Have the Tories won a jubilee poll bounce?

Labour's lead is down to nine points in the latest poll.

There's been much talk about whether the Conservatives will enjoy a "Jubilee bounce" in the polls, so it's worth noting that Labour's lead is down to nine points in the latest YouGov poll, having previously stood at an average of 12. The hope among the Tories is that the extended weekend will have left most voters feeling more content with the state of the nation.

A nine-point lead, of course, is still large enough for Labour to win a substantial majority even after the coalition's proposed boundary changes have been implemented. Indeed, as I've noted before, the biggest obstacle to a Tory majority at the next election is that Cameron's party will need a lead of seven points on a uniform swing to win a majority (compared to one of 11 points at present), while Labour will need a lead of just four.

We'll find out tonight whether the YouGov poll is indicative of a modest Conservative recovery or simply an outlier.

Update: Labour's lead remains at nine in tonight's YouGov poll. It looks like the Tories are enjoying a jubilee poll bounce.

 

Prime Minister David Cameron reads during the service of thanksgiving to mark the Queen's Diamond Jubilee at St Paul's cathedral. Photograph: Getty Images.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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Italian PM Matteo Renzi resigns after referendum No vote

Europe's right-wing populists cheered the result. 

Italy's centrist Prime Minister Matteo Renzi was forced to resign late on Sunday after he lost a referendum on constitutional change.

With most ballots counted, 60 per cent of Italians voted No to change, according to the BBC. The turn out was nearly 70 per cent. 

Voters were asked whether they backed a reform to Italy's complex political system, but right-wing populists have interpreted the referendum as a wider poll on the direction of the country.

Before the result, former Ukip leader Nigel Farage tweeted: "Hope the exit polls in Italy are right. This vote looks to me to be more about the Euro than constitutional change."

The leader of France's far-right Front National, Marine Le Pen, tweeted "bravo" to her Eurosceptic "friend" Matteo Salvini, a politician who campaigned for the No vote. She described the referendum result as a "thirst for liberty". 

In his resignation speech, Renzi told reporters he took responsibility for the outcome and added "good luck to us all". 

Since gaining office in 2014, Renzi has been a reformist politician. He introduced same-sex civil unions, made employment laws more flexible and abolished small taxes, and was known by some as "Europe's last Blairite".

However, his proposed constitutional reforms divided opinion even among liberals, because of the way they removed certain checks and balances and handed increased power to the government.

 

Julia Rampen is the editor of The Staggers, The New Statesman's online rolling politics blog. She was previously deputy editor at Mirror Money Online and has worked as a financial journalist for several trade magazines.