labour. "Friends," said Ed, "let's avoid the old Labour disease of setting out a false choice. That we must either conclude that the elections were a triumph or a disaster."

OK, Ed, we won't. Instead we'll succumb to that other Labour disease of not making a choice at all.

Contradiction was piled upon contradiction. The need for us to be "asking less of the state" was followed by a call for the state to have a dabble in Cadbury's, Man United and the Dog and Duck. Labour needed to "raise our horizons", yet the Tories were "Maoist" in their drive for change. It was a myth that Britain was a "Conservative" country, but what people yearned for most was "for the institutions and relationships we cherish most to be respected and protected".

One passage was so lacking in self-awareness, I thought it must have been inserted as a joke: "Where are the Tories on the big questions people are asking? Nowhere."

But above all his speech was dominated by one thing. Fear.

An assemblage of ciphers

Miliband knows what he should be doing. Once you got the speech home, poured lemon juice over it, held it up to a candle and broke out your book of centre-left ciphers, you could just make it out. The nod to "the middle-income people in the south of England and elsewhere who don't consider themselves rich even though they may be higher-rate taxpayers". The pronounced wink in the direction of "Blue Labour". The absence of references to the "progressive majority".

But while Miliband knows where he needs to be going, he just doesn't have the confidence to let his party or the country in on the secret. The nods and winks and silences are manifestations of that insecurity: political nervous tics.

Most revealing of all was his section on David Cameron. "There is a second strategy - a Cameron-style detoxification," Miliband said. "I hear the advice to follow this path: find the equivalent of hug a hoodie. Or even a huskie. And that will do it." This would, he said, be "superficial", simply "an exercise in dealing with the negatives".

When Cameron talked about embracing young offenders rather than simply punishing them, it was anything but superficial. The world and the right-wing press went nuts. It was a dramatic statement of how Cameron was trying to rebrand his party, on an issue that he knew would generate a backlash within the Conservatives' own ranks.

Ultimately the signals proved false. Cameron did not have the strength to see the detoxification through. And it was that which cost him the election. His inability to persevere, not his decision to try.

Yet Cameron displayed more political courage with one speech and half a dozen huskies than Miliband has displayed in the entire time he has been Labour leader.

Safe and unsound

Where has Miliband challenged his party? How has Miliband attempted to redefine his party? When did Miliband even attempt to define himself?

Certainly not on Saturday. In fact, he's done it once. Last Wednesday, when he decided to risk the wrath of the liberal intelligensia and called for the sacking of Kenneth Clarke. Remember that? Clarke's sins were so grievous he had to be gone by the end of the day. Nothing less than the safety of the public was at stake.

What did the leader have to say about that outrage in Saturday's speech? Nothing. A deathly silence. His Guardian article of the same day didn't contain a single reference, either.

Miliband is starting to resemble Neil Kinnock in the years before his attack on Militant. He can see the route he needs to follow. He knows the future and that of his party depend on it. But he is trapped by doubts about whom he can convince to follow him. Ultimately, by doubts about himself.

"It will never be enough for us to simply take the traditional paths of oppositions," he said. People waited expectantly to be shown the alternative path they should pursue. And they waited.

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Tags: Ed Miliband

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65 comments

Mon, 2011-05-23 14:58 — DK (not verified)

Ed Miliband has been a disappointment, but thank God Labour has stayed away from the Blairites! A move in that direction, rather than further to the left, would be fatal. Why can't Labour criticize the massively unpopular University reforms? Because the Browne report was a Labour creation. And the same with what's going to be done to National Rail, base on a commission Labour set up. Labour has no platform to stand on now because their policies were already so close to those the Coalition is implementing. We need leadership untainted by Blair, Brown, or Mandelson--a new generation. It might take a few years, and an election loss in four.

Mon, 2011-05-23 15:04 — Chris (not verified)

To all those now slagging Dan off...
Let's see who ends up being right....
You won't be able to say he didn't warn you when Ed crashes and burns...

Mon, 2011-05-23 15:08 — Joel (not verified)

Another bitter article from Dan Hodges, the New Statesman's bitter Blairite.

