Boris fires a warning shot at Cameron over police cuts

Cameron looked uneasy as Boris vowed not to let police numbers fall below a "safe" level.

Boris Johnson's speech to the Conservative conference wasn't one of his most memorable. The hall was half empty (security arrangements delayed many) and there were fewer jokes than usual. But the London Mayor fired a notable warning shot at David Cameron over police cuts. He vowed that he would "not allow police numbers to fall below a number that I believe is safe and reasonable". As Boris made his pledge, the camera cut to Cameron, who looked distinctly uneasy, unable to join in with the applause from the floor.

But with this exception, the Mayor kept his powder dry. He did not repeat his attack on the 50p tax rate (one of his favourite dividing lines with Cameron), merely stressing the need for the "right tax and regulatory framework." He knowingly added, "I will say no more than that". Elsewhere, he praised the "much-maligned banks" for helping to support apprenticeship schemes in London but went no further in his defence of the "leper colony".

Yet even with fewer rhetorical pyrotechnics, Boris still charmed the hall. He repeated his amusing quip about calling a "snap Olympics" to "catch the world napping". He vowed to "recapture" the 18 Boris bikes that had gone missing. And, borrowing a Gandhian trope, he repeatedly promised to "put the village back in the city", a sentiment that seemed to resonate with the delegates. By the end, Cameron could not help looking slightly envious.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

Ukip's Nigel Farage and Paul Nuttall. Photo: Getty
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Is the general election 2017 the end of Ukip?

Ukip led the way to Brexit, but now the party is on less than 10 per cent in the polls. 

Ukip could be finished. Ukip has only ever had two MPs, but it held an outside influence on politics: without it, we’d probably never have had the EU referendum. But Brexit has turned Ukip into a single-issue party without an issue. Ukip’s sole remaining MP, Douglas Carswell, left the party in March 2017, and told Sky News’ Adam Boulton that there was “no point” to the party anymore. 

Not everyone in Ukip has given up, though: Nigel Farage told Peston on Sunday that Ukip “will survive”, and current leader Paul Nuttall will be contesting a seat this year. But Ukip is standing in fewer constituencies than last time thanks to a shortage of both money and people. Who benefits if Ukip is finished? It’s likely to be the Tories. 

Is Ukip finished? 

What are Ukip's poll ratings?

Ukip’s poll ratings peaked in June 2016 at 16 per cent. Since the leave campaign’s success, that has steadily declined so that Ukip is going into the 2017 general election on 4 per cent, according to the latest polls. If the polls can be trusted, that’s a serious collapse.

Can Ukip get anymore MPs?

In the 2015 general election Ukip contested nearly every seat and got 13 per cent of the vote, making it the third biggest party (although is only returned one MP). Now Ukip is reportedly struggling to find candidates and could stand in as few as 100 seats. Ukip leader Paul Nuttall will stand in Boston and Skegness, but both ex-leader Nigel Farage and donor Arron Banks have ruled themselves out of running this time.

How many members does Ukip have?

Ukip’s membership declined from 45,994 at the 2015 general election to 39,000 in 2016. That’s a worrying sign for any political party, which relies on grassroots memberships to put in the campaigning legwork.

What does Ukip's decline mean for Labour and the Conservatives? 

The rise of Ukip took votes from both the Conservatives and Labour, with a nationalist message that appealed to disaffected voters from both right and left. But the decline of Ukip only seems to be helping the Conservatives. Stephen Bush has written about how in Wales voting Ukip seems to have been a gateway drug for traditional Labour voters who are now backing the mainstream right; so the voters Ukip took from the Conservatives are reverting to the Conservatives, and the ones they took from Labour are transferring to the Conservatives too.

Ukip might be finished as an electoral force, but its influence on the rest of British politics will be felt for many years yet. 

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