Musharraf's departure will not bring peace

Published 21 August 2008

Pakistan is breathing a sigh of relief - but Musharraf has left the country in a total mess

Farewell, President Pervez Musharraf. The military dictator of Pakistan jumped ship and resigned on 18 August, before he could be impeached. Pakistan is breathing a sigh of relief. There is dancing in the streets. Even the stock market is bouncing back.

Musharraf's departure is no surprise. His popularity had nosedived when his allies lost the February general election. Even the army that brought him into power in 1999 deserted him. A detailed charge sheet, with allegations that the president had diverted $700m of US aid for the "war on terror" to the infamous Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) and for his own purposes, was ready to go to parliament. But his fate was really sealed when Washington began to refuse to take his calls.

Musharraf's exit is a victory for the two main political parties in Pakistan. The Pakistan People's Party, now led by Asif Ali Zardari, widower of the assassinated Benazir Bhutto, and the Pakistan Muslim League-N, led by Nawaz Sharif, the former prime minister who was deposed by Musharraf, collaborated with each other to remove the former general. Zardari and Sharif stood their ground and refused to give in to pressure from the US, Britain and Saudi Arabia, the former general's main supporters.

Musharraf has left his country in a total mess. The "war on terror" is being lost. The economy is in tatters, with inflation out of control, at its highest for 30 years. Stocks have plummeted and the rupee has lost a quarter of its value in less than three months. Basic commodities such as wheat, sugar and oil are beyond the means of most Pakistanis. Power cuts are a daily occurrence. The issue of the Supreme Court judges removed by Musharraf remains unsettled. The relationship with neighbouring India has deteriorated severely. The removal of an exceptionally unpopular ex-general from power will buy the politicians some time. But they won't have long before the populace takes to the streets again.

Zardari's popularity is already on the wane. There is little love lost between him and the judiciary. Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry, whom Musharraf suspended in March 2007 as chief justice of the Pakistan Supreme Court and who led the initial agitation against Musharraf, has an intense hatred for Zardari. Not surprisingly, Zardari is not keen to restore him. A reappointed Chaudhry would pursue long-standing corruption charges against him and probably overturn the amnesty Zardari received from Musharraf through a special ordinance.

Than there is the all-powerful army. Further unrest, economic woes, and food riots in particular could bring the military back into politics. The armed forces are also keeping a beady eye on relations with India. If Delhi flexes its military muscle, the army would be keen to take over. Paradoxically, India would prefer a strong military leader in Pakistan. It has already expressed concern that Musharraf's departure has left a power vacuum, giving free rein to radical extremists.

But most Pakistanis regard India's existence as an opportunity rather than a threat. There is a strong people's movement dedicated to developing friendly bilateral relations. A large contingent of NGOs and citizens turned up at the border post of Wagah, near Lahore, on 15 August to celebrate the independence day of the two countries. They responded enthusiastically to shouts of "Long live Pakistan!" from the Indian side. When the Indians and Pakistanis started dancing together, however, the Pakistanis were baton-charged and beaten up: the military does not approve of too much familiarity.

It is up to Sharif, the more experienced partner in the governing coalition, both to keep the army at bay and to restore good relations with India. He has been obsessed with taking revenge on Musharraf, to the extent that he paid little attention to Pakistan's worsening security situation and the collapsing economy. Now, with Musharraf out of the way, Sharif can turn his considerable political skills towards more pressing problems. Where Pakistan goes next depends a great deal on him.

Ziauddin Sardar's "Balti Britain: a Journey Through the British Asian Experience" is published by Granta Books (£25)

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10 comments from readers

Lutful Islam
21 August 2008 at 10:20

Dear Mr Sardar,

Please do not wish more doom on Pakistan by giving any value to Mr. Nawaz Shareef. This is the man who installed a hard-line cleric as the president of Pakistan. I am very sure that Taliban will love him to be in control of Pakistan. He will give them their Shariah law and turn Pakistan into one large terror factory.