In the time Ed Miliband has been Labour leader, he has had to put up with constant hostility and personal attacks from the right-wing press but yet has been consistently ahead in the polls. He is not perfect but I prefer him to David and all the other Blairites who think the only way to beat the Tories is to accept almost every Tory policy or attack them from the Right.

The right-wing press would love that but the ordinary member of the public who is concerned about their job prospects, their public services, job security, buying a house, paying their bills, feeding their families etc would not be enthusiastic about a permanent small state, workers' rights being eroded, big cutbacks in welfare and social security which is what makes them and the Tories salivate.

As for policy, when Cameron was leader of the opposition he did not talk about specific policy until the last few months of the parliament in the build up to the General Election, so therefore Ed Miliband is right to keep his powder dry and talk about themes than make a load of empty promises.

Also I think Ed Miliband is deliberatey avoiding making big policies and/or spending commitments as he has seen what has happened to Nick Clegg over the VAT rise, EMA and tuition fees. By not promising much now, people can not accuse him of telling lies, building their hopes up or making empty promises.

I watched Ed Miliband on BBC Breakfast and on other programmes giving interviews and he generally talks a lot of sense on issues of housing, immigration, wages, living standards, job security and other things that effect people directly in their everyday lives. Sio therefore people should give him a chance before jumping on his back to give him a kicking. The only people who would benefit from another Labour leadership contest are the Tories.

As for you Dan, if you cant stand the fact that your man lost, go and join the Tories. The Labour party is better off without people like you and your fellow bitter Blairites.

Mon, 2011-05-23 15:28 — Andy G (not verified)

Whatever Ed Miliband does it's going to be wrong as far as this blogger is concerned. What he says doesn't resonate with me at all. If you feel this badly about the Labour Party why not leave?

Mon, 2011-05-23 15:53 — Lou (not verified)

@Marcus,

I couldn't agree with you more.

@Chris.

I don't concur with Dan generally and I don't agree with the majority of this article. The only point I concur with is this comment of his, 'How has Miliband attempted to redefine his party? When did Miliband even attempt to define himself'

I'm no Blairite and I'm no supporter of Dan's views on the whole.

Mon, 2011-05-23 16:09 — Dan Hodges (not verified)

Droll, Keir.

Thu, 2011-05-26 17:40 — Ricardo (not verified)

It never ceases to amaze me just how delusional some Labour members are about Ed Miliband.

We wont win an election under his leadership. How can you possibly not see this?

Mon, 2011-05-23 16:41 — Scotty

@ marcus and the other left whingers on here

I agree totally, the labour party should move even more towards being openly socialist and left whinge, that will show up the maoist baby eating tories for what they are - in the real world and prepared to face the hard decisions now necessary due to labours economic and structural governence incompetence.

Millie's problem is exactly as this article states - he has no ideas, no policies except no to anything the coalition propose and he has no courage and no morals - unlike the real mandela and kings' of the world who millie wants to be compared with, but he is more likely to be compared to marx, of the groucho style.

Wed, 2011-05-25 07:01 — Luddite (not verified)

Let's be under no illusions, uncontrolled mass-immigration along with Labour appalling wars cost Labour the election. These two issues alone proved disastrous, but it didn't end there. Labour pumped billions into eduction only to see standards fall. We saw no meaningful reforms in the NHS, pay for some rocketed productivity fell. Human rights became a dirty word. Multiculturalism a catastrophic failure, all this before we even mention the economy and Labour's appalling deficit. Ed's last speech blar blar blar.

Tue, 2011-05-31 12:12 — LD Lawrence (not verified)

The attacks on Dan by people longing for the days of Hattersley are growing repetitive.

Ed's problem isn't his policies. Indeed, his problem is that he has no policies and no vision. He ran on a 'clean slate' and leads with the same clean, blank slate. The dream that Ed is the Labour leader who will restore Labour to being the party of Attlee and Hardie exists only in the minds of his supporters.

Take his position on civil liberties. It's a joke that he wants to restore Labour's commitment to them. He may not have liked to have mention it, but this is the same Ed who voted in favour of 90 days detention.

At least David Miliband -despite his Blairite baggage- managed to have some backbone and defended the decisions he took in government.

