Miliband: We can win the election

Foreign Secretary David Miliband urges Labour to defend its record, be candid about its strengths an

At the next election, foreign policy can be a winner for Labour. But only if we demonstrate why it is integral to Britain’s security and opportunity, set out a clear vision of British foreign policy that draws on our values, and show why progressive ends cannot be delivered by conservative means.

Foreign policy used to be considered enemy territory for the left. It was the realm where national interest had to take precedence over progressive values.

I think that version of foreign policy is out-dated. The promotion of our values are not a distraction from national interests, but the best way of securing them.

By progressive values, I really mean the two traditions that gave birth to this party: the radical liberal tradition that emphasises individual freedom and democratic rights; and the social democratic emphasis on a more just and equal distribution of resources. Both are critical to furthering our national interests.

Promoting democracy and human rights is the best way of protecting Britain. The main threats to security emanate from countries in weak states, with little rule of law, and no democratic accountability; or authoritarian states where power is unchecked.

Reducing inequalities in income, wealth and power are not only desirable things in their own right, they contribute to a safer world.

The Tories now claim to agree with our goals. But David Cameron says that “progressive ends will best be met through conservative means.” And that is the new con, in Cameron’s conservatives. You cannot deliver progressive ends by Tory isolationism from Europe and Tory anti-statism.

Think of the things we want to achieve in the world, and imagine how you do them without a strong European Union. Democracy has taken root in eastern Europe, in large part, because of the attraction of joining the largest single market in the world. When the EU sets new low-carbon vehicle emission standards, it transforms the global car market. Inequality will only be addressed by the EU playing its part in securing a conclusion to the Doha trade round.

The Tories excessive faith in the power of the nation is ill-suited to an interdependent world. But so too is the Tories excessive scepticism in the power of the state. Climate change will not be addressed without incentives to move from high carbon to low carbon technology. Financial markets need more effective regulation. Poverty will not be tackled without large transfers of income. On their own markets, do not produce the global public goods we need; markets have to be shaped by states.

If the Tories were in power. I fear the Tories would oscillate between hubris and fatalism: between thinking they can achieve more than they can with the means at their disposal; and then retreating to a more conventional foreign policy, preserving narrowly defined national interests, forgetting that poverty and authoritarianism will store up problems that will spill over into our borders.

So my message is simple. We can win the next election because it is our party that has the right values to deliver security and opportunity. We must defend our record, by being candid about its strengths and weaknesses. We must set out a bold vision. And we must show why conservatives means cannot deliver our progressive ends.

David Miliband is the  President and CEO of the International Rescue Committee
He was foreign secretary from 2007 until 2010 and MP for South Shields from 2001 until this year. 

Ukip's Nigel Farage and Paul Nuttall. Photo: Getty
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Is the general election 2017 the end of Ukip?

Ukip led the way to Brexit, but now the party is on less than 10 per cent in the polls. 

Ukip could be finished. Ukip has only ever had two MPs, but it held an outside influence on politics: without it, we’d probably never have had the EU referendum. But Brexit has turned Ukip into a single-issue party without an issue. Ukip’s sole remaining MP, Douglas Carswell, left the party in March 2017, and told Sky News’ Adam Boulton that there was “no point” to the party anymore. 

Not everyone in Ukip has given up, though: Nigel Farage told Peston on Sunday that Ukip “will survive”, and current leader Paul Nuttall will be contesting a seat this year. But Ukip is standing in fewer constituencies than last time thanks to a shortage of both money and people. Who benefits if Ukip is finished? It’s likely to be the Tories. 

Is Ukip finished? 

What are Ukip's poll ratings?

Ukip’s poll ratings peaked in June 2016 at 16 per cent. Since the leave campaign’s success, that has steadily declined so that Ukip is going into the 2017 general election on 4 per cent, according to the latest polls. If the polls can be trusted, that’s a serious collapse.

Can Ukip get anymore MPs?

In the 2015 general election Ukip contested nearly every seat and got 13 per cent of the vote, making it the third biggest party (although is only returned one MP). Now Ukip is reportedly struggling to find candidates and could stand in as few as 100 seats. Ukip leader Paul Nuttall will stand in Boston and Skegness, but both ex-leader Nigel Farage and donor Arron Banks have ruled themselves out of running this time.

How many members does Ukip have?

Ukip’s membership declined from 45,994 at the 2015 general election to 39,000 in 2016. That’s a worrying sign for any political party, which relies on grassroots memberships to put in the campaigning legwork.

What does Ukip's decline mean for Labour and the Conservatives? 

The rise of Ukip took votes from both the Conservatives and Labour, with a nationalist message that appealed to disaffected voters from both right and left. But the decline of Ukip only seems to be helping the Conservatives. Stephen Bush has written about how in Wales voting Ukip seems to have been a gateway drug for traditional Labour voters who are now backing the mainstream right; so the voters Ukip took from the Conservatives are reverting to the Conservatives, and the ones they took from Labour are transferring to the Conservatives too.

Ukip might be finished as an electoral force, but its influence on the rest of British politics will be felt for many years yet. 

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