Have the Tories won a jubilee poll bounce?

Labour's lead is down to nine points in the latest poll.

There's been much talk about whether the Conservatives will enjoy a "Jubilee bounce" in the polls, so it's worth noting that Labour's lead is down to nine points in the latest YouGov poll, having previously stood at an average of 12. The hope among the Tories is that the extended weekend will have left most voters feeling more content with the state of the nation.

A nine-point lead, of course, is still large enough for Labour to win a substantial majority even after the coalition's proposed boundary changes have been implemented. Indeed, as I've noted before, the biggest obstacle to a Tory majority at the next election is that Cameron's party will need a lead of seven points on a uniform swing to win a majority (compared to one of 11 points at present), while Labour will need a lead of just four.

We'll find out tonight whether the YouGov poll is indicative of a modest Conservative recovery or simply an outlier.

Update: Labour's lead remains at nine in tonight's YouGov poll. It looks like the Tories are enjoying a jubilee poll bounce.

 

Prime Minister David Cameron reads during the service of thanksgiving to mark the Queen's Diamond Jubilee at St Paul's cathedral. Photograph: Getty Images.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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What did Jeremy Corbyn really say about Bin Laden?

He's been critiqued for calling Bin Laden's death a "tragedy". But what did Jeremy Corbyn really say?

Jeremy Corbyn is under fire for describing Bin Laden’s death as a “tragedy” in the Sun, but what did the Labour leadership frontrunner really say?

In remarks made to Press TV, the state-backed Iranian broadcaster, the Islington North MP said:

“This was an assassination attempt, and is yet another tragedy, upon a tragedy, upon a tragedy. The World Trade Center was a tragedy, the attack on Afghanistan was a tragedy, the war in Iraq was a tragedy. Tens of thousands of people have died.”

He also added that it was his preference that Osama Bin Laden be put on trial, a view shared by, among other people, Barack Obama and Boris Johnson.

Although Andy Burnham, one of Corbyn’s rivals for the leadership, will later today claim that “there is everything to play for” in the contest, with “tens of thousands still to vote”, the row is unlikely to harm Corbyn’s chances of becoming Labour leader. 

Stephen Bush is editor of the Staggers, the New Statesman’s political blog.