Not the first or the last massacre

Syria's crisis could be long and bloody.

Not the first or the last massacre
Kofi Annan. Photograph: Getty Images

As the world condemned the slaughter of more than 100 people, among them dozens of children, in Houla, Syria, the United Nations and Arab League envoy Kofi Annan challenged President Bashar al-Assad to take “bold steps” to prove that the Syrian government is serious about resolving the crisis peacefully. Annan called for an immediate end to the violence and the release of detainees. Speaking to the opposition, he said, “This message of peace is not only for the government but for everyone with a gun.”

The odds are against the Annan initiative. Time and again, the ceasefire has been violated and the Syrian authorities have failed to withdraw most of their heavy armour from urban centres. As for dialogue, there exists no common ground between the multifaceted opposition and the Assad regime.

Syria is in the grip of an armed conflict and there is no end in sight. Chaos and violence have spread, including kidnappings, assassinations and car bombings. The authorities in Damascus no longer have a monopoly on the use of force and they are unable to control the land. More and more protesters have taken up arms; the Free Syrian Army is just one among many armed units operating independently of one another. The rot has set in.

Sadly, Houla will not be the first or the last massacre in Syria. It represents, however, a watershed in the escalation of sectarian tensions between the Assad regime and its hardcore supporters, mostly Alawites, and the Sunni-dominated opposition. Syria today most closely resembles Lebanon in 1975, at the start of the civil war that lasted 15 years and almost tore the country apart.

Although the Syrian uprising was initially driven by economic and political grievances, it has become increasingly polarised along communal lines. As trust breaks down and the body count rises, people fall back on their religious, ethnic and tribal identities. Syria has not yet passed the point of no return but there is a great danger, if the bloodshed continues, that the country will descend into all-out civil strife.

Balance of power

In contrast to Libya, the Syrian crisis is exacerbated by a fierce regional cold war between Shia-based Iran and Sunni-led Saudi Arabia. The Tehran-Baghdad road is a lifeline for the besieged Assad regime. There is also increasing evidence that the Gulf states have begun to arm the rebels and they will most likely double their efforts in the coming weeks.

Meanwhile, the western powers have neither the will nor the appetite for military intervention in Syria – and Assad knows it. Despite the killings of more than 10,000 people since the uprising began 14 months ago, there has been no pronounced shift in the position of Russia, Syria’s key international ally.

Even though the Houla atrocity forced Russia to support a UN Security Council statement condemning the violence, Moscow hesitated to place sole responsibility on the Syrian egime, warning that the government there faces a rising terrorist threat that bears the “clear signature of al-Qaeda”.

Nevertheless, the scale of the slaughter has revived questions about military intervention in Syria. The chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Martin Dempsey, warned that continued atrocities could trigger military intervention – a subtle shift in the US position. But
there is little appetite for further overseas adventures. The White House distanced itself from Dempsey, and Barack Obama promised on 28 May to send US soldiers to war only when “absolutely necessary”.

Europe is also looking inwards, focusing on putting its economic and financial house in order. In the absence of a Security Council resolution authorising the use of force, no European leader would go to war over Syria.

As the crisis descends into a full-scale confrontation, the world is running out of ways to stop the killing. Atrocities could make military intervention more likely, but the west, and particularly the US, believes that the disadvantages of intervention (increased carnage and a region-wide war) outweigh the advantages of saving civilian lives.

There are a number of factors that make it difficult for outside observers to predict what will happen next. We don’t yet know what damage sanctions have done – can Syria survive another winter without access to food, heating oil or gas?

The middle classes, Assad’s support base, are fleeing the country. And there could be a rupture in the regime, perhaps arising from tensions within the state security apparatus. Ultimately, the internal balance of power in Syria will determine whether Assad goes or stays. Unlike elsewhere in the Middle East, we are likely to see a bloody, protracted conflict.

Fawaz A Gerges is a professor of international relations at the London School of Economics. His book “Obama and the Middle East: the End of America’s Moment?” will be published by Palgrave

87 comments

jankaas's picture

partitioning as a solution? no, it doesn't work. i can cite examples of where this has failed, see India & Pakistan, or, how about most of Africa;

http://www.freakonomics.com/2011/12/01/the-violent-legacy-of-africas-arb...

but maybe it can work, any examples of where partitioning did well?

and as for building walls, jesus....what planet are you lot on. you may as well suggest banning all religion, just as practical.

palme's picture

I agree with you 100 times. Don't do same as we see the situation in Asia countries.
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JJJ's picture

Once again the enigmatic Jankaas who proudly used to say on other threads 'kiss my secular a*se' now coming out in favour of religion. Well, of course, he's in favour of one religion in particular. Right, readers?

jankaas's picture

you think there are "readers" who actually give a fig? now that is funny.
sorry to see you still haven't understood what secular means, poor love.

