Osborne's feeble response to the growth crisis
You can't fault the Chancellor's chutzpah. But his growth strategy is paper thin.
By George Eaton Published 03 October 2011 14:28
As ever, George Osborne summoned a special chutzpah for his speech to the Conservative conference. In the midst of a growth crisis, he warned that "we should not talk ourselves into something worse", as if he had never spread the myth that Britain was on the "brink of bankruptcy". He insisted that the government could not afford to borrow a billion more to stimulate the economy, forgetting that he announced £46bn of extra borrowing at the Budget. And he hailed the "precious stability" that his deficit reduction plan had brought, failing to mention that it left us with a lower growth rate than every G7 country except Japan.
"Don't tell me this government isn't going for growth," the Chancellor snapped, taking a swipe at Labour and Conservative critics alike. But there were few signs of a change of gear. Osborne's response to the growth crisis? A re-announced £805m council tax freeze that will do nothing to cancel the damage wrought by his £12bn VAT rise.
The Chancellor's wager is that loose monetary policy (interest rates and the exchange rate) will compensate for tight fiscal policy (spending cuts and tax rises). He was clearer than ever on this point today. "We are fiscal conservatives and monetary activists," he declared.
The biggest difficulty for the government is that Osborne has few monetary weapons at his disposal. Interest rates are already at record lows and the exchange rate has fallen sharply since the crisis began in 2008. By contrast, after the savage cuts of the 1981 Budget, Geoffrey Howe was able to loosen the money supply by cutting interest rates by 2 per cent. Insofar as the government has a plan B, it is for further quantitative easing (QE). But with the cost of unsecured loans significantly higher than before the crisis, it is far from certain that another monetary injection will have the desired effect. Today, Osborne promised to begin "credit easing" - government lending to small businesses - a tacit admission that Project Merlin - the government's much-vaunted agreement with the banks - has failed.
It was telling that the most effective passages in his speech were not on the economy but on politics. Like his predecessor, the Chancellor is never happier than when identifying a dividing line (see Rafael's blog for more on this) or a partisan jibe. He quipped that Labour had ceased to be a "producer or a predator", one of the best attack lines of the conference season. He rebuked Vince Cable, who described some Tories as the "ideological descendants of those who sent children up chimneys", by noting that it was a Conservative who abolished the practice and that the Liberals objected. And he described Manchester as the city where Rutherford split the atom and the Miliband brothers split the Labour Party (a decent gag by his standards).
Unlike Cable, who spoke only of "grey skies" in his speech, Osborne ended by turning his gaze to the sunlit uplands, "the calmer, brighter seas beyond". Channeling Jim Morrison, he insisted that we would "ride out the storm together". One can only respond, not with your plan, we won't.
Latest tweets
More from New Statesman
- Online writers:
- Steven Baxter
- Rowenna Davis
- David Allen Green
- Mehdi Hasan
- Nelson Jones
- Gavin Kelly
- Helen Lewis
- Laurie Penny
- The V Spot
- Alex Hern
- Martha Gill
- Alan White
- Samira Shackle
- Alex Andreou
- Nicky Woolf in America
- Bim Adewunmi
- Glosswitch
- Kate Mossman on pop
- Ryan Gilbey on Film
- Martin Robbins
- Rafael Behr
- Eleanor Margolis
- Tools and services:
- Polls
- Predictions
- Archive
- Magazine
- PDF edition
- RSS feeds
- Advertising
- Subscribe
- Special supplements
- Stockists




















34 comments
hehe
no actual ideas then , just attacks on 'right wingers', detremined by the fact that they don't suscribe to EVERYTHING the labour party says...
@hal
£350Bn borrowing by Labour before 2008 still has to be repaid. The cost of a debt needs to be measured against the availability of funds to repay it - so where is the money to repay it?
"The national debt is not a burden"
Are you a space cadet - what planet are you on? The £350Bn borrowed by Labour is enough to pay for 2 Japanese earth quakes or to install sustainable power in the UK so that we are a net exporter of power. However, the money was not invested but spent growing the public sector resulting in the UKs biggest peace time deficit.
Tell me what we got for the £350Bn and how it will generate the income stream to repay the interest and the capital. Then your statement "a necessary part of the economy" will be justified.
... "The interest payments are minimal, currently about 3%"
Only because the UK has AAA. Without servicing the debt it would be nearer to 6% with an AA.
You are not credible if you think the interest on servicing the national debt is a trifle albiet that is what you are indicating.
Indu Pendent, I thought you didn't believe in the " State Fairy ".
All this smacks on state intervention Indu Pendent, the government picking winners and losers.
I take it Project Ivanhoe, sorry I mean't Merlin, is now defunct? The Bankers get their bonuses without having to lend to SME's?
