An aura of incompetence has been added to accusations of sleaze and arrogance. The Home Office débâcle makes a drubbing all the more likely
How can this government stand accused simultaneously of alienating its middle-class constituency over civil liberties and of ignoring the concerns of its core working-class voters? It is enough to confound even a masterful political tactician such as Tony Blair. But this is the unhappy situation Labour finds itself in before the local elections on 4 May.
Before looking at the causes of the malaise, one must take account of certain caveats. A year into a new parliament is rarely an opportune moment for a serving government, least of all one in its third term of office. Furthermore, according to the polls, the Conservatives, the main opposition party, are not expected to benefit greatly, even with a young leader hailed as pleasantly different from his predecessors.
The only outcome that can be predicted with any confidence is another terrible turnout. As a result, the prejudices and concerns of those who do bother to vote will carry disproportionate weight. Much has been made in recent weeks of an anticipated surge in support for the British National Party. Precedent suggests that they will enjoy a boost in a small number of areas, but that this support will dissipate over time, particularly if the party actually wins any council seats. There is nothing like the responsibility of power to disabuse voters of easy solutions.
None of this is to invite complacency. Not only are the views of the BNP noxious, but any big breakthrough will reinforce the conclusion of those in the mainstream parties that their main failing has been to come across as too "soft" on the issues of immigration and race. If ever proof were needed that these are truly minority preoccupations, Michael Howard's defeat in the 2005 general election should have provided that.
Yet this government has strained every sinew to ensure that it cannot be accused of going soft on what it regards as the more legitimate concerns of the "ordinary voter" - crime and antisocial behaviour. Rarely has an opportunity been missed to enact legislation or conjure up an initiative. The misfortune of ministers, however, is to have reinforced the powers of law-and-order agencies without convincing voters that they have made their streets any safer. Media stories of police preferring to hand out counselling forms to victims rather than chase down the felon resonate because they accord with personal experiences. On a larger scale, ministers grant fresh powers to the security services and others that erode our basic freedoms - from ID cards and control orders to other forms of surveillance - without providing plausible evidence that the sacrifice would make much difference in preventing further terrorist attacks.
Flailing around, ministers resort to sound and fury: most recently Charles Clarke's remarkable attack on the liberal commentariat. It was astonishing not for his targets - journalists dish it out, so they should be able to take it - but for the desperation underlying the rhetoric. There is no simple trade-off between individual rights, hard-won and easily lost, and the need to protect citizens from indiscriminate violence. We have a right to expect better of politicians with close to a decade of experience in office.
And then, within 24 hours of berating the fourth estate, this very same home secretary found himself teetering on the brink of resignation as he admitted that 1,000 foreign nationals, after serving their sentences, had been freed from prison without being considered for deportation - a failure of administration that has long been characteristic of his particular government department. As we go to press, Clarke's future appears to depend on whether any of those former criminals is found to have caused a further violent offence. His commendable contrition and directness in admit- ting error have won him time. He should now apply his new-found humility to withdrawing his previous remarks. After all, the hypocrisy of his lecture about the foibles of the liberal-minded will be lost on no one.
The broader political damage is immense; the timing of the revelations could not be worse. It will play into the hands of those who, like the BNP, make the simplistic link between foreigners, asylum and criminality. If Labour feared a drubbing before, the Home Office débâcle makes that a near certainty. An aura of incompetence has been added to accusations of sleaze (loans for peerages the latest in a litany) and arrogance (Patricia Hewitt's sanguine remarks on the health service may have been largely correct in fact but her tone was lamentably misplaced).
Thus voters are again forced into making a grim choice: between a Labour government that too often focuses its ire on the wrong targets, a Tory opposition whose newly claimed eco- and social-justice credentials struggle to convince, Lib Dem and Green alternatives that appeal fleetingly to some, and the far-right extremes of the dispossessed.
Lost among all this is the issue of which local authority runs local services best - and the discrepancies from area to area are greater than ever. It would be heartening if voters made their choice informed, if only in part, by the performance of their council, and rewarding those who do well.
The battle for the Labour succession has abated in recent weeks. Within hours of the votes being counted, the calls for Blair to stand down will ring out again. Just as likely will be his determination to fend them off. His best hope on election night will be a fragmented vote, with media attention dispersed between Labour's poor showing, a lack of Tory recovery and a BNP threat. All the while, the process of alienation, seemingly inexorable, gathers pace.
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