Conference 2010 Lookahead | Tuesday 5 October

The who, when and where of today's Conservative party conference.

Look out for

Today's big speech will be from Iain Duncan Smith this afternoon at 14:30. Following George Osborne's announcement yesterday that universal child benefit would be cut, he will be under pressure to articulate his plan for the future of the entire benefit system. Critics of the child benefit cut, including from within the Conservative Party and the right-wing media, have called for the cut to be "softened", so Duncan Smith's response today will be closely scrutinised for signs of this.

In addition, David Cameron hinted in an interview this morning that child benefit would not be included in the planned "universal credit", as it would be tantamount to a "means testing system for every single family in the country", where as Iain Duncan Smith has previously suggested that child benefit would be part of the universal credit.

Signs of trouble

Justice Secretary Ken Clarke, due to speak this morning, could be a source of concern for coalition operatives -- always unpredictable, this weekend he went on record to register his concern that Britain could be heading for a double-dip recession, striking a pessimistic note ahead of a conference at which the Tories will be striving to strike an optimistic note.

In addition to his economic pronouncements, the former chancellor will use his conference speech today to announce new plans to create jobs for prisoners. He is expected to announce plans to involve private companies in creating jobs for prisoners, and perhaps even the creation of special "workplace prisons". Tory grassroots are already reported to be unhappy with Clarke's previous announcements that rehabilitation and community sentences will be used to ease the burden on prisons, and today's speech, with its rhetoric about jails providing "a regime of hard work", will be an attempt by Clarke to appease his critics within his own party.

On the fringe

The New Statesman hosts a panel discussion, chaired by Mehdi Hasan, entitled Gaza life support: Is aid a failure of politics?, with Alan Duncan MP, Robin Kealy from Medical Aid to Palestine, NS contributor Ed Platt, and Chris Doyle, director of the Council for Arab-British Understanding. 1pm, Cullinan Suite, Copthorne Hotel.

Elsewhere, David Davis MP, Alex Deane of Big Brother Watch, and Matthew Elliott, founder of the Taxpayers' Alliance and campaign director for the No2AV campaign, come together for an event entitled Civil Liberties under the Coalition. 3.15pm, Austin Court.

Today's agenda

10:00 Public services - Andrew Lansley and Michael Gove

11.30 Cutting crime, reforming justice - Ken Clarke and Theresa May

14.30 Reforming welfare - Iain Duncan Smith

15.45 Tackling global poverty - Andrew Mitchell

Caroline Crampton is web editor of the New Statesman.

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Why the Labour rebels have delayed their leadership challenge

MPs hope that Jeremy Corbyn may yet resign, while Owen Smith is competing with Angela Eagle to be the candidate.

The Eagle has hovered but not yet landed. Yesterday evening Angela Eagle's team briefed that she would launch her leadership challenge at 3pm today. A senior MP told me: "the overwhelming view of the PLP is that she is the one to unite Labour." But by this lunchtime it had become clear that Eagle wouldn't declare today.

The delay is partly due to the hope that Jeremy Corbyn may yet be persuaded to resign. Four members of his shadow cabinet - Clive Lewis, Rachel Maskell, Cat Smith and Andy McDonald - were said by sources to want the Labour leader to stand down. When they denied that this was the case, I was told: "Then they're lying to their colleagues". There is also increasing speculation that Corbyn has come close to departing. "JC was five minutes away from resigning yesterday," an insider said. "But Seumas [Milne] torpedoed the discussions he was having with Tom Watson." 

Some speak of a potential deal under which Corbyn would resign in return for a guarantee that an ally, such as John McDonnell or Lewis, would make the ballot. But others say there is not now, never has there ever been, any prospect of Corbyn departing. "The obligation he feels to his supporters is what sustains him," a senior ally told me. Corbyn's supporters, who are confident they can win a new leadership contest, were cheered by Eagle's delay. "The fact even Angela isn't sure she should be leader is telling, JC hasn't wavered once," a source said. But her supporters say she is merely waiting for him to "do the decent thing". 

Another reason for the postponement is a rival bid by Owen Smith. Like Eagle, the former shadow work and pensions secrtary is said to have collected the 51 MP/MEP nominations required to stand. Smith, who first revealed his leadership ambitions to me in an interview in January, is regarded by some as the stronger candidate. His supporters fear that Eagle's votes in favour of the Iraq war and Syria air strikes (which Smith opposed) would be fatal to her bid. 

On one point Labour MPs are agreed: there must be just one "unity candidate". But after today's delay, a challenger may not be agreed until Monday. In the meantime, the rebels' faint hope that Corbyn may depart endures. 

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.