Have you been able to find the evidence showing Lagarde and the credit rating agencies criticising public sector pensions, or am I in for a long wait.
Cameron's revised speech has given the whole debt discussion a new context surely. Tory policy seems motivated purely by ideology and they are mired in 1920s pre-Keynes economic illiteracy.
Am I the only one that thinks Cameron's original point was quite interesting though. Obviously if people followed his instructions the economy would go into a huge contraction, but on th eother hand is racking up huge personal debt really a serious economic policy?
http://representingthemambo.wordpress.com/2011/10/05/might-flashman-have...
It should be the state being th enegine of growth, not unsustainable personal debt, surely.
The government should increase borrowing. Fast. The only thing that will get us out of this recessionary mess is a large public works stimulus. Let's get the unused capacity doing something useful - how about building houses, schools and renewable energy generating capacity?
@matt
Foxy, everything you read in those books your friends give you is not actually real you know. Like magic fiscal stimulus powder and the credible fiscal magician. The bit about using the PR machine to make up magic words to entrance descent people is true though.
"All this smacks on state intervention Indu Pendent, the government picking winners and losers"
Absolutely. Bring it on.
Labour only understands fiscal corruption and borrowing massively to pay short term hand outs to voters to propel Labour to power.
What the coalition is doing is supply side management which Labour doesn't even have in its little red dictionary. It opens up a huge ideological chasm between Labour and the coalition.
Rather than the old Labour way of abusing public money to buy off voters by simplistic fiscal stimulus and waisting money sucking in imports, the coalition's approach is to use relatively small amounts of public money strategically for long term support of UK makers: the coalition are completely aligning themselves with the national interest. Its unlikely to make the coalition popular but it supports the next generation which is what I want.
What I am hearing is the government are looking at forming a regulated state bank providing UK industry with cheap capital and debt finance often to substite for venture capital. Fantastic! Labour could have done it if it was the party of business and the elite did not look down so much at grubby UK makers.
@Ivan White
The UK should have been better prepared for the credit crisis but Labour borrowed massively before 2008 and weakened the economy.
So why blame Ed (swaggers in a starched uniform)?
May be its because Ed is a close comrade of Gordon and they worked closely together on Gordon's PR message and plan for the economy? e.g. Gordon would consult Ed rather than talking to Alistair on the economy. This seems to have upset Alistair.
"is beyond comprehension " - its OK we are patient. The penny will drop eventually.
The government borrowed very little before 2008, so the debt/GDP ratio was much lower than in 1997. There's even a plausible case to make that the lack of government debt in the banking system led to the instability of the banks manifested in the 2008 crisis.
Now the debt level is heading back up to historically more normal levels but it would be better if the government actually bought something with the money rather than just handing it out as bank bail-outs, tax cuts for corporations and unemployment benefits.
@hal
"The government borrowed very little before 2008"
Can you speak out of both sides of your mouth?
Office of National Statistics figures showing the raw government debt are useful. See the summary table M1:
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/psa/eu-government-debt-and-def...
Government debt during Labour's term before adjusting for inflation and before the impact of the bank crisis show debt nearly doubling under the last government. To this needs to be added the increase of debt of individuals to assess the impact of the last government's effectiveness at managing the economy.
Government debt under the last government was:
1998 £410, 000, 000, 000
1999 £405 Bn
2000 £400 Bn
2001 £385 Bn
2002 £402 Bn
2003 £441 Bn
2004 £487 Bn
2005 £529 Bn
2006 £573 Bn
2007 £618 Bn
2008 £752 Bn
After 2008 government debt was boosted by the financial crisis - underwriting the accumulated liability for the government's guarenttee of the banks which steadily grew over the term of the last government. It means the above figures understate the true debt loaded on to our kids.
Its obscene of Balls to say the national debt fell under Labour or that Labour did not cause the national debt to risk massively.
There will never be any freedom for the British people, whilst ever the usual old 3 political parties are allowed to run Britain like they are doing at the moment and have been doing for the past 50 years of lies and deceit; as each party awaits their turn to rule!
The whole political stage is just being used to play out a gigantic act, hoodwinking the population by holding back vast sums of money, huge amounts of British tax-payers just lying in the British coffers, or banks gathering interest, banks that are most probably under strict orders not the loan out to British business ventures, whilst the like of Osbourne and Balls continue to pull the wool over the eyes of the population, as did these political con men tricked the British people into the undemocratic EU; that in reality almost everyone wishes to kick into touch!
The majority of British politicians if the truth was known, are in my opinion; sworn 'New World Freaks'! Freaks that are striving for a one world governing state, ran from Brussels, with them 'our glorious leaders' having their share of unrestricted control and in fact will do all in their power to restrain the British people from developing any major money-making industry any which way they can. They don't want Britain for any other purpose than a huge holding area for cheap readily available workers, that can be drafted to any given area of the new world state!