Wed, 2011-05-25 08:03 — Hal Berstram (not verified)

Complete and utter balderdash from Dan, who only a few weeks ago, was helping Dave Cameron do well in the local elections by designing utterly misleading (if effective) ads for the Labour No2AV campaign. Dan Hodges is the most obvious Tory plant in Labour politics. His blog strapline should really be swapped with Christopher Montgomery (who hasn't posted since the end of February, which leads me to believe they are in fact one and the same person).

Mon, 2011-05-23 17:09 — Dc_lawrence (not verified)

Ed's problem is that socialism is outdated and out of touch,while Blairism is unpopular (even though blairite is exactly what cameron is). Ed needs to focus on something that captures the imagination of the public, in the same way that Atlee, Thatcher and Blair did. He should choose something like manufacturing or education and persuade the country that that is the only solution and Labour is the only option. That's the way Labour can win back the people.
Not clever speeches or poor speeches, but a real solution.

Mon, 2011-05-23 17:25 — Joel (not verified)

@ Dc_lawrence
"Ed needs to focus on something that captures the imagination of the public, in the same way that Atlee, Thatcher and Blair did."

Thatcher capture the imagination of the public???!!! I dont think so. If it was not for the Labour-SDP split in 1981 which divided the opposition against her and the Falklands war, she would have been a one-term wonder as she was the most reviled, divisive and heartless PM the country has ever had.

Mon, 2011-05-23 17:25 — Nic

"people seem to have already made up their mind about Miliband."

where is the proof that people have made up their mind? I keep reading this assertion, but where is the proof? Dan Hodges and the other critics do not represent the 'people'.

Mon, 2011-05-23 18:27 — Andy G (not verified)

Dan Hodges reminds me of the type of Democrats Fox News are always keen to give a platform to i.e the ones that hardly ever have a good word to say about their own party.

Mon, 2011-05-23 18:42 — Martin (not verified)

"I had no idea Mr Hodges campaigned for the other Miliband. I can't quite see how this alters the points in the piece, which I for one recognise."

I presume these people are Labour members/activists. It's actually quite depressing that these people think it's a clever idea to dismiss any criticism by hurling abuse instead of producing an argument. A credit to your party and your leader. I'm very impressed.

Mon, 2011-05-23 18:36 — Martin (not verified)

"Yawn, another tedious, invective filled article"

The responses - like yours - are by contrast entirely free of bile, invective and ad hominemn insults.

Mon, 2011-05-23 18:59 — Andy (not verified)

Miliband is like a swotty fifth former and regularly gets his head pushed down the loo by headboy Cameron. He is in denial, an illegal war and debt fuelled boom are the New Labour legacy.

Mon, 2011-05-23 19:17 — stevem1

Sounds like another New Labour wonk. let me tell you Dan - the party needs another Blair like it needs a hole in the head. We have nothing to learn from Thatcher or Blair. Following them gave us 30 years plus of Washington Consensus.That is why we are in the position we are. There has not been a better time since 1945 for someone to espouse social democratic policies. The countries with the highest living standards are those with high taxation and generous social benefits. We are falling behind the Germans and the French who both have higher taxes,better benefits are more socially cohesive. These points are never put before the public.It,s time they were.

Mon, 2011-05-23 19:31 — historybuff

Pity the party elected a man that looks like a claymation figure from that Grummit movie as leader.
As anyone in the party heard of the word 'charisma'? This guy has about as much of as a cold cup of tea.

Mon, 2011-05-23 19:46 — Chris (not verified)

@Martin

"The responses - like yours - are by contrast entirely free of bile, invective and ad hominemn insults."

Get a sense of perspective, pal, have I been writing articles every week for the past 7 months moaning about anything and everything Dan Hodges does? Nope, I don't comment very much but that is exactly what Mr Hodges has been doing, since last September not a week goes by without some snotty attack by him on Miliband.

