Social Sentiment Analysis: Robson, Murray and Janowicz: Brought to you by Wimbledon Insights.

In association with IBM.

With both Laura Robson and Andy Murray playing Centre Court today, it was inevitable that British players would dominate the Wimbledon action on Twitter today. Tracking tweets and analysing their content, IBM’s social sentiment analytics gave Robson an enviable Positive Sentiment score of 92%, with the number of tweets about her boosted by support from three of five members of UK boy band, One Direction. “Robson going in the right direction. Certainly the best female British tennis player I’ve seen. Had the ferocity that Durie, Smith, Wade lacked” tweeted @chelseaboy1971. “I think Laura Robson will be world No.1 one day. She’s got placement, power and a winning mentality.” Agreed @Joe380.

Later, Andy Murray might have been trailing his opponent on the Positive Sentiment front, with a score of 83% to Tommy Robredo’s 87%, but he was beating him in both the tennis and the tweets. At peak towards the end of the second set, Murray was the subject of approximately 180 tweets per minute to Robredo’s 50.

While Murray is trying hard not to get ahead of himself, the same can’t be said of his fans. “I’m not sure anyone in the world is playing as well as Andy Murray right now #no1inwaiting” said @briandick. “If Andy Murray doesn’t win Wimbledon I’m calling it a choke. He is playing a different level of Tennis” tweeted @grantthompson15. Even @piersmorgan was making bold predictions. “I’m telling you… @andy_murray is going to win #Wimbledon this year. Bet your house on it” tweeted the self-proclaimed “#MysticMorgan”.

Beyond the Brits, there was plenty of praise for the Polish world No.22, Jerzy Janowicz, and not quite so much for his opponent, Nicolas Almagro. By the end of three sets Janowicz was the subject of over 400 tweets in ten minutes, with a positive sentiment score of 85% to his opponent’s 68%. “Janowicz is impressive. Almagro has no answers” tweeted @RupertBell. “Janowicz is killing Almagro with his serve” concurred @pauffley. For many, this tweet from @HudAnSonDob says it all: “Wish I was at centre court to witness this match, looks awesome. Janowicz is a star of the future.”

Stuart Andrews

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A year on from the Spending Review, the coalition's soothsayer has emerged to offer another gloomy economic prognosis. Asked by ITV News whether he could promise that there wouldn't be a double-dip recession, Vince Cable replied: "I can't do that.

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Autumn Statement 2015: George Osborne abandons his target

How will George Osborne close the deficit after his U-Turns? Answer: he won't, of course. 

“Good governments U-Turn, and U-Turn frequently.” That’s Andrew Adonis’ maxim, and George Osborne borrowed heavily from him today, delivering two big U-Turns, on tax credits and on police funding. There will be no cuts to tax credits or to the police.

The Office for Budget Responsibility estimates that, in total, the government gave away £6.2 billion next year, more than half of which is the reverse to tax credits.

Osborne claims that he will still deliver his planned £12bn reduction in welfare. But, as I’ve written before, without cutting tax credits, it’s difficult to see how you can get £12bn out of the welfare bill. Here’s the OBR’s chart of welfare spending:

The government has already promised to protect child benefit and pension spending – in fact, it actually increased pensioner spending today. So all that’s left is tax credits. If the government is not going to cut them, where’s the £12bn come from?

A bit of clever accounting today got Osborne out of his hole. The Universal Credit, once it comes in in full, will replace tax credits anyway, allowing him to describe his U-Turn as a delay, not a full retreat. But the reality – as the Treasury has admitted privately for some time – is that the Universal Credit will never be wholly implemented. The pilot schemes – one of which, in Hammersmith, I have visited myself – are little more than Potemkin set-ups. Iain Duncan Smith’s Universal Credit will never be rolled out in full. The savings from switching from tax credits to Universal Credit will never materialise.

The £12bn is smaller, too, than it was this time last week. Instead of cutting £12bn from the welfare budget by 2017-8, the government will instead cut £12bn by the end of the parliament – a much smaller task.

That’s not to say that the cuts to departmental spending and welfare will be painless – far from it. Employment Support Allowance – what used to be called incapacity benefit and severe disablement benefit – will be cut down to the level of Jobseekers’ Allowance, while the government will erect further hurdles to claimants. Cuts to departmental spending will mean a further reduction in the numbers of public sector workers.  But it will be some way short of the reductions in welfare spending required to hit Osborne’s deficit reduction timetable.

So, where’s the money coming from? The answer is nowhere. What we'll instead get is five more years of the same: increasing household debt, austerity largely concentrated on the poorest, and yet more borrowing. As the last five years proved, the Conservatives don’t need to close the deficit to be re-elected. In fact, it may be that having the need to “finish the job” as a stick to beat Labour with actually helped the Tories in May. They have neither an economic imperative nor a political one to close the deficit. 

Stephen Bush is editor of the Staggers, the New Statesman’s political blog.