Denise J. Miller's picture

nice thread. very interesting. thanks for sharing this information.
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Lloyd Hart's picture

The Houla Massacre: Opposition Terrorists "Killed Families Loyal to the Government"

Voltaire Network 6/1/2012

The massacre in Houla is being blamed on the Syrian government without a shred of evidence. Based on the comprehensive investigation into the events carried out by Russian news channel Vesti24, this incisive report confirms that crimes against humanity are being committed by terrorist militia. The objective is not only to isolate the al-Assad government politically and economically, but to develop a pretext and a justification for waging an R2P humanitarian war on Syria. The US Ambassador to the UN Susan Rice has hinted that, if necessary, the US and its allies may consider "taking actions outside of the Annan plan and the authority of the [UN Security] Council.” It is essential to reverse the tide of war propaganda which uses civilian deaths as a pretext to wage war, when those killings of civilians were carried out not by government forces but by professional terrorists operating under the helm of the US-NATO sponsored Free Syrian Army.

In the weekend of May 25, 2012, at about 2 PM, big groups of fighters attacked and captured the town of Al – Hula of the Homs province. Al-Houla is made up of three regions: the village of Taldou, Kafr Laha and Taldahab, each of which had previously been home for 25-30 thousand people. The town was attacked from the north-east by groups of bandits and mercenaries, numbering up to 700 people. The militants came from Ar-Rastan (the Brigade of al-Farouk from the Free Syrian Army led by the terrorist Abdul Razak Tlass and numbering 250), from the village of Akraba (led by the terrorist Yahya Al-Yousef), from the village Farlaha, joined by local gangsters, and from Al Houla.

The city of Ar-Rastan has long been abandoned by most civilians. Now Wahhabis from Lebanon dominate the scene, fueled with money and weapons by one of the main orchestrators of international terrorism, Saad Hariri, who heads the anti-Syrian political movement “Tayyar Al-Mustaqbal” (“Future Movement”). The road from Ar-Rastan to Al-Houla runs through Bedouin areas that remain mostly out of control of government troops, which made the militant attacks on Al Hula a complete surprise for the Syrian authorities.

When the rebels seized the lower checkpoint in the center of town and located next to the local police department, they began to sweep all the families loyal to the authorities in neighboring houses, including the elderly, women and children. Several families of the Al-Sayed were killed, including 20 young children and the family of the Abdul Razak. Many of those killed were “guilty” of the fact that they dared to change from Sunnis to Shiites. The people were killed with knives and shot at point blank range. Then they presented the murdered to the UN and the international community as victims of bombings by the Syrian army, something that was not verified by any marks on their bodies.

The idea that the UN observers had heard artillery fire against Al-Houla in the Safir Hotel in Homs at night… I consider nothing short of a bad joke. 50 kilometers lie between Homs and Al-Houla. What kind of tanks or guns has this range? Yes, there was intensive gunfire in Homs until 3 am, including heavy weapons. But, to give an example, on the night of Monday to Tuesday shooting was due to an attempt by law enforcement to regain control for a security corridor along the road to Damascus, Tarik Al-Sham.

After a visual inspection of Al Hula it is impossible to find traces of any of fresh destruction, bombing and shelling. During the day, several attacks by gunmen are made on the last remaining soldiers at the Taldou checkpoint. Militants used heavy weapons and snipers made up of professional mercenaries were active.

Note that once, the exact same provocation failed at Shumar (Homs) and 49 militants and women and children were killed, when it was organized just before a visit of Kofi Annan. The last provocation was immediately exposed as soon as it became known that the bodies of the previously kidnapped belonged to Alawites. This provocation also contained serious inconsistencies – the names of those killed were from people loyal to the authorities, there were no traces of bombings, etc.

However, the provocation machine is running all the same. Today, the NATO countries directly threat to bomb Syria, and a simultaneous expulsion of Syrian diplomats has begun … As of today, there are no troops within the city of Al Hula, but there are regularly heard bursts of automatic fire, nonetheless. Moreover, it is unclear whether the militants are fighting with each other, or whether supporters of Bashar al-Assad are being cleaned out.

Militants opened fire on virtually everyone who tries to get closer to the border town. Before us a UN convoy was fired upon and two armored jeeps of the UN observers were damaged, when they tried to drive up to an army checkpoint in Tal Dow.

In the attack on the convoy a twenty-year-old terrorist was spotted. The fire was directed on the unprotected slopes of the first jeep, the back door of the second armored car was hooked by a fragment. There are wounded among those accompanying.

Read the rest of the article and view the video evidence of the murder victems.
http://www.voltairenet.org/The-Houla-Massacre-Opposition

Religionsarepolitics's picture

What is next for Syria? That is simple to answer, there will be more killings, more suicide bombers, more Saudi intervention, more Iranian intervention, more refugees and misery. Regardless who is going to replace Assad, the Syrians are guaranteed to live under greater insecurity and misery.
To read more about Islam, Muslims and Arabs read my book for Free and in full at
http://www.religionsarepolitics.org/thebook.htm

jankaas's picture

i think your prognosis is about right, but how do you think your 'book' is relevant to this specific Syrian situation? having gleaned some of your highlights (raised in other threads) i fail to see how it relates. i don't mind shameless self-publicising, but at least be open about it.

religionsarepolitics's picture

I have read many of your comments on this website and you are NOT worthy of a reply other than GO AWAY.

jankaas's picture

i see, you don't approve of how i deal with trolls, WUMs and sock puppets. so be it, all the best.

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