Mon, 2011-05-23 20:12 — hugh markey (not verified)

When faced with the 'Nips' Big John, and I do mean all 6 foot 5 inches of that Republican cowboy, Wayne invariably soothed any raw recruit who admitted to being afraid with the words: "Gee, Son! We're all scared. It's only natural!" { This was a scene in a movie ]
Before his first title fight with 'The Greatest' Sonny LIston was scared of 'nuttin'. M. Ali, then known by his slave and boxing name as Cassius Clay, acted like a frightened chicken.
The White Folks was afraid Cassius wouldn't show much less make a fight of it.
From a political viewpoint. Herr HItler overflowed with confidence.
Mr Taft could almost taste the presidency.
Winnie was appalled at the ingratitude of an electorate for whom he'd fought the war.
Nixon - the only certain bet in Las Vegas to lose - triumphed twice.
Tony Blair thrashed all parliamentary opposition - even carrying Big Buffoon Hague for a round or two until the odds stacked up.
Yet, Blair stepped out of his class in the catch-weigh contest with Christopher Hitchens.
Just ask Dave "Hardman" Davis who won the civil war in his party? "We wuz robbed! And it ain't over yet" A sore loser who was ultra-macho-confident bustin' before the play-off. "Don't count your chickens......"

Keep Punching

Sun, 2011-05-29 00:39 — Geraint (not verified)

The attacks on Ed by the bitter Blairites are getting extremely dull and boring.

Mon, 2011-05-23 20:50 — mary8

I have just read the transcript of Ed Miliband's Promise of Britain speech. It makes far more sense to me than the Big Society Relaunch.

Mon, 2011-05-23 21:50 — Jim (not verified)

"Contradiction was piled upon contradiction."

Sounds like a progressive supporting the fucking cancer that is FPTP.

*cough* Dan Hodges *cough*

Sun, 2011-05-29 09:53 — Retnan (not verified)

"to enable people to be free from the need to work 40 hours a week, to be free from state welfare. And it's really easy to do if the circumstances are right"

Wow you can not work and not be on welfare and still not starve to death? That's news to me cuckolander.

Tue, 2011-05-24 10:41 — Dan Hodges (not verified)

Stevern,

"Following them gave us 30 years plus of Washington Consensus".

It also gave us 13 years of a Labour government.

Tue, 2011-05-24 11:10 — Don Gately (not verified)

I wouldn't support a leader in tune with Hodges politics but I think his analysis of Ed's leadership is spot on. The sad thing is that I thought Ed was the best candidate standing for labour leader and still do.

That's the major problem Labour have to face. The domination of blair and brown trampled the rest of the party. The only senior politicians left were those who got on with the PMs and even the leading younger politicians seem to be managerial types who are loyal followers rather than anyone likely to challenge and lead.

Labour need to stand for something and at present just blindly look backwards in order to defend a (percieved) poor record and oppose opportunistically. This has to change but I can't see ed doing that

Tue, 2011-05-24 11:25 — Neville Peters (not verified)

Same old dull, anti-Ed, Blairite sour grapes.

Tue, 2011-05-24 11:32 — John Phelan (not verified)

Labour are doomed with young Miliband at the helm

Tue, 2011-05-24 12:26 — david mcgookin (not verified)

Is that the last post i can hear?This is great socialism is dying!

Wed, 2011-05-25 16:06 — thinkov

Hodges is tediously misinformed

Tue, 2011-05-24 16:01 — thinkov

don't see any personality in the party at all
harder to find a personality than a socialist
Ed Is doing a good job

no one else is it needs more than a party leader to make a party

Mon, 2011-05-23 11:36 — Mr. Divine (not verified)

The Labour Party does not have a long term vision for the future. They are just tweaking the system rather than trying to fundamentally change it. Their aims are intertwined with the Conservatives and so that's why don't get a confident distinct Labour voice: they partly agree with the Tories. That's why they sound scared.

If you look at Germany it is quite clear that the left are committed to ecological policies. The UK Labour Party should be studying the Greens in Germany to give them a higher moral direction. This will enable them to speak with conviction and ultimately to win votes.

Mon, 2011-05-23 11:46 — Mr. Divine (not verified)

Part of Labour thinks it's all about jobs and fair wages and protecting jobs. But it's not. Most people work because they want the money, not because they like what they are doing, day in day out.

Labour should be looking at policies that will enable people to be free of the work/welfare system: to enable people to be free from the need to work 40 hours a week, to be free from state welfare. And it's really easy to do if the circumstances are right.

