The FICO/EFMA European Credit Risk Outlook report, released yesterday, shows that a “credit gap” looms for small European businesses in 2012.
Looking over the next six months, 31 per cent of respondents in the FICO/EFMA report forecast that the aggregate amount of credit requested by small businesses will increase, while just 13 per cent say the amount of credit extended will increase.
That is the widest credit gap for small businesses in the past 12 months.
In most European countries, it seems that the economic climate is going to shrink consumers’ and small businesses’ demand for credit.
But according to FICO, supply of credit will continue to fall faster than demand.
Contrast the findings of that report with the party line from the British Bankers Association.
"SMEs are paying back more than the new borrowing they are taking. Deposits held on accounts are also higher than loans outstanding. All of this means that, while banks have funds to lend, demand for business credit is low."
So there you have it. Banks claim that demand for credit is low so that they may not meet their Merlin lending targets; small firms say they are struggling to access finance.
The chances are that both supply and demand of credit are both in decline. But crucially, the supply of credit is shrinking faster than the demand for loans. We all know what will mean for any chance of economic growth. As for any prospect of a fall in unemployment if things remain as they are: forget it.