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Ken Clarke warns: double-dip recession "still possible"

Former Chancellor says that early spending cuts may tip economy back into recession.

Ken Clarke has become the first cabinet minister to warn that Britain could fall back into recession as a result of the dramatic spending cuts and tax rises announced in George Osborne's emergency Budget.

In an appearance on BBC Radio 4's Any Questions, the Justice Secretary said that a double-dip recession was "quite possible still" and that no one could be sure of the effect Osborne's policies would have on growth.

"If we didn't do it (deficit reduction), my judgement is that interest rates would soar and if you want to stop recovery, if you want to make double-dip recession certain, and it's quite possible still, let British interest rates go up," he said.

He added: "My hope and my forecast is that we won't, but no one's sure."

As Chancellor during the last major period of fiscal retrenchment, Clarke's words carry weight in the Conservative Party and in the City of London and will increase market uncertainty.

His comments came as divisions between the US and Europe over economic policy burst into the open at the G20 summit in Toronto.

President Obama has warned of the dangers of a double-dip recession if all countries start to cut spending at once but leading European economies, especially Germany, are accelerating the pace of deficit reduction.

David Cameron insisted that he was not at odds with Obama over the timing and pace of spending cuts.

"The risk to us - which the Americans and others recognise - is not taking action," Cameron said. "I think that the G8 will conclude that those countries with the worst problems need to accelerate their actions, which is what we have done."

In an open letter to G20 leaders last week, Obama warned that cutting spending too quickly could "result in renewed economic hardship and recession".

As a result of the measures announced by Osborne in Tuesday's Budget, the Office for Budget Responsibility downgraded its growth forecast for this year from 1.3 per cent to 1.2 per cent.

But economists including David Blanchflower, a former member of the Bank of England's monetary policy committee, and Robert Skidelsky, the author of a three-volume biography of John Maynard Keynes, have warned that withdrawing fiscal stimulus, at a time when the private sector remains depressed, could tip the economy back into recession.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

Photo: Getty Images
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The Conservatives have failed on home ownership. Here's how Labour can do better

Far from helping first-time buyers, the government is robbing Peter to pay Paul

Making it easier for people to own their own first home is something to be celebrated. Most families would love to have the financial stability and permanency of home ownership. But the plans announced today to build 200,000 ‘starter homes’ are too little, too late.

The dire housing situation of our Greater London constituency of Mitcham & Morden is an indicator of the crisis across the country. In our area, house prices have increased by a staggering 42 per cent over the last three years alone, while the cost of private rent has increased by 22 per cent. Meanwhile, over 8200 residents are on the housing register, families on low incomes bidding for the small number of affordable housing in the area. In sum, these issues are making our area increasingly unaffordable for buyers, private renters and those in need of social and council housing.

But under these new plans, which sweep away planning rules that require property developers to build affordable homes for rent in order to increase the building homes for first-time buyers, a game of political smoke and mirrors is being conducted. Both renters and first-time buyers are desperately in need of government help, and a policy that pits the two against one another is robbing Peter to pay Paul. We need homes both to rent and to buy.

The fact is, removing the compulsion to provide properties for affordable rent will be disastrous for the many who cannot afford to buy. Presently, over half of the UK’s affordable homes are now built as part of private sector housing developments. Now this is going to be rolled back, and local government funds are increasingly being cut while housing associations are losing incentives to build, we have to ask ourselves, who will build the affordable properties we need to rent?

On top of this, these new houses are anything but ‘affordable’. The starter homes would be sold at a discount of 20 per cent, which is not insignificant. However, the policy is a non-starter for families on typical wages across most of the country, not just in London where the situation is even worse. Analysis by Shelter has demonstrated that families working for average local earnings will be priced out of these ‘affordable’ properties in 58 per cent of local authorities by 2020. On top of this, families earning George Osborne’s new ‘National Living Wage’ will still be priced out of 98 per cent of the country.

So who is this scheme for? Clearly not typical earners. A couple in London will need to earn £76,957 in London and £50,266 in the rest of the country to benefit from this new policy, indicating that ‘starter homes’ are for the benefit of wealthy, young professionals only.

Meanwhile, the home-owning prospects of working families on middle and low incomes will be squeezed further as the ‘Starter Homes’ discounts are funded by eliminating the affordable housing obligations of private property developers, who are presently generating homes for social housing tenants and shared ownership. These more affordable rental properties will now be replaced in essence with properties that most people will never be able to afford. It is great to help high earners own their own first homes, but it is not acceptable to do so at the expense of the prospects of middle and low earners.

We desperately want to see more first-time home owners, so that working people can work towards something solid and as financially stable as possible, rather than being at the mercy of private landlords.

But this policy should be a welcome addition to the existing range of affordable housing, rather than seeking to replace them.

As the New Statesman has already noted, the announcement is bad policy, but great politics for the Conservatives. Cameron sounds as if he is radically redressing housing crisis, while actually only really making the crisis better for high earners and large property developers who will ultimately be making a larger profit.

The Conservatives are also redefining what the priorities of “affordable housing” are, for obviously political reasons, as they are convinced that homeowners are more likely to vote for them - and that renters are not. In total, we believe this is indicative of crude political manoeuvring, meaning ordinary, working people lose out, again and again.

Labour needs to be careful in its criticism of the plans. We must absolutely fight the flawed logic of a policy that strengthens the situation of those lucky enough to already have the upper hand, at the literal expense of everyone else. But we need to do so while demonstrating that we understand and intrinsically share the universal aspiration of home security and permanency.

We need to fight for our own alternative that will broaden housing aspirations, rather than limit them, and demonstrate in Labour councils nationwide how we will fight for them. We can do this by fighting for shared ownership, ‘flexi-rent’ products, and rent-to-buy models that will make home ownership a reality for people on average incomes, alongside those earning most.

For instance, Merton council have worked in partnership with the Y:Cube development, which has just completed thirty-six factory-built, pre-fabricated, affordable apartments. The development was relatively low cost, constructed off-site, and the apartments are rented out at 65 per cent of the area’s market rent, while also being compact and energy efficient, with low maintenance costs for the tenant. Excellent developments like this also offer a real social investment for investors, while providing a solid return too: in short, profitability with a strong social conscience, fulfilling the housing needs of young renters.

First-time ownership is rapidly becoming a luxury that fewer and fewer of us will ever afford. But all hard-working people deserve a shot at it, something that the new Conservative government struggle to understand.