Regards,

Lutf ul Islam

Sharif
21 August 2008 at 17:26

I seem to agree with LuftulIslam; Nawaz Sharif (NO relative of mine) does incline to support sharia laws. But PPP is relatively secular; just look around and see women in power, PPP wants even wants to install a woman as President. I will take Sherry Rehman any day.

But really they should take somebody from Baluchistan or from the so-called Urdu speaking people. Musharaf was one and I know sooo many Mohajirs who loved him and would not accept any wrong word about him. Now they are dejected. They are educated, middle class and have had nobody representing them since the demise of Jinnah and Liaqat in early years. Of course I am not saying he or she should be from MQM.

Democracy in Pakistan is like a child; it needs time to mature and now we are facing the adolescent pains; Nawaz demands something, if he does not get it, threatens to quit the government. A smaller party cannot dictate a majority party. This is something the new men and women need to learn. But we do not want Sharia laws and curtailing powers to women.

nawawimohamad
22 August 2008 at 10:30

The Pakistanis have to face the fact that Musharraf has past its expiry date as stamped by the US. The power vacuum is what the US has been planning and shall then install its new puppet in the form of Kalyani the CIA groomed general, no matter what the political outcome is.

The US have no choice but to take control of Pakistan and thus manage to open a new front to fight the al-Qaeda and the Talibans urgently.

All these are necessary because the US is now trying to surround and face Russia by installing the missiles in Poland, persuading NATO to counter Russia, having US military personnels and machines in Georgia, military bases in the Balkans and a US fleet in the Ukraine waters. The US has also managed to test Russian capabilities during the Georgian conflict recently. It would not be s surprise if the US decided to withdraw its army from Iraq and compromise considerable amount of its objectives in Iraq. With a new puppet in Pakistan, the US will no more be pre-occupied with Afghanistan and the US can concentrate on Russia.The US wants to prevent Russia from becoming strong again as the Russian is now consolidating its resources.

This is also the reason why the US is not taking military action on Iran, moreover Israel is ever ready to take on any mischiefs in the middle-east. As for China, it is a no issue because its economy is still very fragile and dependent on the US, moreoever much of China's coffers have been siphoned out by the stagging of the olympics. The US has also made some arrangements with Tibet and has tested China with the recent unrests a few months before the olympics.

So please look at the bigger picture then just looking at Pakistan as an isolated case.

writeon
22 August 2008 at 13:55

What I think is a terrible tragedy, even worse something close to madness, is the seemingly inevitable drift towards the conflict in Afghanistan spreading into Pakistan. The West, which is really the Americans, seem almost determined to push, pressure and destabilize Pakistan with demands and interference in its internal affairs.

The prospect of Pakistan becoming even more unstable and perhaps sliding into civil unrest or even civil war, is a prospect that is hard to fathom, hard too grasp how dangerous this is. Yet the Americans, with their ignorance and stupidity, keep putting gigantic pressure on Pakistan to join their crazed 'war on terror' . This risks tearing Pakistan appart.

Now we learn that the Americans are actively planning to send thousands more troops to Afghanistan and really kick some ass, and mount an agressive campaign by special forces to 'decapitate' the 'Taliban' leadership whereever they find them! This means attacking the border regions of Pakistan. It means killing lots of people. It means eventual disaster. The Americans are distabilizing the world with potentially catastrophic consequences.

literati
22 August 2008 at 22:23

Thats all there is when it comes to Pakistani politics - a load of hot air. Has anyone else noticed this? Its what Pakistani politicians love doing - talking alot about this and that, and how things should be or shouldn't be, and whose right and whose wrong. They've been doing it for 60 years and it has done nothing, absolutely nothing to advance the project that is Pakistan or the ordinary person on the street. They just keep talking.

