UK government borrowing rises

UK government borrowing rose by half a billion pounds in June.

According to the Office for National Statistics, public sector net borrowing, excluding interventions such as bank bailouts, was £14.4bn last month.

While tax revenues increased in the month by 3.6 per cent to £40.9bn, total government spending only dipped by less than 1 per cent to £52.4bn.

This is up from £13.9bn in June 2011, and raises doubt over the government’s ability to meet full-year targets to bring down borrowing.

Borrowing in 2011-12 was also revised downwards. The ONS has said today that borrowing in the last financial year was actually £125.7bn, down from the original estimate of £127.6bn that it made last month.

The figures come after the International Monetary Fund said this week that the government should slow the pace of the tough austerity measures if the economy fails to pick up.

Colin Edwards, economist at the Centre for Business and Economic Research (Cebr), said, "The ability of the government to borrow at historically low interest rates – the yield on 10-year government bonds currently stands around 1.5 per cent - provides some room for manoeuvre in the government’s attempts to reduce the deficit. Indeed, the debate over the pace of fiscal consolidation gathered momentum this week as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) slashed its forecast GDP growth for the UK to 0.2 per cent for 2012 from 0.8 per cent in its April forecast, bringing it closer to Cebr’s most recent forecast for a 0.2 per cent contraction this year.

"Against this backdrop, the OBR forecast for public sector net borrowing to fall this year by around £10bn looks under threat. Hence, the government is between a rock and a hard place: economic growth is minimal and the deficit appears to be rising again. The IMF’s remarks this week mean the debate around easing the pace of fiscal consolidation is likely to gather momentum in the lead up to the Autumn Statement."

This article first appeared in economia.

Photograph: Getty Images

Helen Roxburgh is the online editor of Economia

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How will Labour handle the Trident vote?

Shadow cabinet ministers have been promised a free vote and dismiss suggestions that the party should abstain. 

At some point this year MPs will vote on whether Trident should be renewed. It is politics, rather than policy, that will likely determine the timing. With Labour more divided on the nuclear question than any other, the Tories aim to inflict maximum damage on the opposition. Some want an early vote in order to wreak havoc ahead of the May elections, while others suggest waiting until autumn in the hope that the unilateralist Jeremy Corbyn may have changed party policy by then.  

Urged at PMQs by Conservative defence select committee chair Julian Lewis to "do the statesmanlike thing" and hold the vote "as soon as possible", Cameron replied: "We should have the vote when we need to have the vote and that is exactly what we will do" - a reply that does little to settle the matter. 

As I've reported before, frontbenchers have been privately assured by Corbyn that they and other Labour MPs will have a free vote on the issue. Just seven of the shadow cabinet's 31 members support unilateral disarmament, with Tom Watson, Andy Burnham, Hilary Benn and Angela Eagle among those committed to Trident renewal. But interviewed on the Today programme yesterday, after her gruelling PLP appearance, Emily Thornberry suggested that Labour may advise MPs to abstain. Noting that there was no legal requirement for the Commons to vote on the decision (and that MPs did so in 2007), she denounced the Tories for "playing games". But the possibility that Labour could ignore the vote was described to me by one shadow cabinet member as "madness". He warned that Labour would appear entirely unfit to govern if it abstained on a matter of national security. 

But with Trident renewal a fait accompli, owing to the Conservatives' majority, the real battle is to determine Labour's stance at the next election. Sources on both sides are doubtful that Corbyn will have the support required to change policy at the party conference, with the trade unions, including the pro-Trident Unite and GMB, holding 50 per cent of the vote. And Trident supporters also speak of their success against the left in constituency delegate elections. One described the Corbyn-aligned Momentum as a "clickocracy" that ultimately failed to turn out when required. 

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.