Just looking at the total debt is misleading. You have to take into account the growth of the economy. If the debt doubles, and the size of the economy doubles, there is no problem!
The figure to quote is the ratio of debt to GDP. In 1997 this was around 42%, in 2007 around 36%. So as I said, the government did not overspend before 2008. It actually spent so little it didn't even keep up with growth in the economy.
Figures on www.ukpublicspending.co.uk
The national debt is not a burden. It is in fact a necessary part of the economy. Government debt is an essential part of the capital holdings of banks and pension providers. The interest payments are minimal, currently about 3% of GDP, in fact LOWER than nearly the whole of the 20th century!!!
Osborne wants the government to lend money to SME.
I thought Project Merlin guaranteed lending to SME's. Not only are the bankers getting their bonuses, the taxpayer now has to be lender of last resort.
@ Ivan White, I Don't care what job Ed Ball's did, he was still a key player and much more than that in Gordon Brown's Goverment! we are not going to let him off the hook that easily, and that has far more relevance then some people here who mention Margaret Thatcher when speaking of David Cameron, he was a teenage boy when she was Prime minister, so therefore he was not in her goverment so would not be blamed for the things she got wrong, unlike Mr Balls. would you link Ed miliband with Michael Foot, no you would not you would say that was ages ago, although Ed Miliband prehaps can be let off the hook as he was only a very junior minister at the time, Like it or not if Mr Miliband wishes for his new start then mr Ball's needs to go, and i like Ed Miliband.
No jokes about sticky fingers or lads mags pages stuck together?
I wonder why.
I was really disappointed. I expected a lot more. Business rates need to be looked at in order to stay competitive with Ireland.
Osborne has said that you cannot borrow your way out of debt. But job losses and the combination of lower tax receipts and benefit payouts, directly resulting from his current programme of cuts can well see the Tory coalition borrowing their way into stagnation or worse.
George Eaton, you have been spending too much time with Ed Ball's! The man who helped us obtain this crisis, which is a dept crisis not a growth crisis, a lack of growth that has happened because of the dept crisis but we must never forget the cause, Labour, The banks and Europe, And you can never spend your way out of a dept crisis!
Prehaps you will also be interested to know that Standard and Poor, the credit company that was going to decrease our credit rating but changed it's mind at the very beginning of this parliament has just reaffirmed our AAA rating for now but has said it would reconsider if the goverment backed away from it's commitment to fiscal austerity.
Mr Eaton please share that information with your good friend and deceiver Ed Balls who said we had money after they spent it all and who also said these tough measures were not needed, using the dept crisis to play political motivated games is very wrong and so beneath the decent,hardworking people in the Labour party, but the member's of your goverment have been that for many years And why Mr Ball's have you or Mr Miliband not bothered to mention that much about Europe last week,you cannot run this country like a large parish council forgetting the outside world! we have just heard that Greece cannot keep it's deficit requirement that was needed for more bailouts from europe, greece cannot pay it's way in the world and nor could we if we follow Mr Ball's deficit reduction plan and you cannot have growth with reducing your deficit or the growth will be on sand! Standard and poor's reaction also proves who is heading in the right direction,so how about a little truth from the Labour Party.
@george
Have you forgotten already ... the UK has already tried simplistic fiscal expansion - huge borrowing for the synical manipulation of voters.
hal
'Just looking at the total debt is misleading. You have to take into account the growth of the economy. If the debt doubles, and the size of the economy doubles, there is no problem!'
hahahahaha...fatastic stuff Hal.
So what happens when the tax take collapses?? i.e. the economy slows- it's not all straight lines in nature. There is a cycle to life, to economies 9unless, ahem, u've managed to abolish those cycles that govern nature lol). These are inescapable laws of physics (at least in the gross world.
Very funny though, the economu doubles so twice the debt is ok... genius quote, encapsulate everything.
Hey, if get a payrise shall i go out and double my debt? oh no?
And the best one, regarding repaying debt;
' undesirable as it is an important part of the financial system.'
hahahahaha very good, genius.
Seriously though, I think might be a debt junkie. You can't see a UK without debt?
Well, that's your view, and Im entitled to mine right, it being a democracy- So hear this- I and many others don't want our kids growing up paying for bullshit vote buying programmes so clown politicians could stay in power... and there is a growing number of people who are seeing things my way, that's one thing u can bank on. You might enjoy the feeling of always being the servant of the markets, not for me pal.
Another incompetent effort at understanding politics and economics by troll Stu. I giggle every time his name comes up.
When Alistair Darling was considering credit easing for SMEs in 2009, Osborne called it "the last resort of a desperate government."
Good to know he hasn't lost his self-awareness since entering government.