Sharif
23 August 2008 at 08:10

The generals do not give these politicians any time to mature. When is the next one going to march to rule the hapless civilians. The reason why many do not like so much 'talking' is that they are brought up in families, where 'Father' decided everything and the kids and women were just there to say: Yes father.

They find it strange that everybody talks and give different opinions. Only when everybody talks, you decide what is best. Not talking means dictatorship.

I remember visiting a family in Karachi and at the dinner table the daughter asked her father she can't learn driving a car. The father shut her up by saying: You annoy me asking me this or that. I do not want you talk on the dinner table. The daughter shut up. You see literati the difference? If you shut others up, you don't know what they think, but the 'father' has peace of mind.

Sharif
23 August 2008 at 08:12

It should have read: the daughter asked her father why she can't learn driving a car.

sweetkaseh
09 September 2008 at 03:50

It is amazing the Pakistanis, for once have a decent relatively honest dictator like Pervert, and they want to change him for soneone worst!

gnuneo
12 September 2008 at 12:56

writeon: once again you hit the spot. We really have to meet up sometime! :)

the Imperial attitudes of the US Elite are staggeringly naive, stupid and suicidal. The Earth is no longer in the times when one nation can dominate the whole world, with only the threat of local insurrection against the global power's local occupying troops. To deliberately destabilise Pakistan, a nuclear armed state next door to another regionally competitive nuclear armed power is something even previous belligerent US administrations would have shrank back from - it is an error of colossal, appalling proportions, and act that could potentially make not only the attack on Iraq, and the threatened attack on Iran, seem like child's-play.

the entire world is fully aware that the WoT is a charade, a chimera dreamt up by the neo-conservative think-tanks in order to cover their dreams and ambitions to 'rule' the world. (translation - organise the world to siphon off the productive wealth into their own personal coffers, just like every Empire before them). To imagine the Pakistanis will allow the US Elite to continue to play their lethal games against their population is ridiculous, and indeed we have seen with the 'fall' of Musharref that they have quite simply had enough - the People of Pakistan choose Zarwadi, despite him being loathed with a passion for his overt corruption and nepotism, rather than the US stooge who was unable to stand up to the US demands.

Pakistan, always a relatively unstable nation, is now destabilising extraordinarily rapidly, and every 'effort' the West will make to supposedly 'stabilise' it will have the opposite effect. And at the same time we have the US once again pushing at the Russians trying to provoke them into conflict.

and at the same time we have environmental collapse across pretty much every global ecosystem.

we, the Human species, can no longer afford the mental insanity of the Imperial meme. We have the chance now to evolve into something that can explore space, that can create a paradise world of Earth, that can end poverty, starvation, and most diseases. We have the choice between that, or temporarily going back to Feudalism, and global power struggles wasting our resources upon warfare for meaningless 'historic' titles such as 'Global Imperator'. I say temporary, because with the access to physical power we now have, such a situation WILL lead to global destruction.

we have a choice - we can grow up, or we can collectively die. The situation in Pakistan is a microcosm of this global struggle against feudalism and decay, and it is to be noted that every action the Imperialists take now, will cause a negative reaction against them.

We, the Peoples of Earth, have had enough. Enough insanity and socio-pathology, enough slaughter, murder and mayhem, enough profiteering by the few from the many. Enough lies, slander and warfare, enough racism, sexism and 'clash of civilisations'.

the question is - will we do anything about it/them, or will we let them destroy us and our planet?

tyneham
22 September 2008 at 14:38

Pakistan power cuts, another ENRON? by Parveez Syed http://FixyaExperts.wordpress.com, http://FixyaExperts.blogspot.com

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About the writer

Ziauddin Sardar, writer and broadcaster, describes himself as a ‘critical polymath’. He is the author of over 40 books, including the highly acclaimed ‘Desperately Seeking Paradise’. He is Visiting Professor, School of Arts, the City University, London and editor of ‘Futures’, the monthly journal of planning, policy and futures studies.