Communal ecological housing projects of about 15 houses should be set up by government.

Mon, 2011-05-23 11:49 — Matthew Evans (not verified)

Dan Hodges should learn that being unpleasant is no subsitute for writing ability. Although the New statesman obviously thinks it is, otherwise they wouldn't publish this rubbish.

Mon, 2011-05-23 12:02 — Benedict (not verified)

Dan Hodges is a giant walking gallbladder incontinently seeping bile.

Mon, 2011-05-23 12:15 — luke (not verified)

This guy, Dan, is genuinely clueless. He is like the tebbit of the labour party but with even less charm.

From the picture he looks like a young guy, yet politically he seems totally dated. Stuck in the past.

Mon, 2011-05-23 12:18 — Marcus (not verified)

Dan, do you think Ed Miliband will still be the leader at the next election?

I believe Labour will cut him for his brother 18 months before the next election in order to try to gain an upswing.

I no longer think the jury is out on Ed Miliband. I believe people have already made their minds up.

Labour cannot win on this ticket.

Mon, 2011-05-23 12:30 — stanley (not verified)

Dan, when the only people who are agreeing with you are journos from the express, do you think you've passed outside the mainstream a bit?

Mon, 2011-05-23 12:31 — Jane (not verified)

You are again so right. I find it all disheartening. I listened to his brother from Islamabad on AM yesterday. Oh dear - what we have lost. I am tired of soundbites - that is all we are getting. I thought the article in the Independent was pathetic as did many of those who commented. I agree with Marcus above people have made up their minds and sadly, I do not think thaey can be unmade.

Mon, 2011-05-23 12:34 — Nic

Even if there is a grain of truth in this article I can't ignore the author's bias. In other words, I'd take it more seriously had it not been written by a tedious Blairite still bitter that his man David didn't win.

Tue, 2011-05-24 21:05 — Luddite (not verified)

Let's be honest here Ed's crap!!
Ed took charge of the AV campaign, a disaster. Ed's Scottish campaign catastrophic. Ed's English local election effort the tories won!!

Mon, 2011-05-23 12:41 — John (not verified)

Dan Hodges wasted several months of his life campaigning for D Miliband. He's just bitter, pls don't hate him.

Mon, 2011-05-23 12:45 — David Evershed (not verified)

If it's self confidence Ed Miliband lacks, is this because he went to comprehensive rather than public school?

Should Labour choose a public school leader next time, like Blair?

Tue, 2011-05-24 21:32 — Joel (not verified)

@ Luddite
"Ed took charge of the AV campaign, a disaster. Ed's Scottish campaign catastrophic. Ed's English local election effort the tories won!!"

What rubbish!

On the AV campaign, people voted no to give Nick Clegg a kicking, not because of Ed Miliband

On the Scottish campaign, that was mostly out of his hand as Iain Gray is very unpopular in Scotland.

As for the English local elections, Labour gained 857 seats, their third highest number of gains on a local election night. What the right-wing media willingly ignore is that they made a lot of progress in the Midlands and the East of England where there a lot of key marginal seats. It was not perfect but it was decent progress from 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2010.

Mon, 2011-05-23 13:02 — Lou (not verified)

And David M would do better would he? He'd talk the talk but who will listen, too many overtures of Blair to be given a chance. He's gone. Get over it.

Labour should stop all this Red Labour, Blue Labour, squeezed middle Labour, progressive Labour, Liberal Labour etc etc ad nauseum - and just get back to being bloody Labour. Then they might stop looking like headless chickens running round with no direction and the wider electorate might start showing more interest in the message.

Tue, 2011-05-24 22:00 — Luddite (not verified)

Joel. Ed's a washout, and stop pretending otherwise.

Fri, 2011-05-27 12:51 — alan5

We have had it with the Blairit
David lost THE PEOPLE NOT THE PARTY ELITE

Mon, 2011-05-23 13:05 — Chris (not verified)

Yawn, another tedious, invective filled article. You must stop yearning for your lost leader, face it you and Dave blew it. You had all the money, media backing and your own precognitive gift; yet you still ran a shit campaign which failed to do anything other than remind people how much they loathed Tony Blair. Now you're just bitching from the sidelines like Norman Tebbit.