Ed Balls has a plan?!?!? if he did he didn't say a SINGLE word about it, his friggin 5 point plan was supposed to be the answer to growth... The Tories have showed him up. As I said Labour's conference should have concentrated on the real issue... MONEY! they failed only because they don't have any policies.
Were you listening to the same speech as I was. I thought the speech was vaccuous and lacked substance. The Greek people will never be able to pay the debts enforced upon them by the Germans and French. The only real bold initiative is to wipe the slate clean. Since the creditors will never accede this default request, the Euro zone, including the UK is likely to remain in recessionary mode for years to come. The debate about Britain having its own currency and therefore immune from Eurozone woes is completely besides the point. The deficit reduction programme of boy George is more likely than not to lengthen the time the UK remains in recessionary mode. The crass insistence on deficit reduction proves how limited Osbourne’s understanding is of elementary A level economics. I wager that more gloomy times lie ahead for the Uk economy. I do not anticipate any sort of recovery until at least 2020. It is cleat George Eaton that you do not understand Economics. I feel sure that were you to offer me a job I could do a btter job of dissecting the Osborne economic plan (or lack of it)!!!!!
The only plan GO has is deficit reduction, no matter what the cost to families up and down the land. The irony in all this is that the deficit has gone up rather than down under GO. Where is the logic in implementing an austere deficit redcution programme when all your competitors are doing the same. SHeer madness and lunacy and yet the Tory faithful lap it up!!!!!!
We are trying a " Contractionary Fiscal Expension " at the moment, and it's not working.
I see Indu Pendent is ignoring the latest manufacturing data, orders for exports, are at their lowest since May 2009. Manufacturing is also shedding jobs.
@mcquade
See the link below, it is also from 2009, Osborne was going to ban " Large Bank Bonuses " and make them use the money for new lending.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/oct/26/george-osborne-bank-bonus...
so to sum up chaps, bedrock of the left, the source from which inspiration is drawn, osbourne should bprrow mpre.
Ok, let's look at that. How would things look with interest rates a couple of percent higher, genuine question. Remember when answering the question that our debt is the biggest one ...
Seriously, if everyone is si bloody clever, let's heat the ideas
Hold on a minute, according to neoliberal Conservative ideology the state should be stepping back and letting the private sector takeover.
With credit easing, Osborne is admitting a market failure and backing private businesses with (our) public money. Even giving the banks our money directly has not encouraged them to lend. This is nothing short of a socialist policy.
Funny how there was no similar guarantees for Sheffield Forgemasters or contracts for Bombardier. Could it be the government don't really want large manufacturing in this country as they are the backbone of union membership?
Another avalanche of right wing nonsense from the usual people. Anybody in their right mind knows Osborne is well out of his depth and today was another example.
So this is it. All that he can come up with, anything rather than lose face. Come on George (Osborne) bury your pride and get round the table with Ed Balls.
Hahahah
@matt
Foxy, you never did answer the question: should the coalition increase or decrease borrowing.
Did you like Osbourne's speech - it was credible. It got strong worlwide press coverage as a lot of people follow what he has to say. Did you notice that few people out side of Labour were interested in anything Ed Balls up had to say and have already forgotten it?
I see Osborne is implementing David Blanchflowers good idea of providing cheap finance to UK industry ... no Labour hand outs targted at manipulating voter preferences. It wont make the coalition popular but it will help reduce the deficit - fully understand the left's criticism.
Have you seen Japan's manufacturing data? They are having a torrid time, worse than the UK which is holding up relatively well given the World economy.
The latest data coming out of UK retail is looking bad - there are many retailers who grew under the last government on the back of peddling imports, the demand for which is falling as people start to pay debts down rather than borrow more.
Mrs M L Bonwick-Jones. For your information, Ed Balls was Education Secretary from 2007 to 2010. Why you should be blaming him for the global credit crisis is beyond comprehension - rather like most of the drivel that you post.
http://cuttingedgeuk.proboards.com/index.cgi
@Hal
Excellent comments, now all you have to do is every time indu copy/pastes his economically illiterate rants under every story on this site you have to copy/paste your above replies. It'll be quite hard to keep up with him as he has either a very boring life with a hell of a lot of time on his hands or he is a paid troll.
@Indu, the national debt has been with us for 350 years now. It is never repaid; this would be both practically impossible and also undesirable as it is an important part of the financial system.
The interest payments, currently at 3% of GDP are low, and sustainable indefinitely. For example, in 1985, during the Thatcher years, the interest on the national debt was 4.5% of GDP. Was that a problem then?
This is completely a non-problem. Instead we should be worrying about worryingly high levels of unemployment and the fact that the economic recovery has run out of steam. What we need is strategies to restart the recovery and use the spare capacity in the economy to good effect.